In today’s quick overview, we’re bringing you the Romanian inflation, up until September 2025, and Romanian wages, up until August 2025, to gauge how the economy of the country is developing. In general, the CPI amounted to 9.9% YoY in September (same as August), while the average net earnings amounted to EUR 939, declining by 4% MoM, and 9% YoY in real terms.
The Romanian economy has been developing more slowly in the last couple of years, under the influence of high inflation, interest rates, as well as fiscal uncertainty, prompting the Government to issue many reforms in an attempt to curb its fiscal deficits.
Looking at some of the primary issues currently facing the country, we looked at two indicators – inflation (YoY), and net wages, both showing how well the economy and the labor force are developing.
According to the latest CPI print, the Romanian inflation remains one of the highest in all of Europe, under the influence of still high prices across many segments, but also the fact that the country is using its own currency, which while positive from the fiscal management side, does tend to increase inflation, as goods and services inflation is not only imported but also impacted by the FX fluctuations.
As such, the inflation amounted to 9.9% YoY in both September and August, accelerating from mid-single-digit levels present for most of 2025.
Romanian CPI (February 2019 – September 2025, %, YoY)
Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research
With this still strong inflation growth, the Government has been implementing many things to try to curb its growth, but due to its stickiness across the sectors of the economy, they have not been able to curb its high levels. As such, the high interest rates also remain within the country, with the Central Bank’s reference rate standing at 6.5% for a long time now, in an effort to lower said inflation. However, due to the structure of inflation, the Central Bank’s efforts have not borne any fruit (yet), but have curbed loan growth (at least its upside potential), which, downstream, also leads to lower levels of financing available and higher financing costs, slowing down the economy.
Strong inflation has also had a negative effect on real wage growth, with net wages amounting to EUR 939 in August 2025, declining by 3.9% MoM, and 9% YoY. In other words, the country is facing a lot of pressure on a lot of fronts, with a low unemployment rate, high inflation, and declining wages – a recipe for economic slowdown.
Romanian net wages (January 2020 – August 2025, RON)
Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research
In other words, the country is facing a lot of difficulties at the moment, and the new Government, while making a lot of promises, has not that much room to maneuver and improve the economic situation without radical changes. Some changes were already announced, with several new taxes introduced. However, taxes are never the best way to handle deficit issues, as they take away capital from individuals and companies, and as we all know, the Government is never the best capital allocator.
A lot of work still has to be done to improve the country’s situation, and it remains to be seen if the Government will be able to execute properly or fall short.