We are witnessing one of the most intense and competitive HNL seasons ever, with the battle for the title, European spots, and relegation becoming increasingly fierce and complex with each matchday. To momentarily shift focus from the excitement on Croatian football pitches, we took a closer look at how the clubs are performing on the financial front.

It’s well known that the Croatian league has historically been one of the least competitive and most unbalanced in Europe when measured by championship distribution. Since Hajduk Split last lifted the trophy in the 2004/2005 season, only Rijeka managed to dethrone Dinamo in 2016/2017. In other words, Dinamo has been crowned champions in 18 out of the last 20 seasons.

Looking at regional peers provides perspective on what competitive leagues look like: Austria and the Czech Republic each had four different champions over the same period. Austria is most similar to Croatia in terms of distribution (Red Bull Salzburg won the league 14 times), while the Czech league is significantly more equally distributed. Hungary and Slovenia both had six different champions, while Poland saw eight clubs crowned.

HNL Club’s 2024 Budget (EURm)

Source: Clubs data, InterCapital Research

A primary driver of the league’s disparity is the revenue gap between clubs (We’ll stay clear of the corruption and refereeing debate, at least in this blog). The league effectively breaks down in three tiers: Dinamo, the rest of the “big four”, and everyone else.

HNL Club’s 2024 Revenue Mix (% of Total Operating Income)

Source: Clubs data, InterCapital Research

Dinamo’s regular presence in UEFA competitions has been a key factor, with revenues from UEFA accounting for over 55% of their total operating income last year. This is due to participation in last season’s Conference League knock-out round and this season’s Champions League. In contrast, other clubs continue to fall short in European qualifiers. Moreover, the generally poor infrastructure throughout the league hampers revenue from ticket sales, matchday-related commercial revenues and sponsorships. “Kings of atmosphere” from Split are the most reliant on its fan base – ticket sales and commercial revenues comprise over 60% of Hajduk’s 2024 operating revenue. On the other hand, Osijek offers a prime example that budget does not guarantee results. Despite having the third-largest budget in the league, the club is still not safe from relegation. Though realistically, Šibenik is unlikely to stay in the top flight, and perhaps shouldn’t, given its scandalous situation with unpaid player wages. Osijek’s revenue is heavily propped up by “sponsorships” which, despite dropping 44% YoY, account for 50% of its operating revenue. Rijeka, often criticized for selling key players mid-season, often to direct rivals (read: Dinamo), is operating with significantly fewer resources. While their strategy might appear short-sighted or lacking in motivation, it makes a bit more sense given their budget constraints.

HNL Club’s Player Wages Costs (EURm)

Source: Club’s data, InterCapital Research

When examining wages, a familiar conclusion emerges. Fans often like to disregard wages correlation with results because “the ball is round”, “anything can happen in football”, or “money doesn’t score goals”. While romantic, the truth is clear: higher wages mean better players, and better players lead to more wins. If we look at standings or points per game, Varaždin and Rijeka are overperforming, while Osijek should be competing for Europe, rather than fighting relegation.

HNL Club’s Profitability (%)

Source: Club’s data, InterCapital Research

After wages – typically the largest operating expense – comes profitability. Here, gross profit is defined as operating revenue minus operating expenses, therefore excluding player transfers. It reflects what clubs would earn if no players were bought or sold. While losses are more common in football than in traditional industries, it’s concerning that only Dinamo and Osijek posted gross profits – Dinamo thanks to UEFA inflows, Osijek thanks to sponsorships. When we include player transfers in the equation and look at net profit, it becomes clear just how reliant HNL clubs are on player sales. While expected in a development league, this overreliance signals structural weakness, financial instability and low profitability. Also, smaller clubs like Gorica, Istra and Šibenik continue to struggle financially, but even Hajduk keeps on generating losses.

HNL Club’s Balance Sheet Equity (EURm)

Source: Club’s data, InterCapital Research

Now to the equity. After another year of red ink, Hajduk now has negative balance sheet equity, with cumulative losses reaching EUR 40m. And no, booking Vušković’s transfer when he turns 18 won’t fix this. Šibenik and Gorica are also in the red, while Rijeka and Istra carry EUR 17m and EUR 25m in accumulated losses, respectively. Dinamo, one of the few clubs that consistently generates profit, has built up EUR 23m in equity. Varaždin also deserves praise as a well-managed club with solid potential.

This season will produce the “worst champion” in HNL history (under the 10-club format), judged by points per game. It is highly likely that the champion will have less than 2.0 points per game, which is … not good. Dinamo is operating without a clear sporting strategy. Club’s commercial segment is doing better than ever, but how long will that last if results worsen? Hajduk lacks coherence both on and off the pitch. Rijeka can’t or won’t afford to keep its top talent for the whole season. Osijek is flirting with financial/ML scandal, while tensions between fans and the management are growing. Meanwhile, smaller clubs are barely closing budgets while trying to deliver results. Šibenik isn’t even paying its players.

Still, not to sound too pessimistic, not all hope is lost. Dinamo retains significant European-level quality. Hajduk’s fan base remains a force. Rijeka always finds a way to survive. Osijek is at rock bottom, so the only way is up. Clubs like Slaven, Istra and Varaždin show us that with proper scouting, play-style and strategy, the top 4 spot is within reach. Infrastructure is slowly but steadily improving, and European club competitions remain an untapped revenue stream for the rest of the league. But aside from needing a bit of luck, HNL clubs must adopt strategic business practices and prudent management – both of which are still considered a rarity in Croatian football.