IC Market Espresso 30 Nov 2022

 
Luka Koper Publishes 9M 2022 Results

During 9M 2022, Luka Koper reported a revenue growth of 39% YoY, an EBITDA increase of 96%, and a net income of EUR 59.4m, an increase of 164% YoY.

Luka Koper’s net revenue amounted to EUR 233.7m, which would mean that it grew by 39% YoY, and 1% compared to the 9M 2022 plan. The increase was driven by the growth in the maritime throughput, which amounted to 17.5m tonnes in 9M 2022, an increase of 11% YoY, and at the level of the 2022 plan. Container throughput amounted to 780.7k TEUs, an increase of 3% YoY, and at the level of the 2022 plan. Car throughput amounted to 567.1k units, an increase of 20% YoY, and 1% compared to the 2022 plan.

Looking at the revenue growth more closely, it came as a result of higher revenue from warehouse fees due to the extended retention time in warehouses due to the current situation in the global logistics market, which in Q3 2022, due to the gradual normalization of the situation, were already somewhat lower as compared to Q2 2022. Further normalization of the situation is expected by the end of the year, and as such revenue is also expected to normalize. The higher revenue can also be attributed to rising prices, increased volume of throughput in all commodity groups, and increased volume of additional services.

Breaking the growth down into cargo groups, growth can be seen across almost all of them. General cargoes increased by 31% YoY, and amounted to 1m tonnes, mainly as a result of higher throughput of steel products and caoutchouc. Lower export was recorded in the maritime throughput of timber. The trend of containerization of these goods has been increasing, which is reflected in the increase of additional services of container stuffing. The throughput of containers amounted to 780.7k TEUs, an increase of 3% YoY, and this was done despite the challenges in the logistical chain. In particular, in Q3 2022, irregular arrivals of ships on both direct connections with the Far East and other Mediterranean ports, which was already recorded earlier in the year, continued.

The throughput of cars was 20% higher YoY and amounted to 988.5k tonnes. These results were above-average, especially in the face of the issues that the automotive industry and global logistics are facing, due to interruptions of the supply chains, congestion of maritime and storage capacities, as well as the impact of unpredictable developments in Ukraine. The higher throughput was recorded both in export, mainly for the Middle and Far East, as well as in imports, where the share of electric vehicles, mostly Chinese, has been increasing significantly. Liquid cargoes increased by 43% YoY, and amounted to 3.41m tonnes, with growth across all cargo types, including the modest recovery of jet fuel throughput. Finally, dry and bulk cargoes increased by 5% YoY, mainly driven by the higher throughput of coal.

Maritime throughput in tonnes (9M 2021 vs. 9M 2022)

Source: Luka Koper, InterCapital Research

Meanwhile, OPEX amounted to EUR 170.2m, an increase of 16% or EUR 23.3m YoY. This was driven by growth across all cost categories, excl. other operating expenses. Within the material expenses, the cost of energy increased due to higher consumption of motor fuel and higher electricity prices, as well as higher costs of spare parts due to a higher volume of maintenance work. Costs of services, and within them, transshipment fees and concession fees also increased, due to higher maritime throughput and higher net revenue achieved. Labor costs were also higher due to the higher number of employees, higher payments for job performance, more overtime work, and the adjustment of salaries for inflation.

Structure of maritime throughput by cargo groups (9M 2021 vs. 9M 2022, %)

Source: Luka Koper, InterCapital Research

However, due to the faster revenue than OPEX growth, the EBITDA increased significantly YoY by 96%, and 5% compared to the 2022 plan, amounting to EUR 89.5m. This would imply an EBITDA margin of 38.3%, an increase of 11.2 p.p. YoY.  All taken together, this resulted in a net profit of EUR 59.4m, an increase of 164% YoY.

Luka Koper key financials (9M 2021 vs. 9M 2022, EUR)

Source: Luka Koper, InterCapital Research

Luka Koper also commented on their investments thus far this year, and they amounted to EUR 37.4m, a decrease of 10% YoY. Investments included the purchase of two SPPX cranes for the needs of the container terminal, continued extension of Pier I, and upgrading the anti-dust system at the dry bulk cargo terminal, among many others.

Luka Koper also set out the targets for their plan for 2025. According to the Company, they are aiming to achieve net revenue of EUR 279.4m, a total throughput of 27.3m, a container throughput of 1.227m TEUs, a car throughput of 0.886m units, an EBIT of EUR 47.8m, an EBITDA margin of 32.1%, and an ROE of 8.1%, among many others.

The Company also commented on the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on its operations. In Q3 2022, the economic prospects in the international environment worsened, with uncertainty and inflationary pressure increasing. The situation in the energy markets is still harsh. Luka Koper’s direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine is relatively small since the throughput through the Port of Koper to those destinations is negligible. Nevertheless, the MB monitors the situation in the markets and will respond in order to ensure smooth business operations.

How Correlated Were CROBEX10 and SBITOP to S&P500 in 2022?

Thus far in 2022, the correlation between the price change of the CROBEX10 index and S&P500 amounted to 0.14, while between SBITOP and S&P500, it amounted to 0.18.

The equity markets have been on quite a roller coaster ride in 2022, with issues ranging from inflation and interest rate hikes to fears of a coming recession on the back of high energy prices due to the war in Ukraine. In times like these, when turmoil surpassed borders and affects all countries (albeit to a varying degree), it is also expected that the negative sentiment will spill over to the equity markets.

In fact, if we look at CROBEX10, SBITOP, and S&P500 thus far in 2022, we can see that they declined by 10.5%, 16.5%, and 15.5%, respectively.

Performance of CROBEX10, SBITOP and S&P500 in 2022 (YTD, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

The beginning of the negative trend can be seen right on 24 February 2022, when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Due to the differences in their size, their composition, and the likelihood that foreign investors will invest in a select index, some differences in the performance are to be expected. This is especially true if we take into account that SBITOP, but especially CROBEX10, is way less liquid of an index than S&P500. As such, the low liquidity also plays a role in the change in prices, as days, when the markets have a lot of stronger reactions abroad, are cushioned by the lack of liquidity, especially in Croatia.

Having all of this in mind, how correlated were the CROBEX10 and SBITOP indices to the S&P500 in 2022? Thus far in the year, the correlation between CROBEX10 and S&P500 amounted to 0.14, while for SBITOP it amounted to 0.18. Compared to 2021, the correlation between CROBEX10 and S&P500 amounted to 0.10, while between SBITOP and S&P500, it amounted to 0.19.

As 1 can be taken as a perfect correlation, we can see that in neither of the years these indices’ price movements were correlated. Despite this, the correlation between CROBEX10 and S&P500 in 2022 did increase, which would indicate that things that are influencing both indices are more pronounced. This is to be expected, as the global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is a lot more influential this year than on an average year. For SBITOP, the correlation remains roughly unchanged, but this can be attributed to the fact that the Ljubljana Stock Exchange is on average, more liquid than Croatia. Because of this, it can react to news more quickly than the Zagreb Stock Exchange, and as such, remains unchanged. Even so, the correlation between these indices is quite low, and besides the liquidity and their size, the composition and the willingness of foreign investors to invest are also present here.

Upcoming Events – November 2022

Here you can find the dates for the upcoming events of the regional companies.

wdt_ID Date Ticker Announcement Country
40 29.11.2022 LKPG Luka Koper Q3 2022 Results Slovenia
41 29.11.2022 LKPG Luka Koper summary of the business plan for 2023, 2023 business performance estimate Slovenia
42 30.11.2022 UKIG Unior Q3 2022 Results Slovenia
43 30.11.2022 CICG Cinkarna Celje Q3 2022 Results Slovenia
44 30.11.2022 CICG Cinkarna Celje performance plan for 2023 Slovenia
45 30.11.2022 CICG Cinkarna Celje financial calendar for 2023 Slovenia

Due to the nature of these events, they are subject to change (might be postponed or canceled).

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