IC Market Espresso 20 Jul 2023

NAV of Croatian Pension Funds Grows by 10% YoY in June 2023

At the end of June 2023, the NAV of the Croatian Mutual Funds equaled EUR 18.9bn, which is an increase of 10% YoY, and 1.8% MoM.

Yesterday, the Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency, HANFA, published its latest monthly report detailing the changes and developments recorded by the Croatian financial markets, including the data for the pension funds, for June 2023. In the report, we can see that the NAV of the Croatian pension funds amounted to EUR 18.9bn, representing an increase of 1.8% (or EUR 332.9m) MoM, and 10% (or EUR 1.72bn) YoY. At the same time, the net contributions into the pension funds amounted to EUR 103.5m for June 2023, while since the beginning of the year, it amounted to EUR 595.8m.

Croatian mandatory pension funds AUM structure change (January 2018 – June 2023, EURm)

Source: HANFA, InterCapital Research

Taking a look at the changes recorded by asset classes, we can see that on a monthly basis, the largest absolute growth was recorded by bonds, which grew by EUR 173.4m, or 1.5%, followed by other assets, at EUR 159.5m, or 332%, and shares, at EUR 139.9m, or 3.5%. On the other hand, deposits and cash decreased by EUR 165.2m or 27.8%. Given the fact that the pension funds have high cash inflows due to the structure of the pension system, the changes in value can come from one of two things: the increase/decrease in the inherent value of the underlying assets, or the decision of pension fund managers to increase/decrease their position in a certain asset holding. 2023 has thus far, despite the still challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical situation, marked a period of positive returns, both for equities and bonds. As such, it shouldn’t be surprising that more investments were made into riskier assets, such as bonds and especially shares, and less into the less risky assets such as deposits and cash.

Moving on to the yearly basis, the largest absolute growth was once again recorded by bonds, which increased by EUR 664.7m, or 6%, followed by shares at EUR 644.3m, or 18.5%, as well as investment funds, at EUR 328.7m, or 15.6%, and the money market holdings, with EUR 275.6m, or an increase of over 6.2x YoY.

In terms of the current asset structure of the pension funds, bonds accounted for 62.3% of the total, a decrease of 0.18 p.p. MoM, and 2.38 p.p. YoY. Following them we have shares at 21.8%, an increase of 0.36 p.p. MoM, and 1.56 p.p. YoY, as well as investment funds, at 11.4%, an increase of 0.27 p.p. MoM, and 0.77 p.p. YoY.

Current AUM of Croatian mandatory pension funds (June 2023, % of the total)

Source: HANFA, InterCapital Research

European Car Market Continues Solid Recovery in June 2023

In June, passenger car registration in the EU increased by 17.9% YoY, totaling 1,045,072 units. Meanwhile, looking at the first half of 2023, EU registration of new cars increased by 17.9% YoY overall. In Croatia in the mentioned period, passenger car registration reported a much more pronounced increase of 46.2% YoY.

New passenger car registration by month (May 2018 – June 2023)

Source: ACEA, InterCapital Research

In June 2023, passenger car registration in the EU increased by 17.9% YoY, totaling 1,045,072 units. The largest increase reported in the EU in June was again reported in Germany, where the absolute increase amounted to 39.8k units, representing a 19.2% YoY increase. Germany is followed by Italy where the increase amounted to 28k units (23.1% YoY), and up next is France where the increase was 18.7k (14.8% YoY). Finally, the last major region within the EU, Spain, also reported growth of 11.8k units (13.3% YoY)

When observing the first half of 2023, the situation is pretty similar – EU registration of new cars increased by 17.9% YoY.  However, the previous year was influenced by the semiconductor shortage, which started all the way back in 2021. Consequently, most EU markets showed strong growth compared to previous years. When observing the whole period, each of the major markets within the EU noted a positive development. Germany reported solid growth (12.8% YoY), while the remaining major markets, Spain, Italy, and France all noted even more pronounced growth of 24%, 22.8%, and 15.3% respectively. Smaller regions mostly noted double-digit growth. In June, the only region that reported a YoY decrease in units was Hungary (-1.4% YoY).

Looking at the region, when observing H1 2023, Croatia reported an astounding increase of 46.2% YoY, amounting to a growth of 10.6k units. Slovenia reported slightly underwhelming numbers, recording a 5.7% YoY growth, amounting to 1.5k units.

Car market share by fuel type in June 2023

Source: ACEA, InterCapital Research

During June, we could see hybrid and electric vehicles gaining further market share. The battery electric car market has overtaken diesel, climbing to 15.1% market share, representing growth of 4.4 p.p. Furthermore, hybrids now account for 24.3% of the market, being the second most popular choice. However, for now, petrol cars still retain the largest share at 36.3%, though we note it’s down 0.2 p.p. from data collected in May 2023.

Upcoming Events – July 2023

Here you can find the dates for the upcoming events of the regional companies.

wdt_ID Date Ticker Announcement Country
8 18.7.2023 KRKG Krka ex-date Slovenia
9 20.7.2023 KRKG Krka Q2 2023 Results Slovenia
10 20.7.2023 ADPL AD Plastik General Shareholders Meeting Croatia
11 21.7.2023 PODR Podravka Q2 2023 Results Croatia
12 25.7.2023 ERNT Ericsson NT Q2 2023 Results Croatia
13 25.7.2023 ATGR Atlantic Grupa Q2 2023 Results Croatia
14 25.7.2023 TRP Teraplast Q2 2023 Results Romania
15 25.7.2023 ATPL Atlantska Plovidba Supervisory Board Meeting Croatia
16 26.7.2023 TRP Teraplast Q2 2023 Results Conference Call Romania
17 26.7.2023 ATPL Atlantska Plovidba Management Board Meeting Croatia
18 26.7.2023 ARNT Arena Hospitality Group Supervisory Board Meeting Croatia
19 27.7.2023 KOEI Končar Q2 2023 Results Croatia
20 27.7.2023 HT Hrvatski Telekom Q2 2023 Results, Conference Call for investors and analysts Croatia
21 27.7.2023 ARNT Arena Hospitality Group Q2 2023 Results Croatia
22 27.7.2023 ADPL AD Plastik Q2 2023 Results Croatia
23 28.7.2023 WINE Purcari Wineries ex-date Romania
24 28.7.2023 EQNX Equinox Q2 2023 Results Slovenia
25 28.7.2023 SNP OMV Petrom Q2 2023 Results, Conference Call Romania
26 28.7.2023 ATPL Atlantska Plovidba Q2 2023 Results Croatia
27 31.7.2023 RIVP Valamar Riviera Q2 2023 Results Croatia

Due to the nature of these events, they are subject to change (might be postponed or canceled).