At the end of October 2022, the total arrivals in Croatia amounted to 940.8k, which is an increase of 36% YoY. At the same time, total tourist nights amounted to 3.25m, which is an increase of 22% YoY.
Recently, the Croatia Tourist Board (HTZ) published its latest report on the state of Croatian tourism, for October 2022. With the summer season officially over and the beginning of the post-season, it is interesting to take a look at how the industry as a whole is doing, especially after the publishing of the 9M 2022 results for Croatian tourism companies recently. According to HTZ’s report, October continues the trend of growth in both tourist arrivals and nights compared to 2021, but compared to 2019, the levels are lagging.
Overall, the total tourist arrivals in October 2022 amounted to 940.8k, which is an increase of 36% YoY, but a decrease of 16% compared to 2019. This also marks one of the largest reductions compared to 2019, as the numbers during the season were in the low to mid-single digits, which now surpassed a double-digit reduction. However, as October is already in the post-season, the number of arrivals and nights is significantly lower than during the summer season, and as such, the 16% reduction is not as much in absolute terms. Of course, this can reflect the overall macroeconomic sentiment in Europe right now. After 2 years of limited travel, tourists were finally able to travel to Croatia normally in 2022, but due to higher prices because of high inflation and higher costs on the side of hospitality companies, the number of arrivals and nights was lower. The reduction in October can be a sign of the further trend to come; with the reduction in disposable incomes increasing due to inflation, which is also affecting the savings, which played a crucial role in “weathering” the higher prices set during the summer season.
Moving back to the data, of the 940.8k of arrivals in October 2022, foreign tourist arrivals amounted to 734.9k, or 78% of the total, which is an increase of 44% YoY, but a decrease of 21% compared to 2019. Domestic tourist arrivals accounted for 205.8k, or the remaining 22%, growing by 14% YoY, and 10% compared to 2019.
In terms of tourist nights, the total tourist nights amounted to 3.25m in October 2022, which is an increase of 22% YoY, but a decrease of 14% compared to 2019. Of this, foreign tourist nights amounted to 2.77m, or 85% of the total nights, which represents an increase of 25% YoY, but a decrease of 11% compared to 2019. On the other hand, domestic tourist nights amounted to 478.3k, (or the remaining 15%), which is an increase of 14% YoY, but a decrease of 31% compared to 2019. This would also mean that the average stay per person amounted to 3.45 nights per person, which compared to the last year, is a decrease of 10.8%, and compared to 2019, an even more significant decrease of 39.4%. This is in line with the above assumptions, as higher prices of accommodation mean that even despite the fact that the tourism industry is operating normally, people are choosing shorter periods of stay in Croatia.
Total tourist arrivals and tourist nights in Croatia (January 2019 – October 2022)
Source: HTZ, InterCapital Research
When looking at the tourist nights by country of origin, in October, German tourists still maintained the highest proportion of the total, at 24%, followed by domestic tourists at 15%, Austrian tourists at 9%, UK tourists at 8%, Slovenian tourists at 7%, and tourists from the US at 4%. As already mentioned, the total number of arrivals and nights in October is a lot lower than during the summer season, but arrivals from the UK and USA also mean that travel by airplane is recovering, which is a welcoming sign. Moving on to the counties arranged by the number of tourist nights, Splitsko-dalmatinska leads the way at 691.4k, followed closely by Istra with 684.4k, Kvarner with 482.8k, Dubrovačko-neretvanska with 469.1k, and Zadarska, at 310.2k.
Looking at the data since the beginning of the year, in the 10M of 2022, the number of arrivals amounted to 18.1m, of which, an increase of 37% YoY. Of this, foreign tourists accounted for 15.8m, which is an increase of 41% YoY, while domestic tourists accounted for the remaining 2.35m, an increase of 12% YoY. On the other hand, tourist nights during this period amounted to 102.6m, which is an increase of 24% YoY. Of this, foreign tourists accounted for 91m, an increase of 28%, while domestic tourists accounted for 11.9m of tourists nights, an increase of 2% YoY.
In September, passenger car registration in the EU increased by 9.6% YoY, totaling 787,870 units. Meanwhile, in January – September 2022 EU demand for new cars decreased 9.9% YoY. In Croatia in the mentioned period passenger car registration reported a slightly lower decrease of 6.9% YoY, while only in September an increase of 22.6% YoY was noted.
In September 2022, passenger car registration in the EU increased by 9.6% YoY, totaling 787,870 units. The biggest increase reported in the EU by far was in Germany, Spain, France and Italy, where the reported increase amounted to 27.8k units, 7.6k units, 7.3k units and 5.7k units, respectively, representing 14.1%, 12.7%, 5.5% and 5.4% YoY increase. Furthermore, no major regions reported a decrease in new passenger car registrations.
When observing January – September 2022, the situation is relatively different – EU demand for new cars decreased by 9.9% YoY, reaching 6.7m units registered in total. When observing the whole period, Italy, as the major market, reported the highest decrease of 16.3% YoY with total car registration amounting to 976.1k units (decreasing by 189.6k units). This decrease was further amplified by a decrease in another two major markets, Germany and France. Germany reported a decrease of 7.4% YoY and France reported a decrease of 11.8%, which is a decrease of 149.7k and 148.3k units of cars registered, respectively. Spain, which is also considered a major market, also reported a decrease of 7.4% YoY in the mentioned period.
Looking at the region, when observing the whole period since the beginning of the year, Croatia reported a decrease of 6.9% YoY, amounting to 34.6k units registered. Looking at data only for September, Croatia reported an increase of 22.6% YoY, amounting to 3.4k units registered. Slovenia reported a similar situation – when observing the whole period, Slovenia reported a decrease of 14.7% YoY, amounting to 36.8k units of the car registered.
Also, the outlook is still threatened by the lack of harnesses, which is used to hold together electric cabling inside of a car and produced mostly in Ukraine – which due to obvious reasons, does not look optimistic. Some suppliers in Ukraine have begun restarting operations, according to car manufacturers. Almost all plants used in production currently working are unable to produce at the full rate of capacity.