Last Friday, Petrol published its 2026 business plan alongside a comprehensive 2030 strategy under the tagline “Strong core, ambitious transition.” Through 2030, Petrol Group will accelerate its diversification into renewable energy and electricity supply while maintaining its core fuel retail business, targeting EUR 500m EBITDA, EUR 300m net profit, and a 60% dividend payout ratio amid continued regulatory and macroeconomic challenges.
On December 11th, the Supervisory Board of Petrol Group approved the business plan for 2026 and the strategy for 2026-2030. What’s in it, we will explain in the text to come. While structuring a plan, the current situation is the main driver for the closest future period, and we have to assess the environment where Petrol Group mostly operates. In Slovenia, which remains the Petrol Group’s largest market, consumption is slowing, wage and labour cost growth remains high, inflation persists above the long-term average, and regulatory restrictions continue to pose a challenge. In Croatia, growth is stable though slightly slower than previous forecasts, while in Serbia, uncertainty is rising due to political developments and shifts in the energy sector; however, this is also creating new sales opportunities. In such an environment, Petrol will continue to focus on cost efficiency and business model flexibility. Energy markets remain influenced by geopolitical instability, driving fluctuations in energy prices. Oil prices are affected by changes in OPEC+ production, while electricity and natural gas prices vary depending on weather conditions and renewable energy production dynamics.
Petrol and SBITOP price development (Dec 2023-Dec 2025, Dec 11 2023=100)
Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research
Now that we have some context, let’s look at the numbers, and in Petrol’s case, numbers that are trending upward, which is nice to see. In the first nine months of this year, Petrol Group generated EUR 4.53bn in revenue, representing no change in top-line YoY, at 74% of our FY estimate. Gross profit stood at EUR 577m and EBITDA at EUR 245m, representing 7% and 1% growth respectively, while net profit came in at EUR 136m, up 10% YoY. Our 2025 projections are relatively in line with their plan, with our EBITDA projected at EUR 339m versus their EUR 325m, while we share exactly the same estimates for FY 2025 net profit at EUR 178m.
Key financials for 2026, the new and more market-moving data, show sales revenue projected at EUR 5.7bn, this is below our EUR 6.13bn estimate, with the difference driven primarily by lower assumed Brent crude prices rather than volume declines. Gross profit is projected at EUR 792m, broadly in line with our estimates and showing an upward trend. EBITDA is projected at EUR 350m, and net profit at EUR 192m—matching our published estimate from March. For 2026, they expect net CAPEX of EUR 150m with a conservative net debt/EBITDA of 1.1x.
Petrol Group Key Financial’s (2024A-2030F)
Source: Petrol Group, InterCapital Research
Now for the more forward-looking horizon to 2030. The strategy, titled “Strong core, ambitious transition,” foresees EBITDA reaching EUR 500m by 2030—a 9.0% CAGR from 2025, accelerating from the 8% historic CAGR in 2021-2025. Gross profit targets EUR 1.195bn (9.9% CAGR), while net profit aims for EUR 300m (11.1% CAGR). Key operational targets include 4.4 million tonnes of fuel volumes, ~1 GW of renewable energy capacity (up from the current 96 MW), electricity supply growing to 5.5 TWh, and natural gas supply reaching 13.5 TWh.
Looking at the EBITDA mix evolution, fuels and petroleum products reduce from 46% to 41% as the company diversifies, while merchandise and services maintains 29%. The growth driver is energy and solutions, expanding from 23% to 27%, with a new circular economy pillar contributing 3%. This shift reflects management’s strategic pivot toward sustainable, higher-margin business lines. Importantly, tight government regulation of fuel margins in Slovenia has constrained profitability since 2021, but margins are expected to gradually converge toward EU averages-a development we see as a meaningful driver of margin expansion in coming years.
The financial framework is disciplined: average annual CAPEX of ~EUR 150m through 2030, with over 40% allocated to energy transition (up from ~35% in 2021-2025). Target net debt/EBITDA below 1.0x and, importantly for income investors, a progressive dividend policy targeting 60% payout ratio, up from current ~54%. Investment allocation shows 47% to fuels and petroleum products, 41% to energy and solutions, 5% to circular economy, and 7% to digitalisation.
Talking about external factors, margin regulation on core markets is the most significant near-term factor. Tight government regulation in Slovenia continues to limit profitability, though we expect gradual convergence toward EU average margins. Electrification and EV adoption, while a structural headwind, are progressing more slowly than projected, meaning minimal impact on fuel demand through 2030. This gives Petrol time to diversify while the core business keeps generating cash. Market consolidation in the Adriatic, driven by economies of scale and rising compliance costs, presents an opportunity to strengthen market position. Energy market volatility is declining from 2021-23 peaks, with electricity in a growth phase.
Beyond 2030, the picture shifts: EV penetration accelerates, customer behaviour changes toward value-for-money low-carbon offers, and traditional fuel demand declines. However, by then, the diversified portfolio being built today, renewables, electricity supply, circular economy, should become a significant profit pool. This is why selective diversification now, despite high CAPEX and long payback, is critical for long-term growth.
This strategic update is clearly positive for both the company and the share price. The EUR 500m EBITDA target by 2030 provides clear visibility on earnings growth, while the 60% dividend payout commitment and sub-1.0x leverage target ensure shareholders participate meaningfully in value creation. Management has demonstrated awareness of both challenges (margin regulation, compliance costs, eventual EV disruption) and opportunities (market consolidation, margin normalization, energy transition growth). The balanced approach—maintaining a strong core while pursuing energy transition opportunities—positions Petrol well for the evolving energy landscape.