Every year, the same headlines resurface – tourist numbers are down, prices are too high, Croatia is losing competitiveness. Yet every year, the numbers prove them wrong. What happened in May was not a decline we should be concerned about, but rather the result of this year’s holiday calendar. The same pattern played out last month, and the month before that. Context matters, and Croatian tourism is evolving, not faltering.
In May, a total of 1.58 million foreign tourist arrivals were recorded, representing an 8% YoY decline, while foreign tourist nights reached 5.76 million, a drop of 17% YoY. On the other hand, domestic tourist arrivals totaled 342k, marking a 17% YoY increase, while domestic tourist nights amounted to 850k, up 19% YoY. As a result, total tourist arrivals amounted to 1.92 million, a 5% YoY decrease, while total tourist nights reached 6.61 million, down 13% YoY. This translates to an average stay per person of 3.44 days, a 9.3% YoY decline. Moreover, YTD arrivals reached 4.18 million, staying relatively flat, while YTD nights totaled 13 million, reflecting a 6% decline compared to the same period last year.
Total tourist arrivals and nights in Croatia (January 2019 – May 2025)
Source: HTZ, InterCapital Research
At first glance, this might seem like a pessimistic foreshadowing of the peak season, as the media tends to proclaim every year, but the reality is somewhat different. Much like in March and April, the holiday calendar has a significant impact on tourist dynamics. This year, Pentecost holidays fall in June, rather than in May. As was the case last year. During this period, German schools are on break, which traditionally translates to a surge in German tourist arrivals.
This shift is reflected in the fact that German tourist arrivals and nights dropped 40-50% YoY in May. Similarly, arrivals and nights were also down in March compared to the previous year due to the late Easter, but in April, both YTD tourist arrivals and nights were up 4% YoY. Therefore, we can reasonably expect that in July, these numbers will normalize and likely exceed last year’s levels.
However, counting tourists alone is not the sole metric by which we should evaluate the tourism (pre)season. We constantly complain over the high proportion of private accommodation and the unsustainable volume of tourist – and yet, when the trend begins to shift in the desired direction, it is framed as a major crisis. It is not.
Our tourism sector is already undergoing a gradual transition toward attracting more affluent clientele, offering them higher-value experiences. This naturally leads to a plateau or even moderation in the number of tourists (which is anticipated and desirable in the context of sustainability) and higher average prices.
Some voices still yearn for Croatia to be a cheap mass-market destination, comparing it to Albania, Montenegro, or Turkey, forgetting that mass tourism is and should remain a transitional phase. More likely, these people do not bother to analyze the data in depth and instead push sensationalist narratives to stir public frustration over the price of ice cream.
Another important consideration is the breakdown of tourist nights by type of accommodation. In May hotels accounted for 39% of total accommodation (up from 34% in May 2024). Private accommodation represented 23% (down from 25%), while camps made up 19% (down from 23%). This is a positive trend, if one considers hotel nights more favorable for the long-term sustainability of Croatian tourism compared to an excessive share of private accommodation. However, this shift must also be contextualized within the influence of the holiday calendar – just as overall arrivals and nights are.
To sum up, with new investments in Croatian tourism, average prices are expected to continue rising (as they should), the growth rate of tourist arrivals should slow or stabilize (especially during the summer months), and Croatia should continue moving toward its goal of becoming an all-year-round tourist destination. Thus, YoY or MoM declines taken out of context have little to do with any real decline in Croatian tourism, excessive prices, or loss of competitiveness – contrary to the tired mainstream narratives that resurface year after year. At the end of the day, those operators who raise prices without proportionately raising the quality of service will not prosper. Simple as that.