IC Market Espresso 17 May 2021

 
Is There Still Room for Growth of Slovenian Equities in 2021?
With SBITOP outperforming quite significantly almost every global equity index on a YTD basis, you might be asking yourself a question – is there still room for growth of Slovenian equities in 2021?

If you have been holding the Slovenian equity index since the beginning of this year, you have done your portfolio a favour. To put things into a perspective, SBITOP noted a YTD increase of close to 20%, thus outperforming virtually every global equity index so far in 2021.

However, if you are not yet invested in Slovenian equities or are thinking of holding you might be asking yourself a simple question – is there still room for growth for Slovenian equities in 2021?

In today’s blog, we will try to answer why Slovenia outperformed basically all major equity indices such as S&P500, DAX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, FTSE100, CAC40, the list goes on. And more importantly, we will try to answer why we believe that Slovenia still has more than enough room for growth.

As a reminder, in late 2020, we wrote a short research piece called “7 things to expect from Slovenia in 2021” in which we already gave a positive view on the market for 2021. So far, virtually all of our expectations have realized.

YTD Performance of Selected Indices

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

The comeback of value

If we were to look at the US market and define value as a simply low P/E and P/B and growth as high P/E and P/B, one can notice that for the past 6 decades (by decade) value stocks have almost always outperformed growth stocks with the exception of 1990s (dot com boom). However, in 2010s we observed a reversal in the US, where growth outperformed value stocks (with an emphasis on FAANG stocks). 2010s were a decade of low to no inflation, which arguably backed the outperformance of growth, while value and commodities were left out of sight of many asset managers.

If we were to look at how value and growth performed during the outbreak of Covid-19 until late 2020, we reach an interesting conclusion. What is considered as traditionally less risky (low P/E, low P/B, high dividend yield, low growth) has significantly underperformed since the outbreak of the pandemic. In that sense, this crisis is not like the previous ones. However, in late 2020 positive vaccine news and the expectations of economic normalization brought a return to cyclicals and value stocks, which have been lagging growth stocks for the majority of the rebound.

This was arguably seen as a positive sign for the Slovenian equity market as we can consider virtually all Slovenian blue chips as value stocks. Therefore, the performance of +20% YTD of SBITOP does not seem so surprising. We believe that value is here to stay or even be more pronounced for some time, as inflation remains the buzzword of financial markets. The question that remains is will most asset managers make considerable changes to their allocation to convey an increased chance of a persistent inflation? Many analysts seem to agree that this will be the case, which would imply a continuation of solid performance of value and cyclicals. As a result of the aforementioned, many analysts are expecting that emerging markets and Europe should outperform S&P500 in the coming period.   

Slovenia remains fundamentally attractive, while FY 2021 results should be encouraging

Despite begin one of the best performers so far in 2021, Slovenia still looks very much fundamentally attractive. According to Bloomberg, the index is currently traded at a P/E of 8.8x, which is by far one of the lowest multiples in the region. Such a multiple represents a significant discount to developed market (DAX is traded at a 3.7x higher P/E).

We note that 2021 will almost certainly show a rebound in operating results for the vast majority of Slovenian companies. This can be further supported by plans published by companies, in which most estimate solid 2021 results. We have already published updated company analyses of Slovenian blue chips which are available for our Research subscribers. In case you wish to receive these, feel free to contact us. 

It is also important to note that the current Covid-19 situation in Slovenia seems to be reassuring, as the country has been seeing a significant decrease in daily cases and is gradually loosening restrictions. The vaccination is taking a slower pace than the EU average according to Our World in Data, however roughly one forth of Slovenians have received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine. We believe that Slovenian blue chips should show resilience, even in a slow rollout of the vaccine.

Additionally, the index is on a way to deliver another attractive dividend yield which could reach c. 5.5% (compared to 4.1% in 2020). With the stabilization of macroeconomic situation, we deem that the DY might be even higher in the coming periods (closer to 2019 levels of 6.4%).   

P/E of Selected Indices

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Conclusion

So far in 2021, Slovenian equity has shown a stellar performance, however we believe that the market still has more than enough room for growth. This could be further backed by the fact that the market remains fundamentally very attractive, being traded at one of the lowest multiples in the region and at a significant discount to developed markets. Additionally, Slovenia might further benefit from a continuation of solid performance of value and cyclicals for the reasons described above. Moreover, the already shown resilience to the pandemic by Slovenian blue chips, a (somewhat slow) rollout of the vaccine coupled with positive expectations for 2021 are enough for us to remain positive on Slovenia.

Sava Re Renews Market Making Agreement with InterCapital
InterCapital remains dedicated to making investments into the region more attractive by supporting transparency and liquidity, and we thank our partners for supporting us in achieving this goal.

We are proud to announce that Sava Re renewed their Market Making agreements with InterCapital Securities.

Being a market maker means that InterCapital will continuously put both bid (buy) and ask (sell) orders on POSR shares at a pre-defined spread. The idea is to enable investors to buy or sell the shares (up to a certain size) at any time within a reasonable volatility range.

InterCapital is already an established market maker in Croatia, covering 8 blue-chip companies, all part of the CROBEX index and 2 ETFs. According to our experience, the service accounts for a significant portion of the shares’ total turnover.

Besides that, in 2019, InterCapital reignited market making in Slovenia after 10 years, and currently provides the mentioned services to 5 Slovenian blue chips: Krka, Triglav, Petrol, Telekom Slovenije and Sava Re.

We are proud of having earned the company’s trust and will do our best to continue providing the best service possible.

To read more about the importance of market making click here.

NLB Discussions with MIGA for Obtaining a Guarantee for Optimizing its Capital
The transaction which is scheduled to be concluded later this year could reduce the RWAs of NLB on consolidated level by up to EUR 252.13m (2% of consolidated RWAs).

NLB published an announcement on the LJSE stating that they are in discussions with Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) on entering into a contract of guarantee that will allow for a capital optimization relating to Komercijalna banka Beograd.

MIGA guarantee is expected to provide regulatory capital relief to NLB on a consolidated level by reducing the amount of RWAs. The tenor of the guarantee is expected to be up to 7 years.

The transaction which is scheduled to be concluded later this year could reduce the RWAs of NLB on consolidated level by up to EUR 252.13m. To put things into a perspective, this accounts for 2% of the consolidated RWAs as of 31 March 2021. The aforementioned would imply an increase of CAR by 0.3 p.p. to 16.4% (as of end Q1 2021).

The RWA capacity that is freed up is expected to be used by NLB to support the operations of KB in Serbia, and consequently support NLB’s overall business strategy in the host country.

As a reminder, we should expect the inclusion of negative goodwill of EUR 137.9m to the regulatory capital by Q3 2021 (subject to approval by ECB), which would further boost the CAR to 17.5% (with the inclusion of the above mentioned as well).

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