IC Market Espresso 25 Sep 2019

Overview of YTD Volatility of CROBEX Constituents

For today, we decided to bring you a brief overview of the standard deviations of weekly returns of the CROBEX components, in order to see their volatility since the beginning of the year.

Note that we also added Kraš to the list due to the share’s increase both in turnover and price in the past days.

We used candle stick charts to show the range of the returns. The thin vertical lines represent the maximum and the minimum weekly return, while the inner gold column represents the range of one standard deviation around the average return. Higher volatility means that the price of the security has changed significantly in both ways in the course of the year.

YTD Volatility of CROBEX Constituents *

*Includes Kraš as well

When looking at the selected companies, one can notice that the highest volatility was recorded by two company’s who are both subject to takeover speculations – Optima Telekom and Kraš.

Optima Telekom was the leader in volatility up to this point in the year with a standard deviation of 14% followed closely by Kraš (11.6%).

Optima also recorded the highest single weekly return, amounting to 54%, followed by Kraš with a return of 50%. On the filp side, the lowest weekly return was also observed by Optima of -19%, followed by Dalekovod (-13%).

As a reminder, Optima’s share price surged in June, after the Swedish Tele2 AB announced the sale of their Croatian subsidiary Tele2 Hrvatska to United Group. This is particularly interesting as Optima Telekom, currently consolidated and managed by HT, should be disposed by 10 July 2021. It was speculated by the media that United Group might be interested in acquiring Optima Telekom, as the company’s business is majority related to fixed broadband. You can read more about it here.

Although, Podravka ranked in the middle with a standard deviation of 2.5%, it observed a relatively high single weekly return of 12%. The mentioned increase occurred in the past week, while the share closed yesterday at HRK 458 per share.

On the flip side, of the middle-ranked ones, ZABA also recorded a standard deviation of 2.5%, while it observed a relatively low single week return of -10%. However, note that this decrease occurred in April, when the ex-dividend date on a lucrative dividend occurred.

Moody’s Reconfirms Transelectrica’s Rating as Ba1
The International Rating Agency Moody’s Investors Service reconfirmed the rating granted last year to the company, namely Ba1, positive outlook. 

Traselectrica published a document on the Bucharest Stock Exchange in which they announced that the International Rating Agency Moody’s Investors Service reconfirmed the rating granted last year to the company, namely Ba1 with a positive outlook. 

Maintaining the credit rating at Ba1 is justified by:

  • Low business risk profile given the strategic significance and natural monopoly of Transelectrica, as owner and fully regulated operator of the electricity transmission network;
  • Sound financial profile with low indebtedness;
  • Permanent improvement of the regulatory framework;
  • Governmental support in case of financial difficulties.