According to the latest Romanian Institute of Statistics release, the CPI in September 2023 grew by 8.8% YoY and 0.8% MoM.

On Friday, the Romanian Institute of Statistics released the latest CPI numbers for the month of September 2023. According to the report, the Romanian CPI grew by 8.8% YoY, and 0.8% MoM. Even though this might seem like a decrease on a YoY basis, this would come from the higher base in the same month last year, rather than the genuine slowdown in price growth. The continued MoM increase (0.8% MoM this month, 0.5% MoM last month) means that inflation growth is far from over.

Romanian CPI (January 2020 – September 2023, YoY, %)

Source: Romanian Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research

Regarding the impact on the annual inflation by group, Services noted the most pronounced growth in prices by 12.1% YoY in September. Services are followed by Food goods (+10.4%!) and Non-food goods (+6.7%). However, the dynamics in price increases might even give us a more informative picture. Comparing September prices to the end of the year (December 2022) one can notice that Food prices increased  4.9%, while YoY the prices increased the aforementioned 10.4%, while Non-food goods and services noted a less pronounced difference in growth if we were to compare YTD and YoY price increases. This means that since the beginning of the year, Food goods contributed the most to the overall CPI growth. For example, Non-food goods increased by 6.7% as already stated, while compared to December 2022 this category has already increased by 5.1%. This means that since the year, Non-food prices increased only c.1%.

Taking a quick look at the latest available inflation numbers for the harmonized index of consumer prices, its growth amounted to 9.3% YoY in October. Compared to the Euro area, published by the ECB, inflation stood at 5.9% YoY in the same month. One can see that Romanian inflation currently stands at a more elevated level.