At its latest annual meeting, Tesla shareholders approved a USD 1tn compensation plan for Elon Musk, marking the largest executive package in corporate history. The vote ensures Musk remains at the company’s helm while tying his potential payout to ambitious performance milestones that could push Tesla’s valuation beyond USD 8tn. The plan symbolizes both Tesla’s confidence in its long-term growth and the extraordinary expectations now embedded in its future.

Elon Musk has once again stirred the global media with a historic new bonus plan, one that could make him the world’s first trillionaire. When he joined Tesla as CEO back in 2008, few could have imagined how his approach to compensation would redefine corporate governance. His first performance-based package, adopted in 2012, was revolutionary: Musk rejected any fixed salary or annual bonus and instead received options to purchase 5.27 million shares at USD 2.48 per share, conditional entirely on Tesla meeting a set of operational and market capitalization goals. That package included 20 milestones to be achieved over ten years, half tied to market value, half to operating performance, such as vehicle deliveries, production volumes, and profitability thresholds. Musk achieved all of them in half the allotted time, by 2018, earning the full package and delivering a 17-fold increase in Tesla’s share price compared to 2012. It should be noted that Elon was also supposed to get the 2018 CEO Performance Award, with up to USD 55-56bn in payment, but this has caused many legal disputes and has not been paid out to this day. Nonetheless, it was the blueprint for all future compensation models, a full-risk, full-reward mechanism that directly aligned Musk’s wealth with Tesla’s success.

More than a decade later, Tesla shareholders have approved an even more ambitious plan. The newly adopted USD 1 tn compensation package, endorsed by 75% of shareholders, is the largest ever granted to a corporate executive and could expand Musk’s ownership from roughly 15% to as much as 25%, provided Tesla hits a series of extraordinary market and operational milestones. The plan spans ten years and consists of stock options awarded progressively as the company reaches its targets. These milestones range from market capitalization levels of USD 4 tn up to USD 8.5 tn and EBITDA targets from USD 50 bn to USD 400 bn, alongside operational goals you can see down below.

Market Value and Operational Milestones

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Consensus estimates from Bloomberg provide a useful benchmark for gauging how far Tesla stands from those milestones. Analysts forecast revenue to rise from USD 95.3 bn in 2025 to USD 190.2 bn by 2029, an 18.7% CAGR. EBITDA is projected to grow from USD 12.9 bn in 2025 to USD 41.1 bn by 2029, a CAGR of roughly 33%. Net profit is expected to increase from USD 4.6 bn to almost USD 20 bn. While these numbers reflect exceptional growth potential, they remain distant from the upper part of Musk’s USD 400 bn EBITDA milestone, though the lower thresholds in the plan are not out of reach if Tesla executes flawlessly.

At a share price of around USD 430, Tesla’s market capitalization stands at USD 1.428 tn, with an enterprise value of USD 1.401 tn, nearly identical given its neutral net cash position. Bloomberg’s EV/EBITDA ratios of 51× for 2028 and 35× for 2029 are calculated based on today’s EV relative to those future EBITDA estimates, meaning the ratios only show how profitability growth compresses multiples if the valuation remains unchanged. They do not suggest Tesla will be valued at those multiples in 2029, but rather how much future earnings strength is already priced into today’s share price.

Using Tesla’s 3.22 bn shares outstanding, assuming no dilution and market cap roughly equal to enterprise value, the implied share prices at Musk’s target milestones would be approximately USD 1,242 at USD 4 tn, USD 1,398 at USD 4.5 tn, USD 1,553 at USD 5 tn, USD 1,708 at USD 5.5 tn, USD 1,863 at USD 6 tn, and USD 2,019 at USD 6.5 tn. These levels illustrate the exponential expectations embedded in the company’s long-term narrative. Applying the corresponding EBITDA milestones, the implied EV/EBITDA multiples decline from 80× at USD 4 tn to 16× at USD 6.5 tn, a theoretical transition from hyper-growth to a mature global industrial leader.

Tesla Key Financials and Bloomberg Estimates (2023A-2028F, USDbn)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Still, Tesla cannot be valued through the same lens as Ford, Toyota, or BYD, which trade at EV/EBITDA multiples between 4× and 8× and P/E ratios of 8–12×. Tesla’s valuation operates in a different universe, closer to technology leaders like Nvidia or Apple, where EV/EBITDA multiples often range between 20× and 40×. The market continues to price Tesla as an innovation platform centered on AI, autonomy, and robotics rather than a traditional automaker. Its story is built on the promise of future profit pools from Full Self-Driving software, energy systems, and humanoid robots. In essence, it is still more vision than balance sheet, but one with increasingly visible momentum.

Tesla’s ownership structure further reinforces the story of concentrated control and conviction. Musk currently owns about 15% of Tesla, a stake that could rise to 25% if the package is fully realized, though with expected dilution. Vanguard Group holds 7.56%, BlackRock 6.2%, followed by State Street, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. Approximately 50% of shares are institutionally held, 15% by insiders, and 15% by retail investors, the most vocal supporters of Tesla’s stock narrative. Market sentiment remains split: Bloomberg tracks 29 analysts rating the stock a Buy, 18 Hold, and 16 Sell, reflecting a wide gap between the believers and the skeptics.

Ultimately, this pay package is less a guaranteed reward and more a symbolic wager, a carrot for the bunny, a motivator for Musk and investors alike. Or perhaps Tesla’s board knows something every Bloomberg analyst does not. These are astronomical figures, and by consensus, Tesla is on track for strong financial growth and expanding margins. Yet, remember, the last time he was given a performance package with seemingly unreachable targets, he achieved them in half the time. But the market, for now, is still pricing the story more than the reality. Until EBITDA begins climbing into the hundreds of billions, the gap between vision and fundamentals will remain. The USD 1 tn incentive is not just a bonus; it is a bet that Tesla will turn the impossible into operational fact, transforming faith, innovation, and scale into profitability on a level never seen before.