During November 2023, Slovenian CPI growth amounted to 4.9% YoY, but it also recorded a decline of 1% MoM, according to the Slovenian Statistical Office. We would like to point out that this is the first month in a long time that Slovenian CPI recorded a MoM decrease.
Yesterday, the Slovenian Statistical Office (SURS) released the latest CPI numbers for Slovenia, for the month of November 2023. According to the report, the Slovenian CPI growth amounted to 4.9% YoY, while it declined by 1% MoM. The 1% MoM decrease in inflation is especially positive news, as this is the first month in a long time that Slovenian CPI has recorded a decrease, signaling that inflation might have started cooling off. However, several consecutive months of inflationary decreases will be needed to know for sure if this is a one-off event or the start of a trend.
Slovenian CPI change (January 2011 – November 2023, YoY, %)
Source: Slovenian Statistical Office, InterCapital Research
Breaking this growth down to its components, on an annual basis, service prices grew by 7.4%, and goods prices by 3.6%. Inside this category, non-durable goods prices increased by 4.7% YoY, semi-durable goods by 2.3%, while durable goods grew by 0.6%. Meanwhile, food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded a 6.2% increase, contributing 1.1 p.p. to the annual CPI growth, the 6.7% higher prices of goods and services in the group recreation and culture contributed 0.7 p.p. to the growth, and finally, an 8.4% higher prices of restaurants and hotels contributed 0.6 p.p. to the annual CPI growth. On the other hand, the prices of solid fuels declined by 26.4% YoY, pushing the overall inflation down by 0.4 p.p. YoY.
Meanwhile, on a MoM basis, the largest impact on the 1% MoM deflation came from lower prices of electricity, which declined by 18.8%, as a result of the exemption from paying the OVE (renewable energy sources) and SPTE (cogeneration of heat and electricity) contribution. Furthermore, prices of solid fuels declined by 8.7% MoM, accommodation services by 4.2%, diesel and liquid fuels by 2.4%, petrol by 2.2%, health by 2.1%, and package holidays by 2%, combined with all other price decreases in November. On the other hand, fruit prices grew by 3.1%, different recreational items and equipment by 2.4%, tobacco by 2.2%, and footwear, by 0.8%. This contributed 0.1 p.p. to overall inflation.
In terms of the harmonized index of consumer prices, it grew by 4.5% YoY in November 2023 (November 2022: 10.8% YoY), while it declined by 0.8% MoM in November 2023 (October 2023: +0.3% MoM). On average, service prices went up by 7.1%, while goods prices increased by 3.2%. In the goods category, Non-durable goods prices increased by 4.4%, semi-durable goods prices by 2.3%, and durable goods prices decreased by 0.4% MoM. As compared to the European Monetary Union countries, where the average inflation was 2.9%, Slovenia is clearly above the mark. Furthermore, as compared to Croatia, Slovenia recorded 1 p.p. lower inflation in November 2023, as Croatia recorded an HICP of 5.5% YoY.
