Last Friday, both Croatia and Slovenia published their February 2025 retail trade data, revealing continued annual growth in both markets. However, monthly figures show a divergence—Croatia posted a decline in real turnover, while Slovenia maintained moderate growth. This contrast points to differing short-term consumption dynamics despite underlying resilience in both economies.
Croatia
As per the latest data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, in February 2025, the retail trade turnover increased in real terms at the annual level, while it decreased at the monthly level.
In Croatia, retail trade activity in February 2025 showed mixed signals. On a monthly basis, seasonally and working-day adjusted retail turnover of all business entities decreased by 0.9% compared to January, with food sales falling sharply by 3.7% and non-food products (excluding automotive fuels) down 0.9%. This short-term contraction, particularly in the food segment, may point to shifting consumption behavior or price sensitivity, potentially correlated with retail stores’ boycott in the whole of Croatia. However, on an annual basis, the picture is quite positive – Real retail trade turnover has continued to increase for the 23rd consecutive month at the annual level. Although the YoY growth rate has decelerated in recent months, the retail trade volume remains above prior-year levels, marking 23 consecutive months of real annual expansion.
Croatia retail trade turnover- YoY changes (Sep 2024- Feb 2025)
Source: DZS, InterCapital Research
Retail trade turnover rose by 2.6% compared to February 2024. This growth was entirely driven by non-food categories, which increased by 4.7%, while food, beverages, and tobacco saw an equivalent 4.7% decline. The first two months of 2025 cumulatively delivered a 3.5% YoY growth in retail turnover, confirming that despite short-term volatility, overall consumer spending remains resilient and shows better consumer power, which is also seen through GDP growth.
Seasonally and working-day adjusted indices (Jan 2021 = 100) (Feb 2020- Feb 2025)
Source: DZS, InterCapital Research
Slovenia
In Slovenia, the retail sector performed more consistently. February 2025 saw a 0.7% increase in real retail trade turnover compared to January, with automotive fuel sales jumping 3.1%. While food and non-food segments recorded monthly declines of 1.4% and 0.5%, respectively, their annual growth remained positive.
Compared to February 2024, total retail turnover rose by 4.3%, underpinned by increases across all major categories: automotive fuels (+3.6%), food (+0.9%), and non-food products (+0.7%). Year-to-date growth stood at 3.6%, showing a balanced contribution from all segments. Slovenia’s retail momentum appears stable and broad-based, supported by consistent consumer demand and a more uniform performance across categories, and also pressure from wage growth.
Working-day adjusted indices (2021=100) (Feb 2019- Jan 2025)
Source: SURS, InterCapital Research
Overall, retail trade in both Croatia and Slovenia shows solid YoY growth in early 2025, supported by stable consumer demand and thus rising prices. However, Croatia’s consecutive monthly declines in retail turnover suggest some short-term softness, particularly in food-related segments, which may reflect price sensitivity, bad sentiment, and post-holiday normalization. In contrast, Slovenia maintains more consistent monthly growth, driven in part by strong fuel sales and wage growth. Going forward, sustained real growth will depend on inflation dynamics, wage trends, and consumer sentiment across both markets.