Over the past two weeks, we have witnessed heightened volatility in global capital markets, with bonds, equities, and commodities experiencing wild swings in response to geopolitical uncertainties and escalating trade war concerns. The Croatian equity market has not been spared, with CROBEX10 recording one of the biggest weekly drops in years. In light of this, we have decided to take a closer look at the index’s movement by analyzing the individual contributions of its components over the period from 2018 to today.
The years 2018 and 2019 market a relatively weak performance period for CROBEX10, which recorded an 11.4% increase over the two years (-5.6% in 2018 and +18% in 2019), especially considering that 2019 was one of the best years for global equities in recent decades. After the COVID-19 crash in 2020, the index gradually began to recover, albeit inconsistently. It was only in the past two years that CROBEX10 demonstrated significant momentum, surging my more than 70% in 2023 and 2024.
CROBEX10 price movement (January 2018 – March 2025, Index 100 = 1.1.2018)
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
During the analyzed period, a total of 15 companies have been included in the index at least once. Six of them have been constant members: Adris Grupa (pref.), Atlantic Grupa, Ericsson Nikola Tesla, Hrvatski Telekom, Podravka and Valamar Riviera. Additionally, Končar was part of the index throughout the period, except for a six-month exclusion in 2020 during the peak of lockdowns when Kraš replaced it. Currently, in addition to these “Magnificent Seven”, the CROBEX10 includes HPB, Span, and its newest addition – Končar D&ST.
Current CROBEX10 constituents performance (January 2018 – March 2025, %)*
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
* Span’s performance since the IPO (September 2021)
Now, let’s address the key question: How much have individual components contributed to CROBEX10’s near-doubling since 2018?
The clear standout performer is Končar, whose 400% price surge alone pushed the index up by over 36 p.p. Following with double-digit contributions are Podravka (+26 p.p.) and HT (+20 p.p.). Podravka’s share price has risen nearly 300% since 2018, driven by robust top and bottom line growth, substantial investment cycles, and consistent dividend payouts, making it increasingly attractive to investors. HT, benefiting from a high dividend yield and share buybacks, saw its share price climb approximately 55% since early 2023. Top individual movers like Končar D&ST and HPB also had a positive impact, though their influence was more limited due to their relatively recent inclusion in the index and lower weighting.
On the other hand, Arena Hospitality Group dragged the index down by 3.9 p.p., as the tourism sector was among the hardest hit during the analyzed period. Atlantska Plovidba, which has since been delisted, contributed a 1.7 p.p. decline, while heavily reliant on the Russian market AD Plastik weighed on the index by 0.9 p.p.
Individual impact of each CROBEX10 constituent on the index’s price (%)
Source: Bloomberg, ZSE, InterCapital Research
The Croatian equity market has undoubtedly faced a challenging period in recent years, yet some of its most liquid stocks continue to present strong investment opportunities. The sharp decline over the past two weeks reflects growing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties but also represents a natural market correction, given the above-average returns generated over the past two years. Moreover, CROBEX10 remains a diversified index, including companies from various industries such as F&B, industrials, ICT, tourism ,and banking, ensuring a broad sectoral representation.
