According to the latest release by the Slovenian Statistical Office, the CPI in October 2023 grew by 6.9% YoY (vs. 7.5% YoY the previous month), and 0.2% MoM.
With the end of October, many EU countries have released their CPI estimates for the month, including Slovenia (Croatia is publishing the same preliminary data today). In this article, we’ll review the changes in Slovenian CPI. According to the press release by the Slovenian Statistical Office, the CPI grew by 6.9% YoY, and 0.2% MoM. Breaking this down further, services on average grew by 8.1% YoY, followed by goods at 6.3%. In the goods category, non-durable goods recorded growth of 8.5%, semi-durable goods of 3.2%, and durable goods of 0.4%.
In terms of the impact on the annual inflation, 1.3 p.p. came from the 7.3% higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, 0.8 p.p. from 24.3% higher prices of electricity as a result of the elimination of the measure of reduced payment of contributions. Further, higher prices of recreation and culture, increasing by 7.1% contributed 0.7 p.p. The prices of goods and services in the health group grew by 11.4%, while Restaurants and hotels grew by 9.1% YoY in October. On the other hand, 14.1% cheaper liquid fuels and 2.7% cheaper purchase of vehicles, both eased the annual inflation by 0.2 p.p.
Moving on to the monthly change, higher prices of group clothing and footwear (+2.5% MoM) added 0.2 p.p. to the monthly inflation. Further, 0.1 p.p. to inflation was added in each of the following categories: fresh fruit, liquid fuels, diesel, pharmaceutical products and miscellaneous goods and services. However, on the flipside, lower prices of package holidays decreased the overall inflation by 0.2 p.p., while lower prices of heat energy, accommodation services and other prices each contributed to a 0.1 p.p. decrease in overall MoM inflation.
Slovenian CPI (January 2011 – October 2023, YoY, %)
Source: Slovenian Statistical Office, InterCapital Research
Taking a quick look at the harmonized index of consumer prices, its growth amounted to 6.6% YoY in October, while on the monthly level, it grew by 0.3% (the month before was 0.7%!). On average, service prices increased by 7.9%, and goods by 6%. In the goods category, non-durable goods prices increased by 8.3%, semi-durable goods prices by 3.4%, while durable goods prices increased slightly by 0.7%.
Finally, as a reminder, the Euro area flash estimate will be published by the ECB today, just like the Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the Croatian CPI estimate. So, today during the day you will be able to put inflation in the context of Euro area inflation. Looking at previous months, Slovenian inflation stood at a more elevated level.
