According to the first flash estimate of the Croatian CPI, in April 2024, it grew by 0.7% MoM, and 3.7% YoY. Furthermore, the Croatian HICP, which allows comparisons to other European countries, grew by 1% MoM, and 4.7% YoY, being 2^nd to only Belgium on the YoY basis.

The latest CPI flash estimate for Croatia has been released on Tuesday. In the release, we can see that the Croatian CPI grew by 0.7% MoM and 3.7% YoY. This would indicate that the Croatian inflation rate remains one of the highest in Europe, and also that it has yet to cool off.

If we were to look at the main drivers of growth, on the MoM basis, Non-food industrial goods without energy grew by 1.2%, while Services and Food, beverages and tobacco both grew at 0.7%, respectively. On the other hand, prices in Energy decreased by 0.7%. Meanwhile, on a YoY basis, prices in the Services segment grew by 6.3%, in Food, beverages and tobacco by 4.5%, in Non-food industrial goods without energy by 2%, while in Energy they increased by 1.1%.

Croatian CPI YoY growth rate (February 2013 – April 2024, %)

Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research

If we wanted to make comparisons to other European countries, then the HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) has to be used. In general, the Euro area inflation rate stood at 2.4% YoY in April 2024. In Croatia meanwhile, it stood at 4.7% YoY, and 1% MoM. Comparing it to other European countries, on the YoY basis, Croatia was 2^nd to only Belgium, which recorded a YoY inflation rate of 4.9%, and these were the only 2 countries that recorded a YoY inflation rate of >4%. The closest regional peer, Slovenia, recorded an inflation rate of 3% YoY.

HICP comparison between Euro area countries (April 2024, YoY, %)

Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research

Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the largest increase was experienced by Malta at 2.8%, which is quite an outlier and the only country to experience >2% MoM HICP. Following them are Estonia and Netherlands at 1.1%, respectively, and then Greece, Croatia and Portugal, each at 1%.

HICP comparison between Euro area countries (April 2024, MoM, %)

Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research

Overall, the Croatian inflation seems to be still far above the 2% target set by the ECB. Inflation did get tempered in the Euro area overall, at 2.4% as already mentioned. However, what’s more worrying for Croatia is the fact that as part of the Euro area, if the inflation continues to decline in the area, and Croatian inflation remains elevated, interest rate cuts could fuel its growth even further. At the same time, the inflation is mostly seen in Services, which is mostly related to tourism activities, and in food, beverages & tobacco, which is more related to personal consumption. Neither of these categories is influenced directly by higher/lower interest rates. As such, it will be interesting to see how the situation will develop moving forward.

At the share price before the announcement, this would imply a DY of 1%. The ex-date is set for 30 May 2024, while the payment date is set for 21 June 2024.

Last week, Electrica held its GSM, after which the resolutions were published, including the one regarding the dividend payment. According to the resolutions, Electrica approved the payment of RON 40m in the form of dividends, which on a per-share basis would imply a gross dividend of RON 0.1178. At the share price before the announcement, this would imply a DY of 1%.

The ex-date is set for 30 May 2024, while the payment date is set for 21 June 2024. Below we provide you with the historical dividends per share and dividend yields of the Company.

Electrica dividend per share (RON) and dividend yield (%) (2015 – 2024)

Source: Electrica, InterCapital Research

At the share price before the announcement, this would imply a DY of 3.7%. The ex-date is set for 16 May 2024, while the payment date is set for 6 June 2024.

Last week, Sphera Franchise Group held its GSM, and afterward, the resolutions were published. According to the resolutions, the proposal for the distribution of dividends was approved. Accordingly, a gross dividend of RON 1.05 per share will be distributed to the shareholders. At the share price before the announcement, this would imply a DY of 3.7%.

The ex-date is set for 16 May 2024, while the payment date is set for 6 June 2024. Below we provide you with the historical dividend per share and dividend yield of the Company.

Sphera Franchise Group dividend per share (RON) and dividend yield (%) (2019 – 2024)

Source: Sphera Franchise Group, InterCapital Research

The dividend yield is 0.3%, while the ex-date is 4 June 2024.

Romgaz published the resolutions from the GSM in which the shareholders approved a dividend payment of RON 0.1425 per share, implying a dividend yield of 0.3%. The ex-date is 4 June 2024. Note that the payment date is 26 July 2024.

In the graphs below, we are bringing you a historical overview of the company’s historic dividend per share and dividend yield.

Source: InterCapital Research, BVB