In January 2023, CROBEX experienced a strong increase of 6.6% MoM, ending the month at 2,110.79 points.
In January, we have seen one of the faster recoveries of CROBEX, when it increased by 6.6%, above indices such as S&P500. The total equity turnover on the exchange, however, is telling its own story. In January 2023, it amounted to a total of EUR 16.7m, which is a decrease of 63% YoY, and 21.8% MoM. If we excluded blocks, then the equity turnover would amount to EUR 14.2m, a decrease of 44% MoM, and 6% YoY. This would mean that during the month, the block turnover accounted for 15% of the total equity turnover. In total, there were 3 block trades during the month, Imperial Riviera at EUR 1.58m, Adris pref. at EUR 655.7k, and Zagrebačka banka, at EUR 270k. Furthermore, this would also imply an average daily turnover (excl. blocks) of EUR 675.9k.
Turning our attention to the top 10 most traded stocks, in total, they recorded a turnover of EUR 9.57m, accounting for 67% of the equity turnover (excl. blocks) during the month. The highest turnover was recorded by HT, at EUR 1.52m, or 11% of the total, followed by Podravka, at EUR 1.45m, or 10% of the total, Valamar Riviera, at EUR 1.28m, or 9% of the total, and Zagrebačka banka and SPAN, both at EUR 1m of turnover, or 7% of the total, respectively. This would also mean that the top 5 most traded stocks accounted for 44% of the total turnover.
Looking at the largest index on ZSE, CROBEX, we note that it recorded an increase of 6.6% during the month, and ended at 2,110.79 points. CROBEX10 also experienced a large increase, growing by 6.83% MoM, and ending it at 1,235.09 points.
Performance of CROBEX constituents in January 2023 (MoM, %)
Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research
In the CROBEX itself, the largest increases were recorded by AD Plastik, which grew by 23.8%, followed by SPAN, at 16.11%, ZABA, at 13.5%, Podravka, at 12.7%, and Viktor Lenac, at 11.63%. The increase recorded by both of the indices, however, was quite surprising as it was mostly driven by the somewhat more positive sentiment on the overall equity markets. This sentiment itself was driven by warmer-than-expected winter, inflation stabilization, as well as the general macroeconomic outlook being less bleak than it seemed a couple of months ago. Coming back to the CROBEX however, due to the weights that stocks have in the index, the real drivers of the growth are somewhat different than the top companies by individual performance.
Impact of the CROBEX constituents on the CROBEX’s price movement in January 2023 (% of the total)
Source: ZSE, InterCapital Research
As noted, the index recorded a growth of 6.6% MoM in January. The largest contribution came from Podravka, which increased by 12.7% during the month, and due to its weight in the index, contributed 1.5% of the 6.61% growth, or 22.9% share in that growth. Next up we have ZABA, which contributed 0.95%, or 14.3% share in the growth, Končar at 0.84%, or 12.7% share in total, and Ericsson NT and Adris (pref.), with 0.74% and 0.73%, contributing 11.2% and 11.1% to the overall index growth, respectively. This would mean that the top 5 stocks gave 4.78% out of the 6.61% overall index growth, or in other words, 72% of the index’s growth during the month came from these 5 stocks.
CROBEX10, similar to CROBEX, has almost the same composition, except it has 10 instead of 17 stocks, and it includes Arena Hospitality Group. As such, its price movements were also under the influence of similar stocks, with Podravka driving the price increase the most again, at 2.7%, or 40% of the total growth of CROBEX10 (6.8% MoM). Due to different weights in the index, Podravka is followed by Adris (pref.) and Končar, both contributing 1%, or 15% of the total to CROBEX10’s price growth, respectively. They are followed by Atlantic Grupa, which contributed 0.7%, or 11% of the total growth, and Hrvatski Telekom, which contributed 0.6%, or 7% of the total growth. This would mean that these 5 stocks contributed 88% to the growth of the index in January 2023.
