In July 2023, total equity turnover increased 11.5% MoM, while CROBEX was up by 2.6% during the month, ending at 2,407.93 points.

In July, we have seen a positive movement of CROBEX, noting an increase of 2.6% MoM. The total equity turnover on the exchange is further elevated compared to the previous month. In July 2023, total equity turnover amounted to a total of EUR 26m, which represents an increase of 38.7% YoY and a further 11.5% MoM increase. Finally, the block turnover amounted to EUR 0.7m. Excluding the block trades, the average daily turnover amounted to EUR 1.2m.

Monthly equity turnover on ZSE (January 2022 – July 2023)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

Looking at the top 10 most traded stocks, in total they recorded a turnover of EUR 16.6m, representing 63.7% of the equity turnover during the month. In terms of individual stocks, Span recorded the highest turnover, at EUR 3.7m, representing 14.1% of the total equity turnover on ZSE during the whole month. Following Span, there is Zaba with EUR 2.8m (or 10.8% of the total), HPB at EUR 2.6m (or 10% of the total), HT at EUR 1.3m (or 5.1% of the total), and Atlantska Plovidba, at EUR 1.3m (or 5% of the total). This would mean that the top 5 most traded stocks accounted for 45% of the total turnover.

Looking at the largest index on ZSE, CROBEX, we note that it recorded a commendable increase of 2.6% during the month and ended at 2,407.93 points. On the other hand, CROBEX10 experienced an even more pronounced 3.2% increase and ended at 1,415.62 points.

Performance of CROBEX10 constituents (July 2023, %)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

Moving on to the CROBEX10 constituents during the month, the largest increase was recorded by Končar and Span , with its share price noting a growth of 17.2% and 10%, respectively. Span is followed by HT with 4% and Podravka with 3.5%. We note that the previous month was the first one of the trading of the new ETF, 7BET, which tracks the movements of the total return version of the main index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, BET.

The numbers in July are reflective of the more positive sentiment that we have witnessed thus far during the year. This sentiment was driven by better-than-expected GDP numbers, inflation stabilization, as well as the general macroeconomic outlook being less bleak than it seemed in 2022. However, we note that interest rates remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated, which means the macro-outlook still remains uncertain.

Performance of CROBEX10 constituents (YTD, %)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

Looking at the YTD performance, one can notice a more pronounced positive sentiment. We had 9 out of 10 CROBEX10 constituents in green, with the majority of them noting a solid double-digit return. Span’s share price development, without a doubt, leads the list with an increase of as much as 65.3%. However, looking at Span’s latest share price development, a shift in short-term sentiment occurred – that was followed by a consolidation in share price afterward. Span is followed by Podravka and Končar with a strong double-digit increase of 58.1% and 56.8%, respectively. Adris (pref.) is to follow with 21.7%, Atlantic Grupa with 11.3%, HT with 10.4% and Arena Hospitality Group with 8.3%. Finally, Valamar Riviera also noted a high single-digit increase of 7.2%. Ericsson NT is the only company to note a negative share price development with an 8.1% decline on a YTD basis. This resulted in overall CROBEX10 growth of 25.4%.

The total equity turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange increased 7.4% MoM (+0.8% YoY), while SBITOP grew by 2.1% MoM, ending it at 1,256.40 points. Further, on a YTD level, LJSE experienced robust growth with SBITOP increasing by as much as 16.8%!

The total equity turnover on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange amounted to EUR 26.7m, representing a slight increase of 0.8% YoY, and a solid 7.4% MoM increase. This would also mean that the average daily turnover in July amounted to EUR 1.3m. Finally, we emphasize that LJSE noted a few consequent months of increased liquidity in equity trading this year.

In terms of the indices, Slovenia’s main index, SBITOP, increased by 2.1% MoM during July and ended the month at 1,256.40 points. At the same time, SBITOP TR grew by 3.8% MoM, ending the month at 1.645.51 points.

Monthly equity turnover on LJSE [January 2022 – July 2023]

Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research

In terms of the block trades, four block transactions were made during the month, with Krka leading the list with a block turnover of EUR 3.5m. Further, the other three block transactions amounted to below EUR 1m (Luka Koper, NLB and Petrol). Looking at equity turnover (blocks included), the largest turnover was recorded by Krka, with a turnover of EUR 14.3m (or 53.7% of the total equity turnover for the month!), followed by NLB, at EUR 3.5m (or 13.2% of the total), Luka Koper at EUR 2.8m, Sava Re at EUR 1.4m worth of equity turnover. In fact, this would mean that the top 5 most traded stocks accounted for 87% of the total turnover, while the top 10 would account for as much as 99.1%.

Taking a look at the SBITOP constituents’ performance during the month, we can see that the majority of companies recorded growth during July, while only Krka and Triglav noted a decline of more than 1%, with a decline amounting to 3.4% and 1.7%, respectively. The largest increase was recorded by Luka Koper and NLB – both companies reporting a double-digit growth of 11.6% and 10.9%, respectively. Sava Re follows with a 4.1% share price increase and Petrol with a 2.1% MoM increase. Further, Cinkarna’s share price remained flat during July, while, only Krka, Triglav and Telekom Slovenije noted a decline in share price during July.

Performance of SBITOP constituents (July 2023, MoM, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Looking at the YTD level, one can notice a more pronounced development of the Slovenian market. 7 out of 9 SBITOP constituents, along with the index itself, noted positive development, while the majority of those companies noted a strong double-digit growth. The biggest contributor to SBITOP growth on the YTD level was by far NLB with 29.8% YTD growth, combined with the second biggest weighting in the index (20.4% weight in SBITOP). Further, Krka, as the biggest heavyweight in the index, also noted a strong double-digit growth of 19.6%. Finally, the third biggest heavyweight, Petrol, is the third biggest company within the index to also noted a strong development with a 15.5% gain. This explains the majority of SBITOP’s movement during this year, so far. The only two constituents that noted a negative share price development were Equinox and Trigalv with declines of 3.6% and 3.5%, respectively.

Performance of SBITOP constituents (YTD 2023, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research