Recently, the Slovenian Government has adopted new regulations on the pricing of petroleum products in Slovenia, which went into effect on 18 June 2025. The new regulation also limits fuel prices at motorway service stations, meaning that prices will now be the same across the whole of Slovenia. The move was unexpected by the distributors and affects the largest one, Petrol Group, which is expected to take a EUR 30m hit on the operating profit in 2025, as compared to what it planned before the announcement. In this article, we bring you an overview of the whole situation.
There has been a lot of speculation in the media space about how the new regulation on fuel/petroleum products will end up in Slovenia in the last couple of months. While initially there were some indications that the Government would further reduce the margins on petroleum products (by 2 euro cents), and on biofuel (by another 2 euro cents), this has in the end not proven to be the case. Accordingly, the regulation on the margins remains the same as it was before.
Margins on petroleum products (June 2025 regulation, numbers remain the same as the previous regulation, EUR/l)
Source: Slovenian Government, InterCapital Research
The major change in the new regulation is that these margins are going to be uniform now across the entire country, including on the motorways, which were previously excluded from the capped margins. Furthermore, the Government has also eliminated refunds that distributors previously received to offset the cost of legally required biofuel blending. This move effectively lowers net margins by app. EUR 0.03/l for petrol, and EUR 0.05/l for diesel, despite nominal cap levels staying the same.
The new regulations are in place for the next 12 months. There has been a lot of pushback from the Chamber of Commerce, but also from major retailers like Petrol, who argued the following:
- The new terms are unlawful under price control laws
- These regulations are unsustainable in the long term
- They lack proper market impact analysis, and
- They could force station closures and curb investments in green energy
Petrol, as the biggest distributor in Slovenia (318 service stations, representing app. 56-58% of the national retail market for petroleum products) has raised many concerns regarding this new regulation. Besides what was already mentioned above, Petrol argues that the Slovenian sales margin on petroleum products has remained the lowest in Europe for a while now, and they were further reduced as it now affects motorway service stations.
Petrol said that these new regulatory changes in Slovenia will have a negative effect on the Group’s planned operating profit for 2025, reducing it by up to EUR 30m as compared to what was planned in 2025.
Petrol Group EBITDA impact (2025 estimates after new regulation, 2025 plan, 2024 actuals, EURm)
Source: Petrol Group, InterCapital Research
Petrol Group planned an EBITDA of app. EUR 339m in 2025, an 8% increase YoY compared to 2024, but with this new reduction, if the full effect is passed through the financials, EBITDA could end up at EUR 309m, representing a 2% decrease YoY, and a 9% decrease compared to what was planned in 2025.
The Group further noted that “In this challenging period, we will be forced to adjust our business activities by taking additional measures in order to mitigate the negative effects of price regulation, all the while ensuring that the Petrol Group maintains its financial stability, adequate liquidity, and capital strength.”
It also noted that, thus far, in the challenging economic & energy environment, affected primarily by the massive energy commodity increasing following the start of the war in Ukraine, the Group has managed to mitigate many of the risks responsibly and professionally. Going further, it will continue to do so, while also striving for constructive dialogue with the decision-makers to find adequate solutions.
Petrol Group, SBITOP price performance (2020 – 2025 YTD, %)
Source: Bloomberg, InterCapital Research
Next up, while this part is unconfirmed, there has also been media speculation that these new regulations are politically motivated. According to Finance.si, the Government, and especially the PM expected certain supporters to be named in the Supervisory Board of Petrol (link, in Slovenian only). While the list initially was supportive of the Government (published in January), by mid-March, the situation changed, with non-state representatives now outweighing the state representatives in the SB.
Furthermore, as can be seen in the resolutions of the GSM published on 28 May 2025, several changes were proposed (and not adopted) to Petrol’s Articles of Association.
Firstly: A proposal was made to shift more control to the Supervisory Board, in particular on this: previously, the President of the MB proposed other members, the SB confirms the proposal, with no timeline or consequences if no confirmation occurs; the proposal included several changes, including a 30-day deadline for the confirmation, and if the SB doesn’t approve the proposal in time, it gains the independent right to both propose and appoint board members directly, which effectively, shifts greater control to the SB in case of inaction or disagreement.
Secondly, thus far, the President has always been involved in external representation, with only the President + one member of the MB jointly representing the Company. The changes proposed that the President + 1 member, or 2 members, excluding the President, could represent the Company.
While several other resolutions were not adopted (the full resolutions can be found here), the non-approval of the resolutions listed above would give credence to the media speculation, which if passed, would mean that the SB would have more control over the Company, and if it’s stacked with government representatives, then indirectly and directly, the government would have more control over the Company.