According to the latest release by the Slovenian Statistical Office, the CPI in September 2023 grew by 7.5% YoY (vs. 6.2% YoY the previous month!), and 0.3% MoM.
With the end of September, many EU countries have released their CPI estimates for the month, including Croatia and Slovenia. In this article, we’ll review the changes in Slovenia. According to the press release by the Slovenian Statistical Office, the CPI grew by 7.5% YoY, and 0.3% MoM. Breaking this down further, services on average grew by 8.4% YoY, followed by goods at 7%. In the goods category, non-durable goods recorded growth of 8.8%, semi-durable goods of 5.5%, and durable goods of 1%.
In terms of the impact on the annual inflation, 1.6 p.p. came from the 9.2% higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, 0.9 p.p. from 26.5% higher prices of electricity as a result of the elimination of the measure of reduced payment of contributions. Further, higher prices of recreation and culture, increasing by 7.8% contributed 0.8 p.p. The prices of goods and services in the health group grew by 10.7%, while Restaurants and hotels grew by 9.2% YoY in September. On the other hand, by 18.6% cheaper liquid fuels eased the annual inflation by 0.3 p.p.
Moving on to the monthly change, higher prices of electricity (+10% MoM!) added 0.4 p.p. to the monthly inflation. Higher prices of clothing and footwear contributed to 0.3 p.p. growth in monthly inflation. Catering services prices went up by 3.7% and pushed inflation up by 0.2 p.p. On the flipside, lower prices of package holidays decreased the overall inflation by 0.7 p.p., while lower prices of accommodation services (by 5.4%) and other services in respect of personal transport equipment each contributed to a 0.1 p.p. decrease in overall MoM inflation.
Slovenian CPI (January 2011 – September 2023, YoY, %)
Source: Slovenian Statistical Office, InterCapital Research
Taking a quick look at the harmonized index of consumer prices, its growth amounted to 7.1% YoY in September, while on the monthly level, it grew by 0.7%. On average, service prices increased by 8.1%, and goods by 6.5%. In the goods category, semi-durable goods prices increased by 5.7%, non-durable goods prices by 8.4%, while durable goods prices decreased by 0.2%. As compared to the Euro area flash estimate, published by ECB on Friday, inflation stood at 4.3% YoY in September. One can see that Slovenian inflation currently stands at a more elevated level.
