IC Market Espresso 26 Apr 2023

BVB Trading Activity – March 2023

At the end of March 2023, BET recorded a decrease of 1.62% MoM, amounting to 12,111.50 points. Meanwhile, in Q1 2023, it grew by 3.84%.

The latest trading activity report has been published by the Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the month of March 2023. Starting off with the highlights first, BVB notes that seven listings took place in Q1 2023 on the exchange, with a total value of EUR 428m. Of this, EUR 427m pertains to 6 bond issuances, while EUR 1m is one equity issue. They also note that in the last 5 years, 156 rounds of financing (involving either equities or bonds) with a cumulative value of EUR 6.5bn were carried out on the Exchange.

BVB also notes that the capital market in Romania recorded an increase of 3.8% in Q1, but this is true if we look at the BET-TR index, which also includes dividends.

In terms of the trading value, the total equity turnover amounted to RON 1.2bn in March 2023, representing an increase of 125% MoM, but a decrease of 27% YoY. Here we can see that even though the situation is somewhat improving with the trading volume, it is still below March 2022’s level. The report notes that the growth in the capital markets in Q1 (in terms of BET-TR) also came with a reduction in overall liquidity, something which we can see here. It should also be noted that March 2022’s trading level is somewhat of an outlier, as the invasion of Ukraine by Russia started in February, which led to a lot of uncertainty and volatility in capital markets across the world, Romania included.

In March, 23 trading days were recorded, which would mean that the average daily turnover amounted to RON 52.5m, which is an increase of 96% compared to February 2023’s level of RON 26.9m, but the same 27% decrease from March 2022’s level of RON 72.3m. Meanwhile, BET recorded a decrease of 1.62% MoM in March 2023, while in the first quarter, it increased by 3.84%.

Performance of BET constituents in March 2023 (MoM, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Taking a look at the BET constituents’ performance in March 2023, the largest monthly increase was recorded by BVB, which grew by 13.5%, followed by SFG with 6.5% growth, Nuclearelectrica with a 4.6% increase, DIGI with 4.3%, and Purcari, with 3.4%. On the other hand, the largest relative decrease was recorded by BRD, which decreased by 10.4%, Alro, which declined by 8.4%, ONE, which decreased by 7.6%, and Transelectrica, which decreased by 5.9%. In fact, out of the 20 members of the index, only 8 recorded an increase, while 12 decreased.

Performance of BET constituents in Q1 2023 (QoQ, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Meanwhile, on a quarterly basis, the situation seems a lot better for the majority of the companies. This is due to the fact that out of the 20 index members, only 3 recorded a decline. In terms of growth, BVB again leads the way, this time with an increase of 33.7%, followed by Aquila at 24.6%, SFG at 16.4%, Transgaz at 13.3%, and Conpet, at 11.2%. The majority of the remaining companies with positive growth (10 to be exact) recorded an increase of over 5%. On the flip side, the largest decrease was once again recorded by BRD, which declined by 8.6%, followed by ONE with a 3.3% decrease, and Banca Transilvania, with a decrease of 2.1%.

Valamar Riviera’s Subsidiary Imperial Riviera Approves EUR 2.07 DPS

At the share price before the initial proposal, this would amount to a DY of 1.9%. The ex-date is set for 28 April 2023.

At yesterday’s GSM meeting of Imperial Riviera, the approval of the 2023 dividend payment was made. According to the press release, EUR 2.07 DPS will be paid out, implying a DY of 1.9%. The ex-date for the dividend payment is set for 28 April 2023, while the payment date is set for 10 May 2023.

Below we provide you with the historical dividend per share and dividend yields of the Company.

Imperial Riviera dividend per share (EUR) and dividend yield (%) (2020 – 2023)

Source: Imperial Riviera, InterCapital Research

NAV of Croatian Mutual Funds Declines by 15.7% YoY in March 2023

At the end of March 2023, the total NAV of all Croatian mutual funds equaled EUR 2.01bn, which would imply a decrease of 3.7% MoM and 15.7% YoY.

HANFA has published the latest monthly report on the changes recorded by the Croatian capital markets, including the data on Croatian mutual funds. According to the report, by the end of March 2023, the NAV of Croatian mutual funds amounted to EUR 2.01bn, representing a decrease of 3.7% MoM, and 15.7% YoY.

In terms of the asset holdings, on the MoM basis, the largest increase was recorded by deposits and cash, which increased by EUR 24.7m, or 8.2%. Following them, we have investment funds, which grew by EUR 14.3m, or 7.5%, and receivables, which increased by EUR 2.6m, or 54.9%. On the other hand, the largest decrease was recorded in bond holdings, which declined by EUR 62.3m, or 5%. Money market as well as the share holdings also recorded a decline, decreasing by EUR 20.6m (or 35%) and EUR 8.3m (or 2.7%), respectively.

Meanwhile, on a yearly basis, the majority of the asset holdings recorded a decrease, with the only increases recorded by investment funds and receivables, which grew by EUR 22.8m (or 12.5%) and EUR 1.3m (or 22.7%), respectively. On the flip side, the largest absolute decline was recorded by deposits and cash holdings, which decreased by EUR 233.9m, or 41.8%, followed by bonds, which declined by EUR 154.8m, or 11.5%, and shares, with a decline of EUR 12m, or 3.8%.

Total assets of Croatian mutual funds (2015 – March 2023, EURm)

Source: HANFA, InterCapital Research

It’s also worth noting the net contributions into these funds because, unlike pension funds which will have a consistent positive cash flow into their system due to the pension system in Croatia, the mutual funds cater to investors which have the option of also redeeming their stakes. This is pretty evident in the March 2023 data, as the overall net contributions were negative at EUR 82.1m, meaning more people redeemed their shares than contributed to the funds. Breaking this down further, the largest absolute decline was recorded by bond funds, where redemptions reduced the overall NAV by EUR 88.5m, while the “other” fund category recorded the largest increase, at EUR 12.7m.

Taking a look at securities and deposits, they amounted to a total of EUR 252.8m in March 2023, representing a decrease of EUR 8.9m (or 3.4%) MoM, and EUR 20.2m (or EUR 7.4%) YoY. Of this, the domestic securities and deposits amounted to EUR 120.6m, or 47.7% of the total, and have recorded the brunt of the decreases. In fact, they declined by EUR 8.5m (or 6.62%) MoM, and EUR 45.5m (or 27.4%) YoY. Foreign securities and deposits, on the other hand, accounted for the remaining 52.30%, or EUR 132.2m, declining by only EUR 309k (or 0.23%) MoM, but recording an increase of EUR 25.3m, or 23.6% YoY.

Lastly, looking at the current asset structure of the mutual funds, bond holdings still have the highest share at 57.6% of all asset holdings, but they have lost 1.6 p.p. on the monthly basis, but have increased by 2.8 p.p. on a YoY basis. The 2nd largest category is deposits and cash, which accounted for 15.7% of the total, increasing by 1.5 p.p. MoM, but decreasing by 7 p.p. YoY. Following them we have shares, which accounted for 14.6% of the total, remaining unchanged MoM, but increasing by 1.8 p.p. YoY, as well as investment funds, which accounted for 9.9% of the total, increasing by 0.9 p.p. MoM, and 2.5 p.p. YoY.

Current AUM of Croatian mutual funds (March 2023, % of the total)

Source: HANFA, InterCapital Research

Upcoming Events – April 2023

Here you can find the dates for the upcoming events of the regional companies.

wdt_ID Date Ticker Announcement Country
49 28.4.2023 TTS Transport Trade Services General Assembly Meeting Romania
50 28.4.2023 TTS Transport Trade Services 2022 Annual Report Romania
51 28.4.2023 EL Electrica 2022 Annual Report Romania
52 28.4.2023 M MedLife 2022 Annual Report Romania
53 28.4.2023 TEL Transelectrica 2022 Annual Report Romania
54 28.4.2023 AQ Aquila 2022 Annual Report Romania
55 28.4.2023 AQ Aquila General Assembly Meeting Romania
56 28.4.2023 WINE Purcari 2022 Annual Report Romania
57 28.4.2023 TRP Teraplast General Assembly Meeting Romania
58 28.4.2023 TRP Teraplast 2022 Annual Report Romania
59 28.4.2023 SNP OMV Petrom Q1 2023 Results, Conference Call Romania
60 28.4.2023 COTE Conpet 2022 Annual Report Romania
61 28.4.2023 RIVP Valamar Riviera Q1 2023 Results Croatia
62 28.4.2023 PODR Podravka Q1 2023 Results Croatia
63 28.4.2023 HT Hrvatski Telekom Q1 2023 results, Conference Call for analysts and investors Croatia
64 28.4.2023 ATPL Atlantska Plovidba Audited 2022 Annual Report, Q1 2023 Results Croatia
65 28.4.2023 TLSG Telekom Slovenije 2022 Annual Report Slovenia

Due to the nature of these events, they are subject to change (might be postponed or canceled).