During 9M 2023, Atlantska Plovidba recorded revenue decline of 44% YoY, an EBITDA decrease of 13%, and a net income of EUR -2.7m (9M 2022: EUR 19.1m). Furthermore, in Q3 2023, revenue also declined by 44% YoY, EBITDA by 13%, while the net income amounted to EUR -1.6m (9M 2022: EUR 2.3m).
Last week, Atlantska Plovidba published its 9M 2023 results, and in this brief analysis, we’re bringing you the most important points. The uncertainty regarding the shipping industry has continued in 2023, driven by the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation which does not foster shipping expansion. This is due to elevated inflation rates across the world, higher costs of trade (due to most trade transactions being in dollars, and the value of the dollar increasing due to higher interest rates in the US), as well as the geopolitical uncertainty due to the war in Ukraine, and the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. In this environment, Atlantska Plovidba’s results also suffered.
Currently, Atlantska Plovidba has 10 ships in operation, 4 in Panamax, 4 in Supramax, and 2 in the Handy categories. 2 more ships are under construction, in the Kamsarmax category. During 9M 2023, Atlantska Plovidba transported a total of 3.8m tonnes of dry bulk cargo, a 13% reduction YoY. Of this, coal recorded a 25% reduction to 1.98m tonnes, iron ore 32% to 200k tonnes, while on the other hand, minor bulk cargo increased by 9% to 1.4m, while grain cargo recorded the largest relative increase, of 69% to 194.6k. Meanwhile, the average daily rate of transportation amounted to USD 11.7k, marking a 45% reduction YoY.
Because of these developments, in 9M 2023, Atlantska Plovidba recorded revenue of EUR 33m, a 44% decline YoY, while in Q3, it recorded revenue of EUR 10.4m, also a 44% decrease. This is a clear indication that the situation as of Q3 hasn’t improved, at least when the top line is concerned. With the reduction in overall transportation activity, Atlantska Plovidba’s operating expenses also decreased, by 23% to EUR 30.5m on a 9M basis, and by 45% YoY to EUR 9.9m on a Q3 basis.
Decreases were recorded both in material expenses and employee expenses, of 57% to EUR 5.7m, and 65% to EUR 2.4m, respectively, on a 9M basis. Furthermore, on a Q3 basis, material expenses declined by 68% YoY to EUR 3.5m, and 67% to EUR 2.3m, respectively. However, due to the larger absolute decrease in revenue as opposed to OPEX, EBITDA decreased by 56% YoY to EUR 13m during 9M, and 13% YoY to EUR 4.3m during Q3. This would also mean that the EBITDA margin declined by 11 p.p. to 39.6%, and 14.9 p.p. to 41.6% during 9M and Q3, respectively.
The net financial result did somewhat improve in both 9M and Q3, by 27% and 42%, respectively. However, it still remains negative at EUR -1.5m and EUR -3.3m, respectively, mostly due to lower financial income and still elevated financial expenses, which stem mostly from interest expenses. All taken together, this led to a net income of EUR -2.7m in 9M 2023 (9M 2022: EUR 19.1m), and EUR -1.6m in Q3 2023 (Q3 2022: EUR 2.3m). As such, the net income margin decreased significantly on both 9M and Q3 basis, to -8% and -15.6%, respectively.
Atlantska Plovidba key financials (9M 2023 vs. 9M 2022, EURm)
Source: Atlantska Plovidba, InterCapital Research
Atlantska Plovidba key financials (Q3 2023 vs. Q3 2022, EURm)
Source: Atlantska Plovidba, InterCapital Research
According to the latest release by the Slovenian Statistical Office, the CPI in October 2023 grew by 6.9% YoY (vs. 7.5% YoY the previous month), and 0.2% MoM.
With the end of October, many EU countries have released their CPI estimates for the month, including Slovenia (Croatia is publishing the same preliminary data today). In this article, we’ll review the changes in Slovenian CPI. According to the press release by the Slovenian Statistical Office, the CPI grew by 6.9% YoY, and 0.2% MoM. Breaking this down further, services on average grew by 8.1% YoY, followed by goods at 6.3%. In the goods category, non-durable goods recorded growth of 8.5%, semi-durable goods of 3.2%, and durable goods of 0.4%.
In terms of the impact on the annual inflation, 1.3 p.p. came from the 7.3% higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, 0.8 p.p. from 24.3% higher prices of electricity as a result of the elimination of the measure of reduced payment of contributions. Further, higher prices of recreation and culture, increasing by 7.1% contributed 0.7 p.p. The prices of goods and services in the health group grew by 11.4%, while Restaurants and hotels grew by 9.1% YoY in October. On the other hand, 14.1% cheaper liquid fuels and 2.7% cheaper purchase of vehicles, both eased the annual inflation by 0.2 p.p.
Moving on to the monthly change, higher prices of group clothing and footwear (+2.5% MoM) added 0.2 p.p. to the monthly inflation. Further, 0.1 p.p. to inflation was added in each of the following categories: fresh fruit, liquid fuels, diesel, pharmaceutical products and miscellaneous goods and services. However, on the flipside, lower prices of package holidays decreased the overall inflation by 0.2 p.p., while lower prices of heat energy, accommodation services and other prices each contributed to a 0.1 p.p. decrease in overall MoM inflation.
Slovenian CPI (January 2011 – October 2023, YoY, %)
Source: Slovenian Statistical Office, InterCapital Research
Taking a quick look at the harmonized index of consumer prices, its growth amounted to 6.6% YoY in October, while on the monthly level, it grew by 0.3% (the month before was 0.7%!). On average, service prices increased by 7.9%, and goods by 6%. In the goods category, non-durable goods prices increased by 8.3%, semi-durable goods prices by 3.4%, while durable goods prices increased slightly by 0.7%.
Finally, as a reminder, the Euro area flash estimate will be published by the ECB today, just like the Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the Croatian CPI estimate. So, today during the day you will be able to put inflation in the context of Euro area inflation. Looking at previous months, Slovenian inflation stood at a more elevated level.