Yesterday, the Romanian National Institute of Statistics released the October 2023 CPI information. According to the report, the Romanian CPI grew by 8.1% YoY, and 0.6% MoM during October 2023.

Inflation rates in Romania remain elevated, especially compared to other European (and especially Eurozone) countries. Last month, the country recorded 8.8% YoY CPI growth, which has slowed to 8.1% this month. However, the CPI continues to grow on a MoM basis, by 0.6% as compared to 0.8% in the same period last month. As such, the slowdown in the CPI is far from over, and the CPI “decrease” on a YoY basis could also be a result of a higher base during the same period last year, as Romania recorded one of the largest CPI growth YoY during 2022.

Romanian CPI (January 2020 – October 2023, YoY, %)

Source: National Institute of Statistics, InterCapital Research

On the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) basis, the CPI recorded a 0.6% MoM increase and an 8.3% YoY increase. Compared to other European countries, Romania actually recorded the largest HICP increase, followed by Slovakia at 7.8%, Croatia at 6.7%, and Slovenia, at 6.6%.

HICP YoY change comparison with select European countries (October 2023, YoY, %)

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, InterCapital Research

Breaking the CPI growth down by components, on a MoM basis, Food goods grew by 0.7%, Non-food goods by 0.4%, and Services by 0.8%. Meanwhile, on a YTD basis, Food goods prices grew by 5.7%, Non-food goods by 5.5%, and Services by 10%. Finally, on an annual basis, Food goods increased by 8.7%, Non-food goods by 6.2%, and Services by 12.2%.

Romanian CPI growth by categories YoY (left), YTD (right) (October 2023, %)

Source: National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, InterCapital Research