By the end of October 2023, the industrial producer prices on the domestic market declined by 1.1% MoM, and 0.5% YoY.
According to the latest report by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, during October 2023, the industrial producer prices on the domestic market have recorded a stagnation after over 2 and a half years of continued growth. As such, the industrial producer prices on the domestic market declined by 1.1% MoM, and 0.5% YoY.
Industrial producer prices YoY growth (January 2021 – October 2023, %)
Source: DZS, InterCapital Research
Meanwhile, the industry producer prices, excluding Energy, recorded a 0.1% decline MoM, but a 2.1% increase YoY. Breaking the growth down by categories, on a MoM basis, producer prices in Non-durable consumer goods grew by 0.2%, they remained stable in Intermediate goods and Durable consumer goods, while they decreased in Capital goods, by 1.1%, and in Energy, by 3.3%. Moving on to the YoY basis, producer prices in Non-durable consumer goods grew by 4.8%, and in Durable consumer goods by 2.9%. At the same time, the prices decreased in Energy, by 5.6% YoY, in Capital goods, by 1.3%, and in Intermediate goods, by 0.4%.
At the same time, looking at the breakdown according to industrial sections, on an MoM basis, producer prices in Mining and quarrying grew by 3%, and they remained stable in Water supply; sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities (Water supply), while they decreased in Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, by 4.1%, and in Manufacturing, by 0.6%. On the other hand, on a YoY basis, producer prices in Electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply increased by 1.6%, in Manufacturing by 0.9%, and in Water supply by 0.6%. Meanwhile, in Mining and quarrying, the industrial producer prices declined by 42.7% YoY.
Total industrial producer prices growth by categories vs. 2015 (October 2023, 2015=0, %)
Source: DZS, InterCapital Research
Since 2015, producer prices in the overall industry have grown by 45.9% as of October 2023. Excluding Energy, the growth amounted to 17.5%. Breaking this down further, prices in Energy increased by 126.5% since 2015, in Intermediate goods by 19.9%, in Non-durable consumer goods by 19.7%, in Durable consumer goods by 18.1%, and in Capital goods by 7.5%.
The news regarding the stagnation in the growth of industrial producer prices is a positive one. However, as we can see from the past 2 years, it takes a prolonged period of elevated prices for them to influence consumer prices. As such, a longer period of decreases in producer prices, especially on a MoM basis is required. If this happens, a reduction in the CPI could also be expected.
