Yesterday, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics released the latest flash estimate for the Croatian GDP growth in Q3 2023. In the report, we can see that the Croatian GDP grew by 2.8% YoY in Q3 and amounted to EUR 22.1bn. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP in real terms increased by 0.3% QoQ, and 3% YoY.

The Croatian Bureau of Statistics has released the first flash estimate for the Croatian GDP growth in Q3 2023. According to the estimate, the Croatian GDP grew by 2.8% YoY and amounted to EUR 22.1bn. At the same time, the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP in real terms grew by 0.3% QoQ, and 3% YoY. Furthermore, according to the European Commission’s latest estimates, Croatia’s GDP should grow at 2.4% YoY in 2023, meaning that Q4 growth should amount to 2.5% YoY if that level is to be reached.

Croatian GDP* (2007 – Q4 2023**, %, YoY)

Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research

*Quarterly Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted real growth rates

**Q4 2023 and 2023 are based on estimates

In terms of the categories of GDP, final consumption expenditure grew by 2.7% YoY. Of this, households recorded growth of 3% YoY and amounted to EUR 8.6bn, General government grew by 2.1%, and amounted to EUR 2.9bn, while Non-Profit Institutions Serving Households (NPISH) recorded a more noteworthy decline of 6.1% YoY, and amounted to EUR 188m. The growth from households is to be expected, both due to higher spending, but also due to the tourists which also contributed to consumption growth. Meanwhile, Gross fixed capital formation grew by 6.1% YoY and amounted to EUR 2.7bn, supported by various EU funds, including the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and REPowerEU. In fact, Croatia is one of the largest receivers of funds in the EU, which certainly is supportive of further investment development.

In terms of exports and imports, exports amounted to EUR 12.4bn, decreasing by 8.5% YoY, whereas exports of goods declined by 20.4%, and amounted to EUR 4bn, while exports of services recorded a slight 0.5% decline, and amounted to EUR 8.3bn. On the other hand, import of goods and services declined by 12.1% YoY and amounted to EUR 8.5bn. Of this, imports of goods declined by 14.8% and amounted to EUR 7bn, while imports of services increased by 5.9%, and amounted to EUR 1.5bn. For both exports and imports of goods, a decline is expected. The EU member countries are the largest trading partners for Croatia, and as most of them are under pressure from the current macroeconomic situation, a decline in trade is expected.

Meanwhile, taking a look at the first 3 quarters of 2023, total GDP amounted to EUR 44.6bn, an increase of 2.4% YoY, while on a trailing 12-month basis, it amounted to EUR 58.8bn, an increase of 2.6% YoY. Overall, Q3 was supported by growth in household spending, which despite inflationary pressures remained high. Furthermore, for Croatia, the largest export service is for sure tourism. In 2023, Croatian tourism finally managed to reach the level of 2019 in terms of tourist arrivals and overnight stays. Meanwhile, revenue growth was on average, over 30% compared to 2019. As such, the slight decrease in service exports invariably came from other categories inside the export services, which was offset by the aforementioned tourism growth.

Lastly, as compared to what the Eurostat forecasted 2 weeks ago, Croatia’s GDP growth in Q3 was expected at 2.3% YoY, meaning that the country was able to outperform on this metric. Furthermore, due to the economic situation, Croatia’s growth in Q3 could end up being one of the highest in the EU, which is certainly a positive development.

By the end of October 2023, the Slovenian insurance sector noted total GWPs of EUR 2.6bn, which is an increase of 10% YoY. In terms of Non-life insurance, it grew by 11.5%, while the Life insurance segment increased by 6.2% YoY.

Recently, the Slovenian Insurance Association published the latest reports on the developments recorded by the Slovenian insurance market, showing us the cumulative yearly development by the end of October 2023. According to the report, the total GWPs amounted to EUR 2.6bn by the end of October, representing an increase of 10% (or EUR 237m) YoY, and 10.5% (or EUR 246m) MoM. In terms of the segments, Non-life insurance recorded GWPs of EUR 1.92bn, which is an increase of 11.5% (or EUR 197m) YoY, and 10.3% (or EUR 178.6m) MoM. On the flip side, the Life insurance recorded GWPs of EUR 682.6m, growing by 6.2% (or EUR 39.7m) YoY, and 11% (or EUR 67.7m) MoM.

As such, growth in the Slovenian insurance market continues across both the Non-life and Life insurance segments. Looking at the segments more closely, in the Non-life insurance segment, on a YoY basis, the largest absolute increase was recorded by Land motor vehicles insurance, which grew by EUR 67.5m, or 21% YoY. Following it, there is Motor vehicle liability insurance, which increased by EUR 57m, or 22.9% YoY, and Fire and natural forces insurance, which increased by EUR 18m, or 15%. 3 other categories recorded YoY GWP growth of over EUR 10m, that is ship insurance, at EUR 15.9m, or 114% YoY, Assistance insurance, at EUR 14.9m, or 33.8%, and Health insurance, at EUR 13.4m, or 2.4% YoY.

Moving on to the MoM data, the largest increase here was recorded by Health insurance, which grew by EUR 57.3m, or 11.1%. Following it there is Land motor vehicles insurance, at EUR 36.8m, or 10.5%, Motor vehicle liability insurance, at EUR 29.6m, or 11.7%, as well as Other damage to property insurance and Fire and natural forces insurance, which grew by EUR 16.1m and EUR 11.3m, or 6.8% and 5.3%, respectively.

In both of these time period comparisons, we can see that insurance policies related to vehicles still remain the main focus of Slovenians. However, the effects of the natural disasters and flooding that Slovenia experienced during July and August also caused an uptick in property as well as fire and natural forces insurance, meaning that the effects of these events can finally be seen. Turning our attention to the Life insurance segment, on a YoY basis, Life assurance recorded the largest increase, growing by EUR 39.7m, or 6.2%, followed by Unit-linked life insurance at EUR 15.6m, or 6.4%. Meanwhile, on a MoM basis,  the largest increase was recorded by Unit-linked life insurance, which grew by EUR 26.5m, or 11.2%, closely followed by Life assurance, which grew by EUR 25.3m, or 10.7% MoM.

Changes recorded by the Slovenian insurance sector in October 2023 (absolute amount, EUR ‘000, YoY)

Source: Slovenian Insurance Association, InterCapital Research

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