Two of the three leading global credit rating agencies have recently published their updates for Slovenia. Fitch upgraded the sovereign rating to ‘A+’ with a Stable Outlook, while Moody’s reaffirmed the ‘A3’ rating with a Positive Outlook. Meanwhile, AM Best reaffirmed ‘A’ ratings for two major Slovenian insurers – Triglav and Sava Re.

First, on 3 October, Fitch Ratings upgraded Slovenia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from ‘A’ to ‘A+’, maintaining a stable outlook. The upgrade reflects strengthening credit fundamentals, continued debt reduction, and a balanced primary budget following several years of fiscal consolidation. Fitch expects Slovenia to maintain this trend, supporting a further decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio while preserving ample liquidity buffers. The agency also noted progress on structural reforms, which are easing medium- and long-term fiscal pressures associated with population ageing. Despite multiple external shocks, including the pandemic and the energy crisis, Slovenia’s economy has shown resilience, with GDP per capita rising relative to the ‘A’-rated peer median.

Furthermore, last Friday (10 October), Moody’s completed its periodic review of Slovenia, reaffirming the ‘A3’ sovereign rating with a positive outlook. Moody’s assessed Slovenia’s economic strength at ‘baa1’, citing its high income levels and diversified industrial base compared to regional peers. However, the agency warned that growth potential remains constrained by an ageing population and labor shortages, while the small and open nature of the economy keeps it exposed to external shocks. The institutional and governance strength score of ‘a2’ reflects robust governance, prudent fiscal management, and a forward-looking debt strategy, although policy responses to ageing-related fiscal pressures have sometimes lagged. Slovenia’s fiscal strength, rated ‘aa3’, benefits from strong debt affordability and substantial financial assets, which offset its relatively high debt burden. Moody’s expects further fiscal consolidation and improvement, underpinning the positive outlook. Event risk, rated ‘baa’, continues to stem from geopolitical exposure, particularly due to the ongoing war in Ukraine. A key element in Moody’s assessment is the pension reform approved by parliament on 19 September 2025, a cornerstone of Slovenia’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP). However, the reform faces a potential referendum challenge if 40,000 verified signatures are collected by mid-November. Its implementation is crucial to unlock EUR 1.6bn in grants and EUR 613m in loans under the RRP. As of September 2025, Slovenia had already received EUR 672.5m in grants and EUR 426.2m in loans. Moody’s maintained its positive outlook, indicating a higher probability of an upgrade should fiscal metrics improve faster than expected. Potential upgrade triggers include faster fiscal consolidation and debt reduction, adoption of the pension reform mitigating ageing costs, and structural reforms that enhance long-term growth potential.

In parallel, AM Best completed its annual review of Slovenian insurers, reaffirming the Financial Strength Rating of ‘A’ (Excellent) and the Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating of ‘a’ (Excellent) for both Zavarovalnica Triglav and Pozavarovalnica Triglav Re, with a stable outlook. The agency highlighted Triglav’s very strong capital position, robust risk management, and proven financial flexibility, supported by consistent market access. Its leading market position in Slovenia and the wider Adriatic region, combined with a diversified portfolio, continues to anchor its competitive advantage. AM Best emphasized that Triglav Re remains strategically integral to the Group. The reaffirmed ratings reflect confidence in sustainable profitability, following strong 2024 results and solid expectations for 2025, consistent with upgraded profit guidance.

AM Best also reaffirmed the same ratings and outlook for Sava Re. the decision reflects a very strong balance sheet, supported by the highest level of risk-adjusted capitalization (as measured by Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR)), high liquidity, conservative reserving, and strong internal capital generation. Sava Re’s operating performance was described as consistently strong, driven by both life and non-life underwriting and supported by healthy investment income. Return on equity rose to 14.2% in 2024 (from 11.6% in 2023), while the combined ratio improved to 90.7% (from 92.7%). For H1 2025, Sava Re reported a net profit of EUR 57.7m and an exceptional combined ratio of 86.0%, underscoring its sustained operational strength and underwriting discipline.