This morning, the company proposed no dividend payment. The proposal is subject to approval on GSM, which is to be held on 14 June 2023.

Cinkarna proposes no dividend payment as the Company is a beneficiary of aid with the goal to mitigate the effects of the energy crisis (ZPGOPEK). According to the aid, the company that claimed aid for the year 2023 must notify the authority no later than two months after the payment of profits, purchase of own shares, payments or bonuses, etc. In this case, the company must repay the funds received, which would be a decision of the authority.

Consequently, the loss of the aid would mean greater material damage to Cinkarna (aid is currently projected at EUR 5 – 7m). After weighing everyone’s interests, the Management Board and the Supervisory Board came to the conclusion that the company’s interests prevailed in this case. The loss of those funds would have a negative material impact on the company and therefore shareholders. Because of this, the MB and SB of the company emphasized that is not necessary to distribute the balance sheet profit to the shareholders. However, we note that last year Management proposed a dividend payment of EUR 21 per share, but the Company received a counterproposal of EUR 31.89 per share from one of its shareholders, which was later approved.

Dividend per Share (EUR) and Dividend Yield (%) (2012 – 2023)

Source: LJSE, InterCapital Research

In Q4 2022, revenue from internet access services amounted to EUR 181.1m, an increase of 5% YoY.

HAKOM has published its ICT market data for Q4 2022 in Croatia. According to the report, total revenue from fixed public communication networks amounted to EUR 31.7, noting a decrease of 9.4% YoY. Of that, revenue from retail amounted to EUR 29.3m, decreasing by 6.7% YoY, while wholesale revenue amounted to EUR 2.4m, a decrease of app. 33% YoY. Meanwhile, the total number of subscribers amounted to 1.2m, a decrease of 2.6% YoY. Of that, HT currently holds the largest market share of 44.8%, maintaining its leadership position with a slight 0.7 p.p. lower market share on a YoY basis in Q4, while other participants in the market hold the remaining 55.2%.

Total revenue from telephone services in mobile public communications in Q3 2022 grew to EUR 139.7m, an increase of 8% YoY. Such an increase came both on the back of increases in retail revenue, which increased by 7% and amounted to EUR 117.4m, and wholesale revenue, which increased by 13.3% and amounted to EUR 22.3m. In the retail segment, revenue from residential users, which constitutes 75% of the retail revenue, increased by 6.4% and amounted to EUR 87.9m. At the same time, revenue from business users increased 9% YoY and amounted to EUR 29.6m. Meanwhile, the total number of active mobile subscribers amounted to 4,480,469, a slight increase of 1.8% YoY.

Looking at the market share by subscribers, we can see that the situation remains mostly unchanged for the last couple of quarters, with HT maintaining the highest market share at 44.8% (a slight decrease from Q3), followed by A1, which currently holds a 35.4% market share. Lastly, we have Telemach, which holds 19.9% of the current mobile market share, an increase of 0.7 p.p. YoY, and a flat market share compared to the previous quarter.

Mobile subscribers market share (Q4 2019 – Q4 2022, %)

Source: HAKOM, InterCapital Research

Total revenue from internet access services amounted to EUR 181.1m, an increase of 4.7% YoY. The increase came solely on the back of mobile internet revenue increase, which increased by 9.4% and amounted to EUR 122.3m. Fixed internet revenue remained mostly flat, increasing c. 1%. The total number of internet subscriptions also increased by 4% and amounted to 5,992,716.

Total revenue from television services increased by 4.3% to EUR 30m, with the total number of pay-TV subscribers amounting to 873k, representing a flat YoY development. IPTV users were up by 1.9% and amounted to 458k, while at the same time, satellite TV users decreased by -5.9% and amounted to 132k.

Further, during the previous month, HAKOM public auction for the spectrum allocation, issued for 15 years, ended and you can read more about it here.

So, with all this data in mind, how did the two largest telecom companies in Croatia, Hrvatski Telekom and A1 perform during Q4 2022?

Hrvatski Telekom

The trends seen in the whole market are also quite reflective of the largest telecom company in Croatia. During the last quarter of 2022, HT recorded revenues of EUR 248.9m, an increase of 0.2% QoQ. Compared to Q3 2022, HT’s EBITDA margin decreased, translating also in a lower profit margin by 60bps. Overall, a decrease in profitability occurred mainly due to higher material costs. Organic adjusted EBITDA after leases decreased by 1% YoY on a FY level, while organic net profit after minorities increased by 6.6% YoY.

A1

Meanwhile,

the 2nd largest telecom company in the Croatian market, A1, recorded revenue growth of 5.7% in Q4 on the back of solid mobile and mixed-line revenue growth, combined with higher equipment revenues. Overall, growth in revenues grew just enough to cover A1’s cost increase, resulting in a flat YoY EBITDA development in Q4. It should be noted that A1 Hrvatska is a part of A1 Telekom Austria, which besides these two countries has several other countries as a part of the Group.