Two weeks ago, we shared our World Cup 2026 group stage predictions, and now it’s time to see what we got right and what we got wrong, who surprised and who disappointed, what to expect and what to look out for in the knockout stage, and to brace ourselves for this summer’s real heat, though the climate is a very close second.
First, we are going to look back at the group stage results that we predicted in our last blog. Starting with Group A, one of the hosts did their homework and claimed all nine points without conceding a single goal – perhaps even more dominant than we expected. However, there were upsets in this group, as South Africa drew against Czechia and beat South Korea to finish second and advance. Our prediction for this group didn’t hold up so well, since we had South Korea second and Czechia reaching the knockouts as one of the best third-placed teams, though we did stress how unpredictable it was, given how evenly matched the teams were.
On the other hand, Group B finished just as predicted. Switzerland recovered from their opening draw against Qatar, Canada finished second on a better goal difference than Bosnia and Herzegovina, and our neighbors clinched their spot by winning their final game against Qatar. As for Group C, we got the placings right, but Scotland’s poor goal difference wasn’t enough to see them through to the next round.
In Group D, one of the biggest positive surprises was the USA, at least going by the style of play they showed. They had already secured first place after the second matchday, Australia came in second, while Paraguay beat Turkey, just as Australia had. Therefore, our bet on Turkey going through as a third-placed team didn’t pan out, which probably had a lot to do with taking more than 60 shots across their first two games and scoring none.
Groups E and F finished just as we predicted, with outsiders Curacao and Tunisia enabling both groups to send three teams to the knockout stage, although Curacao did take points from Ecuador. Group G also went as we said, though Belgium had far more trouble with their opponents. Despite finishing first and unbeaten, they never looked dominant or did much to convince us they were favorites.
Despite a first-round shock against Cape Verde, Spain still topped the group as expected, but the astonishing result of debutants from an archipelago west of Africa is one of the best stories in this tournament so far. On the other hand, Uruguay is among the biggest disappointments, heading home winless and as the worst third-placed team of all.
Groups I and J, where the last World Cup’s finalists showcased their dominance, went as expected, while Group K also sent three teams through, with Colombia finishing top ahead of Portugal. Lastly, Group L delivered the expected outcome, plus one of the eight best third-placed teams.
InterCapital’s World Cup 2026 knockout stage predictions
Source: InterCapital estimate
Starting with Round of 32, we expect most of the ties to end with the favorites going through, but there are bound to be surprises. None of these are obvious outsiders, but we think Morocco, Senegal and Mexico could upset the Netherlands, Belgium and Ecuador respectively. Morocco also benefits from an “easy” bracket and would be expected to get past Canada (which already earned its place in R16 last night) before being stopped by France. Senegal’s last-16 opponent is expected to be the USA, and the States are our biggest potential surprise of all – we see them going all the way to the quarterfinals, where they should be stopped by Spain. Unfortunately, we aren’t backing Croatia or Bosnia and Herzegovina as favorites, but we know how unpredictable knockout stages can be, especially for Croatia. On the left side of the bracket, a “final before the final” is expected to be played between France and Spain, and we give France the slight edge here, thanks to their remarkable depth and talent. That said, it would be no surprise at all if Spain messes up those plans. On the right side of the bracket, we don’t anticipate as many surprises, though things could get tricky there too. Although we don’t project Norway to get past Brazil in the Round of 16, we wouldn’t rule out a run to the semi-finals if things go their way. For the final, we’re tipping a rematch of the last World Cup in Qatar – only this time with France getting their revenge. Of course, we wish our boys the best of luck against the favored Portugal and would be delighted if they prove us wrong completely on that side of the bracket.