For today we decided to present you with a brief overview of share price performance across sectors for regional companies.
For this we decided to look at the median YTD share price performance of companies in our wider coverage which includes companies from Croatia, Slovenia, Romania, Serbia and Bulgaria. After witnessing a sharp drop in share prices across industries, a partial rebound occurred in almost all sectors. However, not all sectors have recovered equally.
When looking at the graph below one can notice that there are no major surprises when it comes to top or bottom performers. All observed sectors recorded a YTD decrease, with the exception of Construction.
Construction companies are on average up 14.1% YTD (median +4.6%), which came on the back of Croatian construction companies which all observed a double-digit YTD increase, with Ingra leading the list (+98.7% YTD).
Next comes Shipping, where the companies noted mixed results, however median stood at -4.2%. Of the regional shipping companies, TNG has been in the spotlight this year and is currently traded at HRK 46.2 per share (-2.1% YTD). To read more about TNG click here. On the flip side, Atlantska Plovidba observed the highest decrease among shipping companies of -57.3% YTD.
Telecommunications, Food, Insurance and Pharma, industries which seemed to bear the pandemic quite well, all witnessed a similar performance (median decrease from 9.2% to 10.6% as visible on the graph). However, it is worth mentioning that most blue chips significantly outperformed the median in their respective sector. For example, Krka is up by as much as 14.5% YTD, Atlantic Grupa is down by 2.3%, HT is down by 3.6%, while Sava RE is down by 7.2%.
On the flip side, the highest share price decreases are mostly in line with the sectors which seem to be affected the most by the ongoing Covid-19 situation. Therefore, Tourism companies witnessed a decrease of 24.9%. We note that the Tourism companies in our wider coverage are traded at a median EV/EBITDA of 9.4.
YTD Performance of Regional Companies by Sector*
*Median share price performance of regional companies in our wider coverage
In the first 10 months of 2020, GWPs declined by 0.9% YoY. GWPs in non-life insurances grew 4.8% YoY, while life insurance decreased by 15.1% YoY.
Croatian Insurance Bureau published the GWP development in October 2020. Since the beginning of the year, GWP’s observed a slight decline of 0.9% YoY (or HRK 83.84m), indicating that Croatia’s insurance sector was only grazed by the pandemic (in terms of written premiums).
The total amount of GWPs collected reached HRK 9.018bn (includes insurers located in Croatia and insurers operating in Croatia but based in another EU country). The aforementioned decrease came solely on the back of the life segment which observed a strong decline of 15.1% YoY (or HRK -396.6m) to HRK 2.22bn. Such a decrease could arguably be attributed to the maturing of policies which were underwritten coupled with lower savings through life insurance and early termination of these policies. Meanwhile, non-life segment which traditionally accounts for the biggest portion of total GWPs (75%), is still up by 4.8% YoY (or HRK 312.8m).
Croatia’s largest insurer, Croatia Osiguranje accounted for 26.3% of the market, showing a 0.1 p.p. YoY decrease.
Top & Bottom Performing Insurance Segments (Jan – October 2020 vs Jan – October 2019) (HRK m)
When observing GWPs by structure since the beginning of the year insurance against civil liability in respect of the use of motor vehicles (which accounts for 24.63% of GWPs) recorded a high increase of 11.75% YoY. Strong growth of this type of insurance can be explained by both, increase in number of policies issued (2.14%) and increase in pricing (9.64% YoY). The average premium for insurance against motor vehicle liability for damages caused to third parties amounts to HRK 1,012.20 and is 9.64% higher than in 2019, when it amounted to HRK 923.18. In 10 months of 2020, 2,043,947 policies were concluded, i.e. 42,869 policies more (+2.14% YoY) than in the same period in 2019.
The second biggest category in Non-life insurance is vehicle insurance (casco policy) which accounts for 12.4% of total GWPs, and it has recorded an increase of 2.93%. Health insurance observed also a solid YTD performance of +4.75%. Credit insurance observed a sharp decrease of 30.8% (or HRK 97.24m). This does not come as a surprise given the expected lower loan issuance activity in Croatia as a result of Covid-19 outbreak.