In Q3 2023, the Romanian GDP in real terms grew by 0.9% QoQ, and 2.9% YoY. This would mean that the GDP in Q3 amounted to RON 434.5bn, a 1.1% increase YoY, while in 9M 2023, it amounted to RON 1.13tn, a 1.4% growth YoY.
The Romanian National Institute of Statistics has published its quarterly GDP flash estimate, for Q3 2023. According to the estimate, the Romanian GDP in real terms increased by 0.9% QoQ, and 2.9% YoY, amounting to RON 434.5bn (EUR 87.5bn) in Q3. Furthermore, looking at the whole 9 months of 2023, it amounted to RON 1.13tn (EUR 227.5bn).
Seasonally adjusted quarterly YoY GDP development (Q1 1996 – Q3 2023, %)
Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research
Looking at the contributors to this growth, during Q3, Agriculture, forestry and fishing with an 11.9% share in GDP contributed 0.8 p.p. to the quarterly YoY GDP growth. Construction with 5% of GDP contributed another 0.4 p.p., and Information and communication with 6.7% of GDP contributed 0.2 p.p. to quarterly YoY GDP growth. On the other hand, Minning and quarrying; manufacturing; electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning production and supply; water supply; sewerage, waste management and decontamination activities, with 20.1% of GDP (largest share), recorded -0.4 p.p. to GDP change. Wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; transport and storage; hotels and restaurants, with 14.9% share, also contributed a -0.1 p.p. to GDP change.
Moving on to GDP change by expenditures, Total final consumption contributed 0.1 p.p. to Q3 GDP growth, while it contributed 2.2 p.p. during the 9M period. Of this, actual individual consumption expenditure of households contributed 0.3 p.p. during Q3 and 1.5 p.p. in 9M. Gross fixed capital formation contributed 3.7 p.p. during Q3, and 2.8 p.p. during 9M. Finally, net exports growth amounted to 2.1 p.p. during Q3, and 1.3 p.p. during 9M.
GDP change contribution by expenditures (Q3 2023, p.p.)
| wdt_ID | Category | Contribution to Q3 2023 growth (p.p.) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Total final consumption | 0.1 |
| 2 | Actual individual consumption of households | 0.3 |
| 3 | Final consumption expenditure of households | 0.5 |
| 4 | Final consumption expenditure of Non-profit institutions serving households | 0 |
| 5 | Individual final consumption expenditure of General government | -0.2 |
| 6 | Collective final consumption expenditure of General government | -0.2 |
| 7 | Gross fixed capital formation | 3.7 |
| 8 | Change in inventories | -4.8 |
| 9 | Net export | 2.1 |
| 10 | Export of goods and services | -1.1 |
Source: Romanian National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research
As we can see, the Romanian economy continues to expand despite the challenging macroeconomic environment. The situation for the country is slightly more uncertain due to foreign exchange risk, as compared to EU member countries. Even so, the growth continues.
It should be noted that as we can see from the data, the growth is coming from several directions, including households, increases in exports, as well as government investments. Given the discrepancy between Romania and the EU living standards, the country is also able to pull significant funds from various EU funds. In fact, according to the latest available data for 2022, Romania managed to reach 77% of the EU 27 standard in terms of the GDP per capita in purchasing power parity standard. To put this into perspective, back in 2009 Romania was at 52% of the EU average, meaning that in 13 years it has managed to close the gap by 25 p.p. What is even more remarkable is the fact that many of the EU economies did not record significant GDP development during the last decade, meaning that while most other economies remained stagnant, Romania grew and caught up.
