IC Market Espresso 21 Sep 2022

 
EU Passenger Car Registration in the First Eight Months down by 11.9% YoY

In July, passenger car registration in the EU decreased even further by 10.4% YoY, while in August the car market finally increased by 4.4%, totalling 650,305 units as expected. Meanwhile, in January – August 2022 EU new cars registration decreased 11.9% YoY. In Croatia in the mentioned period passenger car registration reported a slightly lower decrease of 9.3% YoY, while only in June an increase of 13.7% YoY was noted.

In July 2022, passenger car registration in the EU even further decreased by 10.4% YoY, while in August the car market finally increased by 4.4%, totalling 650,305 units. The biggest decrease reported in July in the EU by far was in Germany, where the reported decrease amounted to 30.5k units, representing a 12.9% YoY decrease despite an already low base for comparison due to semiconductor shortage. Further, France reported a decrease of 8.2k units, representing a 7.1% YoY decrease. Also, no major regions reported an increase in new passenger car registrations.

In August, the European new car market finally reversed its trend and increased by 4.4% YoY, bringing an end to thirteen months of consecutive decline. However, we note the result still remains far below pre-pandemic levels. In August, four key markets have positively contributed to the region’s growth with solid gains. Italy noted a 9.9% YoY growth, Spain 9.1%, France 3.8% and Germany with 3% increase. In the region, Croatia noted a 13.7% increase, while Slovenia further decreased by 5.4% YoY.

When observing January – August 2022, the situation is more or less stagnant. EU registration of new cars decreased by 11.9% YoY, reaching 6m units registered in total. Demand for new cars is presumably there but not enough cars are produced and put on the market. When observing the whole period, Italy, as the major market, reported the highest decrease of 18.4% YoY with total car registration amounting to 865k units (down from 1.1m). This decrease was further amplified by a decrease in another two major markets, Germany and France. Germany reported a decrease of 9.8% YoY and France reported a decrease of 13.8%, which is a decrease of 177.5k and 155.6k units of cars registered, respectively. Spain, which is also considered a major market, also reported a decrease of 9.4% YoY in the mentioned period.

Looking at the region, when observing the whole period since the beginning of the year, Croatia reported a decrease of 9.3% YoY, amounting to 31.2k units registered. Looking at data only for August, Croatia reported an increase of 13.7% YoY, amounting to 3.2k units registered. Slovenia reported a similar situation – when observing the whole period, Slovenia reported a decrease of 15.4% YoY, amounting to 33k units of the car registered.

Trading Activity on the BVB – August 2022

At the end of August 2022, BET decreased by 3.2% MoM, while on a YTD basis, it decreased by 7.7%, ending August at 12,058.08 points.

The Bucharest Stock Exchange has published its monthly trading data for August 2022. In it, Stock Exchange highlighted that in the first 8 months of 2022, over 1 million transactions were made (an increase of 42% compared to the same period last year). At the same time, the total equity turnover amounted to EUR 3.1bn in the first eight months (+34% YoY), which translates into a daily trading turnover of EUR 189.4m.

The higher levels of trading and volatility are something that can currently be recorded on equity markets across the world. The current situation in Ukraine is by far affecting the commodity market (and by extension energy prices) the most, causing inflation. Considering that several of the largest companies listed on the BVB are energy production companies, this increased trading volume is not surprising.

However, the end of August also recorded some positive news from the BVB, as the BET-TR index hit a new record high with the trading session ending August 18, growing by 1.4% compared to the end of last year, which would mean that it recovered all the value lost after the start of the war in Ukraine. As expected, the BET-NG index (which tracks energy and related activities), increased the most out of all indices and increased by 1.8% in the first eight months of trading.

Moving on to the companies which constitute the largest Romanian Index, BVB, only 5 out of 20 companies increased during the month, but at the same time, some of the companies remained quite stable at +/- 1%. Looking at the companies themselves, Nuclearelectrica recorded the largest relative increase, growing by 50% YoY, followed by Romgaz, which increased by 41% YoY. On the other hand, Alro decreased by 48.9%, Purcari by 39.1%, Teraplast by 35.3%, while Sphera Franchise Group decreased by 28.9%. The decreases in financial companies (Banca Transilvania, BRD) can be attributed to the current macroeconomic situation in Romania, and especially the inflation rate, which hit 15.3% in August, still an increase YoY. To combat this, the Central Bank has been increasing the interest rates, which again, affects the profitability of the financial institutions.

Performance of BET constituents in August 2022 (%)

In total, the BET index ended the month at 12,058.08 points, which is a decrease of 3.2% MoM, and 7.7% YTD.

NLB Announces Issuance of Subordinated Notes

Yesterday, NLB concluded note purchase agreements in the aggregate nominal amount of EUR 82m. The date of issuance is expected for 23 September 2022, with no scheduled maturity date.

NLB announced the intended issuance of subordinated notes, which will qualify as Additional Tier 1 Instruments. Yesterday, on 20 September 2022, the Company concluded note purchase agreements in the aggregate nominal amount of EUR 82m, with the expected date of issuance set for 23 September 2022.

The notes do not have a maturity date. NLB will have the option for the redemption of notes between 23 September 2027 and 23 March 2028 and on each distribution payment date thereafter. Until 23 March 2028 the interest on the principal of the notes will accrue at the interest rate of 9.721% per annum, and for each subsequent 5-year period, accrue at the applicable interest rate, which shall be reset prior to the commencement of each such period. The issue price will be equal to 100% of the nominal amount of the notes. The ISIN code of the notes will be SI0022104275.