Last week, we presented the 2025 forward P/E multiples of CROBEX10 constituents, and this week, we shift focus to Slovenian blue chips. While we anticipate a slight contraction in P/E multiples, 6 out of 9 index constituents are expected to post lower net income. However, we still view the index as modestly undervalued and undeniably cheap.
The forward valuation multiples presented here are based on an estimated 2025 net income attributable to majority shareholders, as forecasted by InterCapital Research or the companies themselves. At the same time, current share prices are used for calculations. As prices will inevitably fluctuate throughout 2025, we will update these multiples accordingly in our Daily Trading Multiples.
For Slovenia’s SBITOP index, we project a slight improvement in the forward P/E ratio, decreasing from 9.8x to 9.7x by the end of 2025. Despite expected earnings decline in two-thirds of the constituents, the strong performance of heavyweight names, particularly Krka and Petrol, is anticipated to anchor the index and keep valuations stable.
Current and forward 2025 P/E multiples of SBITOP constituents
Source: Companies’ data, InterCapital Research
Starting with the largest index constituent by weight, we expect Krka to post a mid-single-digit increase in net income, reaching approximately EUR 376m, slightly above the Company’s own forecast of EUR 365m. Revenue growth is projected to 5.7%, with profitability supported by effective supply chain management, optimized production, and cost controls. While G&A and S&D expenses are expected to increase, their growth should lag behind revenue, boosting operating and net margins. The CAPEX for 2025 is set at EUR 150m, up 28% YoY, focused on expanding API production and modernizing facilities.
For Petrol, we forecast a net income of approximately EUR 173m, broadly in line with the Company’s guidance. Drivers include improved fuel margins, increased B2C energy volumes, and growing commercial activities. CAPEX is set to rise significantly, from EUR 60m in 2024 to EUR 150m in 2025, with a strategic focus on energy transition investments, which are expected to support future profitability.
For NLB, we expect a net income of EUR 500m in 2025, marking a slight decline YoY due to lower interest rates. Revenues are projected to remain stable, with loan growth offsetting margin compression, while we anticipate an increased focus on strengthening the NFCI segment. The CIR is forecasted at approximately 48%, with further improvements expected over time. Moreover, potential M&A activity remains a wildcard as the bank continues to assess regional opportunities.
In 2025, Triglav aims to exceed EUR 1.8bn in total business volume, maintaining profitability across core insurance segments. The combined ratio for non-life and health segments is targeted below 95%. We estimate net profit at around EUR 115m – lower than 2024 (which included one-offs) but still indicating operational resilience – in line with Triglav’s target EBT projected to range between EUR 130m and EUR 150m.
Sava’s total business volume is expected to grow over 5%, with the non-EU market contributing above average. While the Company maintains a more conservative net profit target of at least EUR 84m, we estimate a slightly higher result of around EUR 87m, remaining relatively flat.
For Luka Koper, net profit is projected to decline slightly to around EUR 59m. The Company plans to increase hiring to support rising throughput volumes and will finance its capacity expansion projects using surplus cash. Operational costs are expected to rise in the short term as a result.
Next, despite growth in both revenue and EBITDA, Telekom Slovenije’s 2025 net profit is projected to decline to EUR 53.6m. The conservative forecast reflects regulatory uncertainties, which may impact bottom-line performance.
Cinkarna Celje shares Telekom’s conservative outlook for 2025. The Company forecasts a 35% decline in net profit to EUR 15m, reflecting cyclical industry headwinds and global trade dynamics. Increased Chinese exports to the EU – prompted by US tariffs – could pressure European producers despite anti-dumping measures. Moreover, price hikes (EUR 100-300/t) have already been announced by several Western and Chinese producers, which may provide some margin relief but still reflect increased instability and uncertainty.
Finally, for Equinox, we expect net profit to grow by 14% in 2025, as the Company’s hotel assets operate at full capacity. Higher accommodation prices and stable or increased tourist arrivals are expected to boost variable rental income. However, elevated depreciation charges could weigh on the bottom line.
SBITOP constituents earnings growth estimates (2024 vs 2025E, %)
Source: Companies’ data, InterCapital Research
