Croatian tourism entered 2025 with momentum, but Q1 results reflect a sector navigating between domestic resilience and global fragility. January brought encouraging growth, particularly from domestic travelers, while March revealed the weight of external pressures—from economic slowdowns in key markets to political uncertainty across Europe. In this quarterly review, we explore not just the headline figures but the deeper structural forces at play: is this performance the result of sound long-term strategy or simply short-term inertia riding on favorable global currents? As always, we leave that judgment to you.
In the first quarter of 2025, according to data from the e-Visitor system, foreign tourist arrivals totaled 572k, marking a notable decline of 16.55% compared to Q1 2024. In contrast, domestic tourist arrivals rose by 6.66%, reaching 463k. During the same period, foreign overnight stays amounted to 1.75m, representing a significant decrease of 15.67% YoY, while domestic overnight stays slightly increased to 999k, reflecting a 3.35% growth. In total, domestic and foreign arrivals combined reached 1.03m, down 7.54% YoY, with overall overnight stays amounting to 2.74m, a decline of 9.61% compared to the same period last year.
The data confirms a clear decline in Q1 for foreign tourist arrivals and overnight stays, down 16.55% and 15.67%, respectively. In contrast, domestic tourism recorded modest but stable growth, reflecting a positive shift in local demand. Traditionally viewed as less accessible to the domestic population, tourism is now showing signs of improved affordability—supported by recent fiscal measures, wage growth, and broader economic expansion. While this doesn’t imply that holidays are now broadly affordable for all residents, the increase in both domestic arrivals and overnight stays signals a meaningful and encouraging trend.
A breakdown of monthly performance shows that January was the only month to record growth across all major indicators compared to 2024. Domestic arrivals increased by 8% and overnight stays by 5%, while foreign arrivals rose by 10% and overnight stays by 7%. This positive start was largely driven by tourists visiting Croatia to celebrate the New Year and take advantage of the winter holiday season. In February, foreign arrivals declined slightly by 6%, with overnight stays down 3%, while domestic arrivals and overnight stays maintained a growth of 8% and 5%, respectively. March, however, brought a massive downturn in foreign tourism, with both arrivals and overnight stays falling by 29%, reflecting economic uncertainty and the impact of increasingly shaky global political conditions. Still, domestic tourism remained resilient, posting a 5% rise in arrivals and a modest 1% growth in overnight stays — a sign of stable, home-driven demand even amid wider instability.
Total tourist arrivals and nights in Croatia (March 2019 – March 2025)
Source: HTZ, InterCapital Research
During the January–March period, 92% of overnight stays were recorded in commercial accommodation, while non-commercial accommodation—referring to stays in private holiday homes outside the formal market—accounted for 7%, and nautical tourism made up the remaining 1%. Within the commercial segment, hotels accounted for the largest share with 60% of total traffic, followed by private family accommodation at 25%, campsites at 3%, and others at 12%. While nautical tourism continues to grow in strategic importance, its contribution during the winter months remains marginal, as expected, given the pronounced seasonality of this segment.
Domestic tourists accounted for the largest share of overnight stays in the January–March period, making up 36% of the total, followed by visitors from Slovenia (10%), Austria, Germany, and Bosnia and Herzegovina (6% each), with Serbia contributing 4%.
In terms of regional performance, Istria recorded the highest number of overnight stays at 630k, reaffirming its role as a classic winter escape known for its mild climate, excellent gastronomy, wine culture, and serene natural surroundings—an appealing choice for off-season relaxation. Istria was followed by Kvarner (481k), Zagreb (462k), Splitsko-Dalmatinska County (284k), and Dubrovačko-Neretvanska County (192k). At the lower end of the spectrum were Koprivničko-Križevačka (8.2k), Virovitičko-Podravska (9k), and Požeško-Slavonska (12.7k) counties, which continue to attract limited tourism activity in the winter season.
The year 2019 remains widely regarded as a benchmark for Croatian tourism, especially by the media, and is often cited as the record year that is difficult to surpass. When comparing Q1 2025 with Q1 2019, we observe solid positive developments overall. Total tourist arrivals increased by 8%, while total overnight stays rose by 15%. Foreign tourist arrivals were the only segment still in decline, down 10% compared to Q1 2019. In contrast, domestic arrivals surged by 42%, underscoring strong momentum and improved affordability among local travelers. This domestic strength contributed significantly to the overall +8% growth in total arrivals. Looking at overnight stays, foreign tourists recorded a 10% increase, while domestic overnights jumped by 27%, bringing total growth in overnight stays to +15% versus Q1 2019.
We will also highlight the latest data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, which reinforces overall travel activity trends. In February 2025, total passenger traffic at Croatian airports reached 320 thousand, representing a 9.2% increase YoY. Zagreb Airport accounted for the majority of this traffic with 259 thousand passengers (+6.8% YoY), which is not unusual for the winter period, followed by Split Airport with 34 thousand (+19.1%) and Dubrovnik Airport with 22 thousand passengers, showing a notable rise of 26.1%. The most significant volume of international air traffic was recorded with German airports, reaching 71 thousand passengers—a 10.7% increase compared to the same month last year. Meanwhile, freight traffic declined by 6.8%, totaling 673 tonnes.
Despite the steep decline in March, which pulled down overall Q1 performance, domestic demand proved to be a stabilizing factor. Positive signals in this segment are particularly encouraging—not only for the tourism sector but for the wider Croatian economy and its citizens. Backed by a solid macroeconomic backdrop, Croatia enters the main season with rising wages, above-average GDP growth, strong connectivity, and, notably, according to the latest Eurostat data, the highest level of safety among EU member states. Combined with a relatively low migrant burden and Croatia’s widely recognized natural appeal, the country holds a strong position in a highly competitive environment. Of course, inflation and price sensitivity remain key concerns. Last year’s season performed well despite media attention on pricing, but the question remains on how both tourists and domestic entrepreneurs will position themselves this year. Government measures aimed at curbing excessive prices—particularly in the housing and rental market—are underway, but their effects are not immediate and will become clearer only during or after the summer season. It is clear that high inflation is unattractive to tourists, and pricing will continue to be under scrutiny.
Beyond internal dynamics, external macroeconomic conditions—particularly in Western Europe—will play a decisive role. Growth remains sluggish across core EU markets, with elevated inflation, rising layoffs, and political instability shaping a challenging environment. Croatia, like the rest of the region, is not immune to these global shifts. We are situated on uncertain ground, where the trajectory of global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions could push Europe closer to recession. In this context, the performance of Croatia’s tourism sector will not only reflect global trends but could also influence domestic economic momentum in the months ahead. What is clear, however, is that a range of factors—both supportive and potentially disruptive—will shape performance. As the global environment remains volatile, Croatian tourism will continue to reflect that uncertainty, for better or worse.