Today, we’re bringing you an overview of the ZSE and LJSE, how the trading activity went, and how the stocks performed in the first quarter of 2025.

Croatia

Starting off with Croatia, the total equity turnover during Q1 2025 amounted to EUR 157.8m, while excluding blocks, it amounted to EUR 123m. In terms of the average daily turnover, it stood at EUR 1.98m, an increase of 37% compared to the same quarter last year. One other noteworthy thing to mention is the ETF turnover, which amounted to EUR 14.6m during Q1, representing approximately 11.8% of the entire equity turnover (excl. blocks). The increase in the investments in ETFs is also visible on the YoY basis, as the ETF turnover during the same period last year amounted to EUR 5.9m, representing app. 6.4% of the total equity turnover (excl. blocks). In other words, the ETF turnover has more than doubled in absolute value and almost doubled as a % of the total equity turnover. In the current period, with a lot of uncertainty, ETFs offer several advantages: lower costs, diversification, and “access” to dividends that are reinvested instead of taxed. Judging by the numbers, this is something that was recognized by investors on the ZSE, which is certainly positive news, as more and more people are investing in financial instruments, although the majority of the investments are made into risk, but also low return bonds or treasury bills.

Monthly equity turnover on ZSE (January 2024 – March 2025, EURm)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

Coming back to equity, from the numbers, we can also see that there was an above-average level of investments made in January, with a total equity turnover of EUR 71.8m, before decreasing to between EUR 41m and EUR 45m during February and March, respectively. This means that for each respective month, an increase was recorded as compared to the same period last year.

However, looking at the turnover itself does not tell the whole story, and a deeper look at which companies actually drove that turnover is prudent. In terms of the most traded stocks, Končar stood in the first place with EUR 20.7m, representing app. 17% of the entire turnover on the exchange. If we take into account Končar D&ST (both ordinary and preferred), which had turnovers of EUR 9.4m and EUR 7.9m, respectively, this would mean that Končar and its subsidiary accounted for app. 31% of the entire turnover on the exchange. In terms of the other stocks, HT recorded a turnover of EUR 9.3m, followed by ZABA at EUR 9m and Valamar Riviera at EUR 8.46m. In total, the top 10 most traded stocks accounted for 68% of the entire equity turnover on the exchange.

Performance of CROBEX10 constituents (Q1 2025, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

In terms of the performance of the Croatian blue chips, the biggest increase during Q1 was recorded by Span, which grew by 9.3%, followed by HT at 8.2%, Valamar Riviera at 6.9%, Adris grupa (pref.) at 6.8%, and Končar D&ST at 6.7%. For Span, the growth was driven by improved financial results, including better margins, as large investments that the Company made into employees are starting to bear fruit. Furthermore, the Company’s stock was under pressure last year due to these higher investments, which affected margins, so the growth here could also be seen as a “recovery”. HT’s increase was a continuation of the Company’s stable business results, with revenue, EBITDA, and net income all recording improvements during 2024.

Valamar Riviera also recorded solid stock price growth, supported by some of the biggest investments both in Croatia, but also in the Company’s history into new, luxury hotels, as well as continued upgrades to the current portfolio. A similar situation was present with Adris, and as its preferential stock is usually more liquid (and is part of the CROBEX10 index), the price increase was present here. Besides large investments (such as Marjan Hotel in Split), Adris’ other segments, such as insurance, also performed well. Lastly, Končar D&ST has been the star of Končar Group in general, with its transformers segment recording high demand, a large backlog, and higher margins, which is expected to continue going forward and has fueled much of the subsidiary’s, but also Končar’s, growth. Končar is also worth mentioning here, as it was just below its subsidiary at 5% growth in Q1, also supported by high growth in revenue, EBITDA, and net income. Lastly, ING-GRAD, the latest IPO on ZSE, has (since 10 March 2025, when it debuted on the ZSE), recorded a modest 3.3% growth, supported by the high interest by investors during its IPO, but also good business results, that by looking at the backlog alone, would bring in significant revenue & EBITDA, and net income improvements in the next 2 years, at the very least.

On the other hand, HPB’s stock suffered the most, with an 8.8% decrease in Q1 2025. This was to be expected, as the ECB started decreasing interest rates, which, while it takes time, signals that loan interest rates will have to decrease as well. Other listed banks, such as ZABA, are in a similar predicament, although ZABA positioned itself better as it is the market leader in Croatia. Overall, the pressure on the banking sector, both its fundamentals and the stock price, could be expected to continue in the coming period.

Slovenia

Turning our attention to Slovenia, the total equity turnover during Q1 2025 amounted to EUR 195.4m, while excluding blocks, it amounted to 166.8m. ETF turnover hasn’t picked up as much in Slovenia, representing only 1.8% of the total equity turnover, although this is a large (relative) improvement from 0.1% in 2024 and an even larger jump in absolute numbers – from EUR 135k to EUR 2.9m. In terms of the average daily turnover, it amounted to EUR 2.7m in Q1 2025, growing by 84% YoY.

Monthly equity turnover on LJSE (January 2024 – March 2025, %)

Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research

Moving on to the most traded stocks, Krka and NLB were the absolute champions, both standing far above the rest at EUR 71.1m and EUR 45.5m, respectively. In fact, this represents 43% and 27% of the total equity turnover, or combined, 70% of the total equity turnover! Of course, this doesn’t come as a surprise, as the equity market in Slovenia is far more concentrated, with many times fewer companies than in Croatia listed on the exchange. Moving on, Petrol recorded a turnover of EUR 17m, representing 10% of the total turnover, followed by Sava Re and Triglav at EUR 8.9m and EUR 8.8m, or 5% of the total each, respectively. If we look at the top 10 companies, they recorded an equity turnover of EUR 163.6m, representing over 98% of the total equity turnover on the exchange.

Performance of SBITOP constituents (Q1 2025, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

In terms of the actual performance of the Slovenian blue chips, all except one recorded a double-digit growth rate in Q1 2025. Petrol led the way at 35.9% growth, as the Company finally recorded better and recovering results after 2 years in a very uncertain and expensive energy market. Following them was Krka, which experienced a 23% increase as the company continued to expand across all regions, with improved revenue, EBITDA, and profitability numbers. Sava Re also recorded good financial results. Next up is Telekom Slovenije, a 19% growth in Q1, supported also by good financial results, but also by speculation about a possible separation of its telecommunication tower network into another company, which could improve costs & profitability. As of right now, however, this only remains speculation.

On the other hand, Equinox recorded an increase of “only” 5.3% in Q1, supported also by better business results, while NLB grew by 10.6%. NLB’s profits were under pressure during FY 2024 due to the higher levels of impairments and the balance sheet tax, while the net interest margin largely stabilized. However, this was offset by strong loan & deposit growth, which allowed the Group to expand its NII, NFCI, and net banking income. Furthermore, the Group recently also announced its intention to pay out a higher dividend this year (50% of 2024’s net profit, app. EUR 12.86 DPS), which also supported results. Given the fact that the Group is spread out across the SEE region, the hit on margins due to the reduction in interest rates hasn’t yet materialized. As such, the overall results were positive, leading to price appreciation.

Lastly, taking a look at the main blue-chip indices in Croatia and Slovenia, CROBEX10 and SBITOP, they recorded increases of 4.4% and 21.3% during Q1 2025.