By the end of November 2023, the total equity turnover on ZSE grew by 43% MoM, and 31% YoY. At the same time, the main index on the exchange, CROBEX, increased by 2.94% MoM and amounted to 2,434.93 points.

During November 2023, the equity turnover on the Zagreb Stock Exchange, ZSE, picked up pace significantly, both on an MoM and YoY basis. As such, during the month, the total equity turnover amounted to EUR 32.8m, increasing by 43% MoM, and 31% YoY. Furthermore, equity block turnover also increased on a MoM basis, by 92%, but it decreased on a YoY basis, by 29%, and amounted to EUR 7.25m. Excluding the block trades, the total equity turnover during November amounted to EUR 25.6m, an increase of 33% MoM, and 72% YoY. As such, the average daily turnover also picked up, amounting to EUR 1.28m during the month.

Monthly equity turnover on ZSE (January 2022 – November 2023)

Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research

In terms of the most traded stocks, Podravka leads the way at EUR 4.98m, or 15% of the total equity turnover. Following them there is Span at EUR 2.97m, or 9%, Valamar Riviera, at EUR 2.3m, or 7%, Zagrebačka banka, at EUR 1.89m, or 5.8%, and Hrvatski Telekom, at EUR 1.82m, or 5.6%. Together, the top 5 most traded stocks made up 43% of the total equity turnover during November, while the top 10 most traded stocks made up 58%. This is in sharp contrast to the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, where trading is concentrated to a high degree in the first 5, and especially the first 10 most traded stocks. Of course, given the difference in the number of listed companies on ZSE/LJSE, this is to be expected.

Turning our attention to the performance of the Croatian blue chips, during November, the largest increase was recorded by Končar’s subsidiary, Končar D&ST (pref.), with an increase of 19% MoM. Following them there is Span, at 12%, Podravka at 11%, ZABA at 6%, and Atlantic Grupa, at 5%. On the other hand, Ericsson NT recorded a decline of 4%, and Arena Hospitality Group a decrease of 2%. In contrast, AD Plastik and Končar recorded no changes, while Adris (pref.) as well as HT recorded less than a 1% increase MoM.

Performance of select Croatian companies (November 2023, MoM, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

Moving on to the YTD performance, out of the 14 observed stocks, 12 recorded increases. Leading the way once again is Končar D&ST (pref.), which grew by a significant 168% YTD, followed by Podravka at 77%, HPB at 69%, Končar at 62%, ZABA at 57%, and Span, at 39%. On the flip side, Ericsson NT recorded a 14% decrease, while Arena’s share price decreased by 4%.

Performance of selected Croatian companies (YTD ending at the end of November 2023, %)

Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research

In November 2023, the Croatian industrial producer prices on the domestic market increased by 0.1% MoM and declined by 1.4% YoY.

The latest report on the developments recorded by the Croatian industrial producer prices has been released by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, DZS, for November 2023. According to the report, the industrial producer prices on the domestic market grew by 0.1% MoM but declined by 1.4% YoY in November 2023.

Industrial producer prices growth YoY (January 2021 – November 2023, %)

Source: DZS, InterCapital Research

If we were to look at the price development excl. Energy, the industrial producer prices decreased by 0.2% MoM, while having increased by 1.9% YoY. Breaking this growth down to its components, on a MoM basis, producer prices grew in Energy only, by 0.9%. On the other hand, Capital goods recorded a 0.6% decrease, Non-durable consumer goods a 0.3% decline, and Intermediate goods a 0.1% decrease, while prices in Durable consumer goods remained stable.

Furthermore, on a YoY basis, producer prices grew in Non-durable consumer goods by 4.5%, in Durable consumer goods by 2.8%, while they decreased in Energy by 7.6%, in Capital goods by 1.9%, and in Intermediate goods by 0.4%. Meanwhile, looking at the NKD 2007 sections and divisions, on the domestic market, prices in Mining and Quarrying grew by 8.3% MoM, and 4.4% YoY. This was primarily driven by higher prices of extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas, which increased by 15.8% MoM and 2.3% YoY. Meanwhile, in Manufacturing, prices decreased by 1% both on a MoM and YoY basis.

As such, we can see that there has been a slowdown in the price growth for industrial producers, which is a signal that could indicate that consumer prices might stabilize as well. However, the industry is a lot more sensitive to price fluctuations, for example, energy expenses increasing. As such, it would take a longer period to gauge if the price growth has stopped, or if this is just a one-off event. Given that last month, the industrial prices decreased by 1.1% MoM and 0.5% YoY, it could be said that this is the beginning of a trend. However, only time will tell. Finally, taking a look at the industrial producer prices’ development since 2015, in November 2023 they increased by 46% compared to that period. Excluding Energy price growth, the increase amounted to 17.2%. Breaking this down further, prices in Intermediate goods increased by 19.8%, in Energy by 128%, in Capital goods by 6.9%, in Durable consumer goods by 18.1%, and in Non-durable consumer goods by 19.4%.

Total industrial producer prices growth by categories compared to 2015 (November 2032, 2015=0, %)

Source: DZS, InterCapital Research

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