According to the latest report on Croatian tourism released by the Croatian Tourism Board, in April 2024, the total number of tourist arrivals declined by 5% YoY, while the total number of tourist nights decreased by 7% YoY. Furthermore, as compared to April 2019, the total number of arrivals is 7% lower, while the total number of nights is 6% lower.

April 2024, while still not part of the main tourism season, does play a role in Croatian tourism, mostly due to the Easter holidays. However, it should be noted that Easter landed on 31 March this year, leading to part of the arrivals/nights being recorded then. As such, it isn’t surprising that there was a drop in the number of arrivals and nights this time around.

Looking at the numbers, the total tourist arrivals amounted to 1.08m, decreasing by 5% YoY. Of this, foreign tourist arrivals amounted to 852.4k, declining by 6% YoY, while domestic tourist arrivals amounted to 223.5k, decreasing by 1% YoY. On the other hand, total tourist nights amounted to 3.11m, decreasing by 7% YoY. Of this, foreign arrivals amounted to 2.6m, declining by 8% YoY, while domestic arrivals amounted to 511.9k, decreasing by 5% YoY. As compared to April 2019, the total number of arrivals is 7% lower, driven by 13% lower foreign arrivals, while domestic arrivals increased by 24%. On the flipside, total nights decreased by 6%, with a 9% decline in foreign nights, but a 13% increase in domestic nights.

Total tourist arrivals and nights in Croatia (January 2019 – April 2024)

Source: HTZ, InterCapital Research

Given these numbers, the average stay per person amounted to 2.89 nights, declining by 2.5% YoY, but increasing by 1% compared to the average stay in 2019. Meanwhile, looking at the tourist nights by accommodation, 91% of nights were registered in commercial accommodation, 5% were non-commercial, and 4% were registered in nautical accommodation. Inside the commercial accommodation, 53% of nights were recorded in hotels, 24% in private accommodation, 14% in camps, while 9% went to other types of accommodation.

In terms of the tourist nights by country of origin, 18% of the nights were domestic nights, 14% came from Germany, 13% from Slovenia, 8% from Austria, and 7% from Poland. At the same time, the best performing counties were Istra with 821.1k of nights recorded, followed by Splitsko-dalmatinska at 502.2k, Dubrovačko-neretvanska at 452.3k, Kvarner at 432.4k, and Zadarska, at 294.9k.

Taking all of this together, the numbers overall are stable, especially if we take the effect of Easter being in March this year. While this data cannot show us how the rest of the season will go, bookings at different tourist companies are solid for now, pointing towards another good season for tourism. Of course, what will really determine the success of the summer season is the prices, especially now that many other countries in the Mediterranean are offering competitive services to Croatia. In this year, this is distinctly true, as the inflationary pressures we have witnessed in the last 3 years have put a lot of pressure on tourist budgets, especially from main emissive markets for Croatia such as Germany.

According to the latest report by the Slovenian Securities Market Agency, the NAV of the Slovenian mutual funds amounted to EUR 5.28bn in April, recording a decrease of 2.7% MoM, but an increase of 25.7% YoY. This marks the 1st monthly decrease since October 2023.

By the end of April 2024, the Slovenian mutual funds recorded a total NAV of EUR 5.28bn, representing a decrease of 2.7% MoM, and an increase of 25.7% YoY. Due to this monthly decrease, the streak of monthly growth that lasted all the way from October 2023 has been broken, at least for this one month.

To understand what drove these changes, a closer look at the possible drivers, i.e. changes in the net contributions as well as the underlying value of the assets is required. Starting off with the net contributions first, in April they amounted to EUR 44.4m, representing a decrease of 12% MoM, but an increase of over 3x YoY. Also, if we look at the overall decrease on the MoM basis, it amounted to EUR 146.5m, meaning that without the net contributions into the funds, the “real” decrease would be app. EUR 190m. As such, it could be said that the decrease here came from the change in the value of assets, detailed below.

Meanwhile, net contributions on the TTM months ending in April amounted to EUR 442m, representing 41% of the total YoY increase in mutual funds NAV (EUR 1.08bn in absolute amount). Due to this, 59% of the growth came from the increase in the value of assets. Also noteworthy is the number of subscribers in April, which continued to grow, reaching 541.4k. This represents an increase of 0.5% MoM, and 4.9% YoY, demonstrating that the contributions came not only from existing subscribers but new ones as well.

Net contributions into the Slovenian mutual funds (January 2016 – April 2024, EURm)

Source: ATVP, InterCapital Research

Next up, we have the performance of the assets in these funds. On a monthly basis, the largest absolute decrease was recorded in the other assets category, which declined by EUR 83.6m, or 89%, followed by a decrease in shareholdings, which decreased by EUR 61.2m, or 1.5%. One other noteworthy decrease was recorded in cash holdings, which declined by EUR 14.4m, or 10.4% MoM. On the other hand, the only notable increase on the MoM basis was recorded by money market holdings, which grew by EUR 10.3m, or 7.4%. All other categories remained roughly the same.

Moving on to the YoY basis, a different story, reflecting the strong growth that was recorded during the period is present. The largest absolute increase came from shareholdings, which grew by over EUR 1bn, or 35.9% YoY, followed by an increase in the money market holdings, which grew by EUR 79m, or over 110%, as well as bond holdings, which increased by EUR 69m, or 10%. On the flip side, investment funds and cash holdings recorded the largest decreases, at EUR 75m and EUR 51m, respectively, or in relative terms, at 26.5%, and 29.4%, respectively.

Total assets of Slovenian mutual funds (June 2007 – April 2024, EURm)

Source: ATVP, InterCapital Research

In terms of the current asset structure of the funds, shares make up the vast majority at 76% of the total, increasing by 0.92 p.p. MoM, and 5.71 p.p. YoY. Following them there are bonds at 14.5%, growing by 0.41 p.p. MoM, but declining by 2.06 p.p. YoY, as well as money market, deposit & cash holdings at 5.4%, representing an increase of 0.07 p.p. MoM, but a decrease of 0.75 p.p. YoY. Finally, investment funds represented 3.9% of the total, growing by 0.13 p.p. MoM, but decreasing by 2.79 p.p. YoY.

Due to their stake in the total assets, it is also prudent to look at the shares a little closer. The majority of the shareholdings of Slovenian mutual funds are made up of foreign issuers’ shares, at 98.4% of the total, or EUR 3.95bn. These have recorded a decrease of 1.5% MoM, but an increase of 36.6% YoY. On the other hand, domestic issuers’ shareholdings amounted to EUR 64.6m, a decrease of 1.2% MoM, and an increase of 2.6% YoY. It can be concluded that most of subscribers inflow went into the foreign equity funds.

Equity holdings of Slovenian UCITS funds (October 2007 – April 2024, EURm)

Source: ATVP, InterCapital Research

Taking all of this into account, it could be summarized that the largest driver of both the MoM decrease, and YoY increase came fr

om the changes in the value of foreign issuers’ shares held by the Slovenian mutual funds, in line with the market trends recorded during April.