Luka Koper published a summary of the 2023 business plan as well as the 2022 business performance estimates, and today we are bringing you a detailed overview.

Starting off with the forecast of business performance for 2022, the Company said that despite the difficult circumstances in 2022, they managed to achieve a very good 2022 result. Because of the solid results achieved in the period January – August 2022, as well as the harsh economic conditions, mainly due to the war in Ukraine and the situation in the energy markets, which was reflected mostly in the increases of energy prices and high inflation, they drew up a revised 2022 business plan.

Compared to the previous year, Luka Koper recorded growth in throughput in all commodities groups. By the end of the year, they estimate that the maritime throughput should achieve 22.9m tonnes, which is an increase of 10% YoY and at the 2022 planned level. The throughput will be higher in container and cars strategic commodities groups, despite irregular vessel arrivals, occasional interruptions of supply chains, and unpredictable developments in global markets. The throughput of liquid cargoes in 2022 was marked by a modest recovery of the jet fuel throughput. The higher throughput of dry bulk cargoes was primarily attributable to the throughput of road salt and additional quantities of coal.

Based on these results, as well as forecasts until the end of the year, Luka Koper estimates that net sales will amount to EUR 302.9m, an increase of 33% of EUR 74.4m YoY, and at the 2022 plan level. Compared to 2021, the increase was recorded mostly in storage charges, as a result of higher storage times in warehouses due to the global logistics market conditions. However, with the gradual normalization of the situation, the growth of the above-mentioned revenue is expected to slow down by the end of 2022. EBIT should amount to EUR 70.7m, an increase of 125% or EUR 39.m YoY and 1% compared to the plan. Net profit should amount to EUR 64.9m, an increase of 104% or EUR 33.1m YoY, and 2% ahead of the 2022 plan.

Moving on to the estimate for 2023, Luka Koper notes that institutions such as IMF, OECD, and UMAR forecast harsh economic conditions in 2023. The Russian invasion of Ukraine destabilized the world economy and led to a severe energy crisis in Europe, resulting in a sharp rise in the cost of living, from food to the energy crisis. Because of this, all the above-mentioned institutions forecast slower growth in 2023.

In this environment, Luka Koper expects that 2023 maritime throughput to amount to 23.3m tonnes, an increase of 2% YoY. The throughput growth is expected in all commodities groups, excluding liquid cargoes, since the throughput of jet fuel is still low. Maritime container throughput should amount to 1,089,000 container units TEU, which is an increase of 5% YoY. Car transshipment should amount to 760k vehicles, which is a 1% increase in 2022.

Higher revenue from the increased volume of core throughput and additional services, as well as higher prices, can be expected. At the same time, the planned revenue from storage should be 4% lower. The higher storage revenue in 2022 was attributed to longer storage times of goods in warehouses. In Q3 2022, the trend of decline of this revenue was recorded, and this is expected to continue in 2023.

EBIT should be 51% lower, while net profit should be 50% lower, due to lower net revenue, lower revenue from storage, and lower other revenue. Higher inflationary pressures will be reflected in cost growth but despite that the op. result of Luka Koper in 2023 is planned to amount to EUR 33.4m, comparable to 2022, excl. the impact of revenue from storage. Finally, in 2023, investments into increasing the Container terminal capacities, and construction of additional open storage areas for car transshipment, among others, are expected. EUR 14.5m is also planned for sustainable development projects, which is 24.7% of total planned investments.

Key Performance Indicators of Luka Koper in 2023

Source: Luka Koper, InterCapital Research