In May 2024 Slovenian blue chips recorded strong returns, with SBITOP further increasing 5.2% during the month. The total equity turnover on the LJSE increased 39.9% YoY and 12.4% MoM in May. The five most traded stocks were NLB, Krka, Sava Re, Triglav & Petrol, representing 88.8% of the total equity turnover on the whole stock exchange.

Ljubljana Stock Exchange, LJSE, published its monthly trading activity report, for May 2024. According to the report, the total equity turnover on LJSE amounted to EUR 43m, representing a further 12.4% MoM increase and strong 39.9% YoY growth. In terms of the average daily turnover, it amounted to EUR 1.9m during May. Moving on, SBITOP recorded a further increase of 5.2% YoY, ending at 1,500.01 points

Monthly equity turnover on LJSE (January 2022 – May 2024, EURm)

Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research

In terms of the most traded stocks, leading the way is NLB with a turnover of EUR 17.9m, representing as much as 41.6% of the total equity turnover during May. Next up, there is Krka at 12.1m, or 28.2% of the total, Sava Re at EUR 3.3m, or 7.7%, and Zavarovalnica Triglav, at EUR 2.5m, or 5.9%. Finally, there are Telekom Slovenije and Petrol, both at EUR 2.3m (or 5.4% of the total). This would also mean that the top 5 most traded stocks accounted for 88.8% of the total equity turnover during the month, while the top 10 stocks accounted for as much as 99.4% of the total, which is in line with historical shares of total equity turnover in Slovenia. Finally, during the month, block transactions accounted for c. 11% of total equity turnover, which is also in line with historical development on LJSE.

Performance of SBITOP constituents (May, MoM, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Sentiment on Ljubljana Stock Exchange during May remained strongly positive with NLB noting a double-digit growth of 13%. Sava Re followed with 9.3% increase, while Triglav and Krka increased by 4.2% and 3.2%, respectively. On the flip side, the only constituent to note a decrease in share price is Cinkarna Celje with a slightly 0.9% decline. However, we note that the sentiment during May represents a continuation of a “green” development on the stock exchange. Since the start of the year, SBITOP increased by as much as 24.4%, mainly driven by NLB and Krka – the two biggest constituents. NLB increased by a sharp 40.6%, while Krka, too, noted a strong double-digit growth of 23.6%. We note that NLB, besides results exceeding analyst expectations, is driven by the recent offer by NLB for the takeover of Addiko, which you can read in more detail here. Further, Petrol and Telekom Slovenije increased by 21.9% and 17.4% on a YTD basis, respectively. Overall, May represents another strong month for LJSE trading activity pouring liquidity into the Slovenian equity, further amplifying strong YTD returns on LJSE.

Performance of SBITOP constituents (2024 YTD, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

According to the latest release by the Romanian National Institute of Statistics, the country’s CPI decreased 0.1% MoM, and increased 5.1% YoY in May 2024.

Last week, the Romanian National Institute of Statistics released the CPI read for Romania, for May 2024. According to the release, Romanian CPI decreased by 0.1% MoM and increased by 5.1% YoY. Looking at the growth drivers, on an MoM basis, services increased by 0.4%, while food and non-food goods had a decrease of 0.02% and 0.4%, respectively. In contrast, services experienced the biggest growth of 9.3% YoY, while food goods prices grew by 1.2%, and non-food goods prices by 6.4%.

Romanian CPI (January 2020 – May 2024, %)

Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research

Furthermore, the Romanian National Institute of Statistics reported The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) – an indicator for determining inflation across the EU. According to this index, inflation in May compared to one in April increased by 0.03%, while the YoY inflation rate grew by 5.8%.

Comparison of Romanian HICP with other European countries (May 2024, YoY, %)

Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research

Compared to Eurostat’s euro area annual inflation expectations released at the end of May, Romania had the highest HICP, followed by Belgium at 4.9%, and Croatia at 4.3%. In line with Eurostat’s expectations, services were the main driver of inflation growth with the forecast of 4.1% YoY in the euro area. Moreover, the top drivers of such a YoY CPI growth within Romanian services were the following sectors: Water supply, sewage collection, refuse collection (15.5%), Medical care (12.5%), Restaurants, cafés, canteens (11.0%).

Meanwhile, on a MoM basis, Malta recorded the largest increase in HICP, at 1.6%, followed by Cyprus at 1.2%, Portugal at 1.1%, as well as Ireland and Latvia, both at 0.5%, respectively. Romania was actually one of the best performers on this metric, ranking just above Estonia, Austria, and Finland, which did not record a MoM HICP change, as well as Greece, which actually recorded a slight deflation of 0.3% on a MoM basis.

Comparison of Romanian HICP with other European countries (May 2024, MoM, %)

Source: Eurostat, Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research

In summary, Romanian inflation is above many of the European countries, which means that it is unlikely that the Romanian Central Bank will reduce the deposit interest rates until the inflation comes down further. While higher inflation is expected in a country with its own currency, especially in periods of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, May’s CPI print shows there are still ways to go before inflation is fully under control.

Here you can find the dates for the upcoming events of the regional companies.

Due to the nature of these events, they are subject to change (might be postponed or canceled).