According to provisional data published on Friday by the National Institute of Statistics, the Romanian GDP grew by 2.9% YoY in Q1 2023 and amounted to RON 318.5bn. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP in real terms increased by 2.4% YoY and 0.2% QoQ in Q1 2023.

Breaking the components of the GDP a bit further, on a YoY basis in Q1 2023 final consumption increased by 6.9% and amounted to RON 272.4bn. Inside this category, Households recorded growth of 7%, amounting to RON 237.6bn, while the General government increased by 6.4%, amounting to RON 23.7bn. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 10.4% YoY, amounting to RON 61bn, while net exports were recorded at RON -13.3bn. Exports increases 1.7% YoY, while imports increased at a slower rate of 0.2%.

Households still contribute the large majority of the Romanian GDP, comprising 74.6% of the total. General government accounts for 7.5%, in line with previous readings, while gross capital accounts for 19.1%. Net exports, while still negative, do show improving signs, with exports accelerating growth compared to imports.

Romania posting positive numbers even with the current uncertain macro outlook should pose an encouraging sign for foreign investors about the health of the economy. If the provisional data proves accurate, it would mean Romania has posted 8 straight quarters of positive GDP growth, with Q1 growth being the slowest, easing from a 4.5% expansion in the prior period, primarily due to government spending (6.4% vs 9.2% in Q4 of 2022) and fixed investment (10.4% vs 11.8%) slowing down.

Romania GDP growth (quarterly, vs. same quarter of the previous year, %)

Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research