IC Market Espresso 7 Feb 2024

 
Ljubljana Stock Exchange Starts Year with Impressive Gains

In January 2024, the total equity turnover on the LJSE decreased by 21.9% MoM, and increased 13.6% YoY. During the same period, the SBITOP recorded a solid 5.7% increase MoM, ending at 1,324.66 points.

Ljubljana Stock Exchange, LJSE, published its latest monthly trading activity report, for the month of January 2024. According to the report, the total equity turnover on LJSE amounted to EUR 25.8m, representing a decrease of 21.9% MoM, and a 13.6% YoY increase. In terms of the average daily turnover, it amounted to EUR 1.2m during January. Moving on, SBITOP recorded a solid increase of 5.7% MoM and ended at 1,324.66 points. Meanwhile, SBITOP TR ended the month at 1,781.22 points, with the same 5.7% MoM increase.

Monthly equity turnover on LJSE (January 2022 – January 2024, EURm)

Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research

In terms of the most traded stocks, leading the way is Krka with a turnover of EUR 9.2m, representing 35.6% of the total equity turnover. Next up, there is NLB at 6.3m, or 24.5% of the total, Cinkarna Celje at EUR 3.9m, or 15%, and Petrol, at EUR 1.5m, or 5.9%. Finally, there is Pozavarovalnica Sava, at EUR 1.4m (or 5.6% of the total). This would also mean that the top 5 most traded stocks accounted for 86.6% of the total equity turnover, while the top 10 stocks accounted for as much as 98.6% of the total, which is in line with historical shares of total equity turnover in Slovenia.

Moving on to the performance of the SBITOP constituents during November, 7 out of 9 companies recorded an increase, while the remaining 2 recorded only slight negative returns. The biggest gain was recorded by Cinkarna Celje with a double-digit increase of 15.1%, followed by NLB at 9.4%. Cinkarna Celje’s share price grew on the back of dividend proposal amounting to EUR 2.77, which translates to a dividend yield of 13.3% compared to the share price before the announcement. To read more about the dividend proposal, click here. Further, to remind you, after the initial proposal by the company, Cinkarna received two counterproposals – read about it here. Telekom Slovenije is to follow at 6.6% gain, Luka Koper at 5.6% and closely by Krka at 5.5%. On the other hand, the only two constituents to report a slightly negative share price development were Sava Re and Equinox with 1.1% and 1% decline, respectively.

Performance of SBITOP constituents (January 2024, MoM, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

One United Properties Publishes Q4 2023 Trading Update

Yesterday, One United Properties shared its Q4 2023 trading update, providing some details on its key performance indicators for 2023. In this quick overview, we go through the main points.

By the end of 2023, One United Properties sold and pre-sold 953 apartments with a total surface area of 80.7k sqm, 1,584 parking spaces, and other unit types, for a total of EUR 274.9m. As a point of comparison, this represents 59% more sold and pre-sold apartments, 53% higher total surface area sold, and a total sum that is 62% higher than in 2022.

One notes that the total value also includes pre-sales to early clients, which are lower-margin sales that help finance land acquisition. These are units that are pre-sold to clients at developments where construction did not begin. The total value of these pre-sales in 2023 was EUR 31.6m, an increase of 75% YoY, and representing 11.4% of the total residential sales.

Moving on, in 2023 One finalized 1,430 residential units at One Verdi Park, One Floreasca Vista, One Timpuri Noi, and One Cotroceni Park. As of the end of 2023, 71% of the available apartments under development and which were delivered were sold out. As such, for the contracts concluded with customers at the end of 2023, One expects to receive EUR 295m in additional cash by 2025. Of this, EUR 150m in 2024, and EUR 145m in 2025.

Key residential developments status as of the end of 2023*

wdt_ID Development Status Delivery of 1st phase Units sold in 2023 Total units sold from project start Total units developed
1 One Lake District 1* In Development Q2 2025 430 522 786
2 One High District In Development Q4 2025 251 525 807
3 One Lake Club In Development Q4 2025 145 267 723
4 One Floreasca Towers In Development Q2 2025 55 126 208
5 One Cotroceni Park Finalized Q4 2023 23 873 898
6 One Mamaia Nord 2 In Development Q4 2024 12 41 86
7 One Mircea Eliade Finalized Q4 2020 12 244 244
8 Other Developments In Development n.a. 25 939 1200

Source: One United Properties, InterCapital Research

*According to One, One Lake District will develop a total of 1,967 units. However, only 786 units from the first phase of development are available for purchase. The delivery date for One Lake District refers to 1st phase only.

For the commercial side of the business, in 2023 One leased and pre-leased 34.2k sqm of office and retail space, an increase of 8% YoY. A breakdown of the commercial developments is available below.

Commercial lease status as of the end of 2023

wdt_ID Development Status Delivery / Acquisition GLA % Leased % Pre-leased % Tenants moved
1 One Tower Developed 2020 24,039 100% 0% 100%
2 One Cotroceni Park 1 Developed 2022 46,252 88% 0% 88%
3 Bucur Obor Acquired 2022 25,582 94% 0% 94%
4 One Victoriei Plaza Acquired 2022 12,000 100% 0% 100%
5 One Cotroceni Park 2 Developed 2023 34,456 75% 0% 55%
6 One Technology District In development 2026 22,289 0% 100% 0%

Source: One United Properties, InterCapital Research

Finally, in terms of the landbank, One had in ownership or under pre-SPA over 265k sqm of land locations for further development, with a total above-ground gross building rights (GBA) of over 865k. All of these land plots are currently in the planning phase. On these,  One estimates a possible construction of app. 6k apartments, services for communities, and 163.5k sqm of rental commercial buildings. Out of the commercial buildings, 117.5k sqm will host offices, and the remaining 46k sqm are located within buildings that will undergo restoration, including One Gallery, which One notes is the largest private investment in a protected building in Romania. The gross development value of the restoration portfolio currently under development by One United Properties is estimated at EUR 239m.