Today, we are bringing you our estimates for the dividends of the Croatian and Slovenian blue chips, for 2024. This is based on our own internal estimates, as well as the information shared by the companies thus far.
Croatia
CROBEX10 constituents estimated dividend payments (2024, EUR)
Source: InterCapital Research estimates
Starting with companies with the largest weight in the CROBEX10 index, we expect Podravka to increase its dividend slightly this year, to EUR 2.70 per share (2023 payment: EUR 2.65 DPS). We expect the Company’s profitability to improve this year, but at the same time, we also expect it to continue its investment cycle and share buyback program, meaning that we do not see a large increase in dividend payments happening.
Next up, we have HT, which has on Friday published solid results for 2023, with net income growth of almost 52% YoY. As the Company has been a consistent dividend payer for years, and in 2023 paid out EUR 1.10 DPS (DY of 4.3%), we expect that it will increase its dividend payment this year based on those good results. As such, we expect a dividend of EUR 1.40 DPS. However, we would like to note that the payment could end up higher if the historical trend of paying out most of its mother company’s (HT d.d.) net profit, at app. EUR 1.60 DPS.
Following HT, there is Končar, which has recorded solid growth in profitability in 2023 (actuals), and we expect this to continue in the last quarter. This growth was highly reflected in the share price, which recorded one of the largest increases on the exchange during the year. Given the fact that the Company signaled it expects optimistic growth and margin development in the upcoming period, we expect the dividend to increase to EUR 3.2 DPS.
Meanwhile, Adris recorded strong results across all of its segments in the 2023 actuals, and we do not expect a significant deviation from the FY results. As such, we expect improvements in profitability, leading to an increase in the dividend payment, to app. EUR 2.6 DPS for both regular and preferred shares.
For Atlantic Grupa, we expect an overall improvement in profitability in 2023, although we still expect it to match the one recorded in 2021. While the is still a lot of uncertainty regarding prices, especially energy, we do expect a 15% increase in the dividend payment, at EUR 1.15 DPS.
Valamar Riviera, on the other hand, is expected to continue profitability growth in the coming years, with a larger focus on the luxury segment, as well as upgrades to the hotel capacity and other facilities. Given that the higher-end segment that Valamar focuses on is less influenced by the macroeconomic changes as the tourists in this segment usually have higher budgets, we find this scenario to be most likely. This could allow Valamar to pay out higher dividends, and in 2024 we estimate it at EUR 0.24 DPS.
Ericsson NT also published its results last week, and while there was an improvement in profitability YoY, this was more due to the cost pressures in 2022 impacting profitability. While the Company did sign several new contracts in 2023, we do not see much room for a higher dividend, and as such we leave it at EUR 6 DPS like last year. However, due to the price depreciation, this would still end up at a higher DY YoY.
Moving on, HPB as have all banks, recorded significant profitability improvement in 2023 in the backdrop of higher interest rates. As a result, we do expect a dividend payment from the 2023 net profit to be made. However, since the last dividend payment will only be made in June 2024, we do not expect a 2nd dividend payment to be made during the year. As such, we estimate the 2024 dividend at 0 DPS.
For Atlantska Plovidba, we also do not expect a dividend payment this year. The reason why is the fact that the Company operates in the cyclical shipping industry, which has come under significant pressure in the latter part of 2022 and for most of 2023. Combined with the inflationary pressures affecting costs, profitability suffered, and as such, we do not expect a dividend payment to be made, and if one is, for it to not be significant.
Finally, for Span, taking into account the Company’s dividend policy and expected FY 2023 results, we estimate a dividend amount close to EUR 0.7 per share.
Dividend yield estimates of Croatian blue chips (2024, %)*
*DY calculated on the closing price on 23 February 2024
Slovenia
SBITOP constituents estimated dividend payments (2024, EUR)
Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data
In Slovenia, for Krka, we expect a dividend of EUR 6.8 per share in 2024, which is an increase of 3% compared to last year. The analyst consensus stands even higher at EUR 7 per share, so a solid dividend increase for Krka is expected. We also find the Company is able to generate enough cash for both investments and dividends in the future, so our business plan assumes an annual dividend increase in the next 5 years. Furthermore, Krka has always been an above-average dividend payer, and we expect the dividend yield to range around 6% in 2024.
For NLB, after publishing its strong results on Tuesday last week, the Bank announced a dividend of EUR 220m in 2024, an increase from the expected EUR 130m. On a per-share basis, this would imply a dividend of EUR 11.00 per share (previously expected: EUR 6.5 DPS).
For Petrol, given the uncertainty in the energy sector, predicting the dividend payment is especially tricky. While the situation did improve in 2023, the Management could move on the side of caution, given that the whole geopolitical situation did not improve that much. While we expect to see an improvement in profitability, it would be a return to the level seen in 2021. As such, we expect a similar dividend of EUR 1.50 DPS in 2024.
Meanwhile, Triglav is expected to pay out EUR 2.5 DPS, which would be a payout ratio of somewhere above 60%, in line with the historical payout ratios. We expect this despite the hit the Company took last year from natural disasters and supplementary health care changes in Slovenia.
At the same time, for Sava Re, we expect the DPS of EUR 1.7 to be paid out in 2023, in line with a 35-45% dividend payout ratio, outlined in the Company’s business plan.
Luka Koper also published its 2023 results last week, and the Company recorded a net income of EUR 56.4m. According to the dividend payment policy, 50% of the distributable net profit will be allocated to dividends. We do not expect a deviation from this policy, and as such we estimate a dividend payment of EUR 28.2m, or EUR 2.02 DPS.
Telekom Slovenije, meanwhile, already approved its dividend payment (link), at EUR 6.2 DPS.
Cinkarna Celje also approved the dividend payment for 2024 recently (link), at EUR 3.20 DPS.
Finally, for Equinox, the Company stated that it plans on paying between 50-70% of its funds from operations, FFO (net income + depreciation) in the form of dividends. We estimate this at 65%, and given its FFO amounted to EUR 6.4m, on a per share basis this would amount to EUR 2.34 DPS.
Dividend yield estimates of Slovenian blue chips (2024, %)*
Source: InterCapital Research estimates, companies’ data
*DY calculated on the closing price on 23 February 2024, except for Cinkarna Celje and Telekom Slovenije, which is based on the share price before the initial proposal
During 2023, Luka Koper’s revenue remained unchanged YoY, the Company’s EBITDA decreased by 18%, while the net profit amounted to EUR 56.4m, a 24% decrease YoY.
By the end of 2023, Luka Koper’s net revenue amounted to EUR 312.8m, remaining unchanged YoY, and increasing by 8% compared to the plan for 2023. Breaking this down further, revenue from higher maritime throughput grew by EUR 20m, from the increased maritime throughput volume of containers and cars, increased volume of stuffing and unstuffing of containers, as well as increased volume of other additional services on goods and higher cost of services. On the other hand, due to the normalization of the situation in the global logistics market and the shortening of the storage time of containers, revenues from storage fees decreased by EUR 21m.
The total maritime throughout amounted to 22.3m tonnes, representing a decrease of 4% YoY. Breaking this down into segments, general cargo throughput amounted to 1.1m, decreasing by 15% YoY, as a lower throughput of steel products and rubber was achieved. Containers meanwhile, recorded 1% higher throughput in terms of tonnes, and 5% higher throughput in terms of TEUs. Luka Koper noted that this allowed it to consolidate its position and confirm its primacy in the Northern Adriatic ports segment. Cars also recorded an increase, of 13% to 1.57m tonnes, and by 14% to 916.7k units, which is a segment that has been recording the fastest growth during the year. As the Company also noted, this also allowed it to consolidate its position and confirm its primacy in the Mediterranean in this category. Liquid cargoes meanwhile, recorded a 3% decrease to 4.5m tonnes, while dry and dry bulk cargoes decreased by 15% YoY to 5.29m tonnes. While no details are given as to why liquid cargoes decreased, for dry and dry bulk cargoes the decrease came due to lower throughput of soya, alumina, phosphates, coal, and iron ore.
Maritime throughput in tonnes per cargo group (2023 vs. 2022)
Source: Luka Koper, InterCapital Research
Moving on to operating expenses, in 2023 they amounted to EUR 258m, a 10% increase YoY. All types of expenses grew, except the cost of material, which decreased by 3% YoY due to lower cost of spare parts and lower energy cost, as reduced consumption was recorded, while at the same time, a lower average price of motor fuel was recorded. On the other hand, the cost of services grew by 15% YoY, as a result of the higher volume of business, mainly due to the increased maritime transshipment of cars and increased volume of maintenance works, as well as higher prices of maintenance costs. Labour costs grew by 9% YoY, due to the higher number of employees, higher payments for business performance as well as the adjustment of salaries to inflation. Finally, depreciation costs are higher due to new asset purchases, while the other expenses are higher due to the formation of long-term provisions related to lawsuits.
This resulted in an EBITDA of EUR 93.7m, an 18% decrease YoY. As such, the EBITDA margin amounted to 30%, a decrease of 6.59 p.p. YoY. Finally, the net income amounted to EUR 56.4m, a 24% decrease YoY, while besides the operating result, was also supported by higher financial income which the Group achieved due to higher interest on short-term deposits and treasury bonds. In terms of the net income margin, it amounted to 18% in 2023, a decrease of 5.61 p.p. YoY.
Luka Koper key financials (2023 vs. 2022, EURm)
Source: Luka Koper, InterCapital Research
In terms of investments, they amounted to EUR 41.5m in 2023, an 18% decrease YoY, and a 29% decrease compared to the 2023 plan. Luka Koper noted that several relevant investments were made during the year, including the arrangement of the storage areas at landfill 5A, construction of new reefer plugs for reefer containers, and construction of the external Truck terminal at the Sermin entrance, among others.
If you would like to read the 2023 business performance information in more detail, click here.