With the start of 2026, we present our 2026 forward P/E multiples for CROBEX10 and SBITOP constituents, compared with current P/E multiples calculated on a trailing twelve-month basis. For 2026, we anticipate a mild contraction in valuation multiples across both markets, which combined with expected earnings growth, implies that both indices appear undervalued at current levels and, in our view, offer an attractive investment opportunity.
It is important to note that the forward valuation multiples are based on 2026 net income attributable to majority shareholders, as estimated by the InterCapital Research team or guided by the companies themselves. The same methodology applies to 2025 estimates, which are based on 9M results. Current share prices are used in all calculations, specifically the last closing prices as of 9 January 2026. As share prices will inevitably fluctuate during 2025, the presented multiples will be updated accordingly.
Current and 2026 forward P/E multiples of CROBEX10 constituents
Source: Companies’ data, InterCapital Research
Starting with Croatia’s CROBEX10 index, we expect a modest improvement in the P/E ratio from the current 11.9x to 11.6x by the end of 2026. This reflects earnings growth in 8 out of 10 index constituents, based on estimated 2025 results.
Beginning with the two flagship names on the ZSE, Končar and Končar D&ST, we anticipate earnings growth of 6.9% and 6.5%, respectively. While both companies are expected to continue growing revenues and profits, we foresee a moderate decline in margins due to increased investment activity. Higher CAPEX-related depreciation and amortization, as well as rising employee costs, are expected to exert some pressure on margins, although they should remain at historically elevated levels.
CROBEX10 constituents earnings growth estimates (2025E vs 2026E, %)
Source: Companies’ data, InterCapital Research
The company with the strongest expected earnings growth is Atlantic Grupa, with a projected increase of 26.4%. Coffee and cocoa prices are expected to remain elevated but gradually normalize, while the Group has limited downside risk given its partial hedging strategy, which mitigates the impact of potential input price shocks.
Adris Grupa, Ericsson Nikola Tesla, and Valamar Riviera are expected to record earnings growth of 7.8%, 7.5%, and 7.2%, respectively. Growth expectations are supported by a strong outlook for the 2026 tourist season and the opening of new hotels, robust insurance operations at Adris Grupa, and continued digitalization and ICT infrastructure rollout benefiting Ericsson Nikola Tesla, with a positive impact on revenues as well.
Hrvatski Telekom is expected to maintain mid single-digit earnings growth, while ING-GRAD is projected to deliver broadly stable net profit levels.
On the other hand, profit declines are expected at HPB and Podravka. HPB delivered exceptionally strong results in 2023 and 2024, supported by elevated ECB key interest rates. As rates have begun to decline, interest income has followed suit. Looking ahead, we expect the ECB to keep rates broadly stable in the near term, with limited room for meaningful changes, which constrains further earnings growth. In the case of Podravka, 2025 results are significantly affected by a one-off expense of EUR 55m related to the acquisition of agricultural companies from the Fortenova Group. As a result, reported profit is expected to decline compared to 2025 estimate. However, on a normalized basis, we still see low single-digit earnings growth in 2026.
Turning to Slovenia, we expect 5 out of 9 SBITOP constituents to record an increase in net profit attributable to majority shareholders in 2026. Consequently, the 2026 forward P/E multiple for SBI TOP stands at 12.2x, representing a moderate improvement compared to the current level of 12.4x.
Current and 2026 forward P/E multiples of SBITOP constituents
Source: Companies’ data, InterCapital Research
Following a decline in 2025, we expect NLB’s net income to recover modestly in 2026 and to continue its growth trajectory in the years ahead. Although lower interest rates have weighed on profitability, similar to HPB, NLB has achieved strong loan growth. As one of the largest banks in the SEE region, we expect this momentum to persist.
Telekom Slovenije is expected to follow a similar path to Hrvatski Telekom, delivering mid single-digit earnings growth and a slight improvement in valuation multiples.
We expect double-digit bottom-line growth at three companies: Zavarovalnica Triglav (+27.5%), Equinox (+15.8%), and Petrol (+11.1%) compared to our 2025 estimates. Triglav is set to benefit from its international expansion in the Polish and Italian markets. Equinox should post a full year of increased capacity utilization following significant refurbishments and upgrades completed over recent quarters. Petrol is expected to benefit from margin improvements, higher volumes of B2C energy sales, and continued capitalization on its renewable energy investments.
On the downside, four companies are expected to record lower net profit in 2026: Cinkarna Celje (-55.6%), Luka Koper (-6.9%), Krka (-6.6%) and Sava Re (-3.2%). In the case of Cinkarna Celje, the primary driver is the anticipated decline in TiO₂ prices amid weak demand in European markets, which account for over 80% of sales. As a response, the Company plans to increase its exposure to the US market, where demand for TiO₂ is strengthening. Despite expecting higher throughput in 2026, Luka Koper anticipates short-term profitability pressure due to higher labor costs driven by additional employment, the reintegration of agency workers, and intensified CAPEX related to terminal capacity expansions and new storage facilities. Sava Re is expected to experience margin normalization, with the reinsurance balance shifting back to a small loss and somewhat lower investment income.
Krka’s net result remains highly sensitive to RUB exchange rate movements, as reflected in its net financial income. The strength of the rouble in 2025 has materially lifted near-term profitability, with 2025E net income now expected to exceed EUR 415m. Despite an expected normalization of earnings in 2026E, Krka is still a company with strong cash generation, a significant net cash position, and a resilient dividend profile.
SBITOP constituents earnings growth estimates (2025E vs 2026E, %)
Source: Companies’ data, InterCapital Research
Overall, both markets remain undervalued in our view and continue to offer attractive investment opportunities. Beyond the strong operational results delivered over the past few years, investor appeal is further enhanced by the availability of ETFs tracking these indices, easily accessible via our Genius app. Investors seeking more targeted exposure to individual stocks can also contact our brokerage team at [email protected].
Stay invested and diversified 🙂