According to the latest GDP release by the Slovenian Statistical Office, GDP growth on a YoY basis accelerates to 2.1% in Q1 2024.
The latest data for the Slovenian GDP has been released yesterday. According to the release, a significant increase in domestic expenditures has been recorded during Q1, the highest increase in the last year and a half. Breaking this down further, final consumption expenditures noted a 2% YoY increase, slightly lower growth compared to the previous quarter. Household consumption went up by 0.9% YoY. Furthermore, gross fixed capital formation grew just slightly by 0.6%, significantly less than in 2023 where growth rates amounted to high single-digit growth, mainly due to an increase in investments in buildings and structures. Changes in inventories contributed positively.
The external trade surplus contributed 0.2 of a percentage point to GDP growth. However, it is worth noting that a positive trade balance was achieved on the back of both lower exports & lower imports. Taking everything together, imports decreased by 0.9%, while export decreased as well by 0.6%. Breaking those categories further, imports of goods decreased by 0.1%, while imports of services decreased by 4.8%. On the other side of the equation, exports of services decreased by 7.1%, while exports of goods increased by 1.1% – overall resulting in a positive external trade surplus.
GDP by expenditures, constant prices, growth rates (%)
Source: SURS, InterCapital Research
All taken together, the previous quarter (Q4 2023) noted a positive growth rate, while the current quarter observed a more pronounced positive development in Slovenian GDP.
If we were to look at the value added by activities, the largest growth rate was recorded by the IT segment, which grew by 3.9% YoY in Q1 (6% in the previous quarter), contributing to overall growth. Besides this category, no notable increases have been recorded, with most categories ranging from 0 to 2% YoY growth. On the other hand, the largest YoY decrease was recorded by financial and insurance activities, which declined by 4.6% YoY, while in Q4 2023 it decreased even more pronounced by 10%. This segment was, at the time, under the influence of the natural disasters that affected Slovenia in July and August, which led to higher insurance claims and higher costs across the board. Higher interest rates also affected overall financial activity.
Slovenian GDP YoY growth rates (quarterly, real GDP growth rates, Q1 2015 – Q3 2023, %)
Source: SURS, InterCapital Research
