Today, we take a closer look at the performance of the Zagreb and Ljubljana Stock Exchanges over the first nine months of 2025, focusing on equity turnover and market dynamics. As was the case in H1, the 9M period continued to deliver robust momentum, with total equity turnover rising by 101% in Zagreb and 71.8% in Ljubljana compared to the same period last year, a clear indicator of deepening investor participation and liquidity in the region.
The year began under challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, which were even more intense in Q2 as tariff issues dominated the global agenda. While those tensions remain present today, they are no longer at the forefront of market dynamics, which has helped ease some of the pressure on investor sentiment. However, following the turbulence sparked by “Liberation Day” in early Q2, markets quickly regained their footing, entering a renewed bull phase. The S&P 500 advanced 13.97% in the first nine months, underscoring the resilience of risk assets despite heightened global uncertainty.
However, when evaluating global equity performance against our regional markets, one crucial factor must not be overlooked: currency movements. While the USD and EUR were nearly at parity at the beginning of the year, the dollar has since depreciated roughly 12% against the euro YTD. As a result, when expressed in EUR, the primary currency for regional investors, the real return of the S&P 500 falls to just about 2 to 3%. This currency-adjusted perspective is vital when benchmarking global indices against regional equity performance, which is priced in EUR. Moreover, with many analysts expecting the dollar’s depreciation trend to persist into 2026, the relative appeal of USD-denominated instruments could diminish further, which in turn makes investments priced in euros, and therefore regional equity markets, relatively more attractive.
Shifting the focus to market activity, the momentum on regional exchanges did not slow in the third quarter. Trading volumes continued to expand at a strong pace, with elevated activity becoming the new normal and depth in the order books steadily improving. For our analysis, we consider total equity turnover, including trading in shares, ETFs, and block transactions, and all three segments showed remarkable growth in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period last year.
On the Zagreb Stock Exchange, total equity turnover reached EUR 585.2m in the 9M period, compared with EUR 291.2m in the same period last year. This represents a significant 101% YoY increase, accelerating on the already impressive 88.7% YoY growth recorded in the first half of the year. As highlighted earlier, the successful IPOs of ING-GRAD and Žito played an important role in this expansion. However, the broader picture shows a market that is maturing and broadening, supported by strong company fundamentals, rising investor confidence, and a steadily increasing participation of retail investors alongside institutional ones. This structural change is visibly improving liquidity and contributing to a more dynamic and vibrant trading environment.
Monthly equity turnover on ZSE (9M 2025 vs 9M 2024, EURm)
Source: ZSE, Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
Looking at the structure of trading, continuous equity turnover reached EUR 390.6m, an 85% increase from EUR 210.9m a year earlier. Decent growth was recorded in ETFs, where turnover more than doubled to EUR 41.8m (+119.5% YoY), highlighting the growing appetite for diversified investment products. Block trading activity was even more pronounced, jumping 149% YoY to EUR 152.7m, driven primarily by large transactions in Končar Group (KOEI) and Končar D&ST (KODT), as well as several other strategic trades. As a result, average daily turnover rose to EUR 3.5m, up from EUR 2.9m at mid-year, further underlining the improvement in market liquidity.
In terms of individual stocks, Končar once again dominated trading, with EUR 111m in turnover, accounting for around 19% of total activity across all segments. It was followed by Končar D&ST (EUR 31m, 5.5%) and Hrvatski Telekom (just above 5%). ING-GRAD, which was listed in March, achieved an impressive fourth place with 4% of total turnover, while Valamar Riviera rounded out the top five with around 3.3% of total turnover. Altogether, the five most traded stocks accounted for 37% of total activity, while the top ten made up just over 48%.
Performance was equally strong. Končar D&ST delivered an outstanding 94.4% share price increase in the first nine months, followed by Končar Group with a gain of 46.8%. These results are not driven by speculation or temporary market dynamics but by strong fundamentals, consistent earnings delivery, and clear growth potential, leaving room for further appreciation. The preferred shares of Adris advanced 33.6%, while ING-GRAD and Valamar Riviera both rose by 19.1%.
Performance of CROBEX10 constituents (9M 2025, %)
Source: ZSE, Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
Single-digit increases were also recorded by Hrvatski Telekom (+6%), Ericsson Nikola Tesla (+3.5%), and Podravka (+2.4%). On the downside, HPB declined 7.5% and Atlantic Grupa fell 9.4%. Overall, the CROBEX10 Total Return Index, which includes dividends, gained 23% during the period. It is worth returning here to the comparison with global markets made at the beginning of this analysis: while the S&P 500’s performance in USD terms appears strong, the domestic market delivered high double-digit returns in EUR, reflecting the strength of well-established companies and the increasing maturity of the regional capital market.
Moving to the Slovenian market, we can comfortably say it is among the fastest-growing in the world this year, and it is right next door. We will come to the performance, but first, as with Croatia, we start with turnover. The trend mirrors Zagreb, in short, strong growth in volumes and liquidity. In total turnover, we include equity trading, block transactions, and ETFs. In the first nine months, total turnover reached EUR 613.2m, compared with EUR 357m in the same period last year, an increase of 71.8% YoY. After 66.8% in the first half, the momentum is clear.
The breakdown confirms the breadth of this expansion. Equity trading amounted to EUR 526m, versus EUR 330m last year, an increase of 59.4% YoY. ETF turnover came in at EUR 6m, compared with less than EUR 0.5m last year, more than a twelvefold increase. Block trading reached a very solid EUR 80.1m, compared with EUR 26.5m last year, up 205% YoY. Average daily turnover stands at EUR 3.3m. There were no new listings in Slovenia as there were in Croatia, yet turnover continues to climb because the markets and investors are closely connected, our pension funds are active on the LJSE as on the ZSE, the two exchanges share ownership and infrastructure, and most importantly, LJSE companies are delivering quality results and their fundamentals are good.
Monthly equity turnover on LJSE (9M 2025 vs 9M 2024, EURm)
Source: LJSE, Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
On the list of most traded names, the ranking remains familiar. Krka leads with an exceptional EUR 247.5m, about 40% of total turnover. NLB follows with EUR 126m, or 20.6%. Next come Triglav at about 7.7%, Petrol at 7.1%, and Sava Re at 5.9%. The top five account for 81.6% of trading. Concentration is high relative to the ZSE, but the roster of issuers on the LJSE is naturally smaller, so the profile is understandable. Still, the fact that the top two names account for roughly 60% of turnover is important for understanding liquidity and price formation.
On performance, the picture is decisively positive. On the Slovenian chart, there is nothing below or around zero, unlike Croatia, and the same was true at mid-year. The Slovenian market obviously doesn’t know what means negative return. The strongest gain came from Luka Koper at 73.8%. Petrol follows with 57.8%, then Sava Re at 56.3%. Krka is also in the group above 50%, up 54%. After that, Triglav advanced 43.2%, NLB 41.2%, while at the “lower end” of the leader-board, we have Cinkarna Celje at 26.7%, Telekom Slovenije at 24.3%, and Equinox at 11.3%. These are outstanding results, especially given that volumes, liquidity, and investor interest all strengthened in step through the year. This brings us to the performance itself: the SBITOP index recorded an impressive 55.6% growth in 9M, a result that stands well above global averages and highlights the strength of the Slovenian market. Exposure to this growth story through our 7SLO ETF has proven rewarding for investors during this remarkable period. And for those who have not yet included Slovenia in their portfolios, these results serve as a strong reminder of the opportunities that can emerge even in markets that are often overlooked.
Performance of SBITOP constituents (9M 2025, %)
Source: LJSE, Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
Overall, the first nine months of 2025 were both dynamic and rewarding for investors across regional capital markets. Despite heightened global volatility, turnover in equities, block trades, and ETFs rose significantly, driven by renewed investor confidence and robust market participation. Notably, regional markets once again outperformed several developed peers and major global benchmarks, including the S&P 500, underscoring the value of diversification. At InterCapital, we take pride in maintaining our position as the leading broker, market maker, and sole ETF provider in both Croatia and Slovenia. We extend our congratulations to all investors who successfully captured the upside of these vibrant and prosperous nine months in our markets.