Yesterday, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics released the latest flash estimate for the Croatian GDP growth in Q4 2023. According to the first estimate for 2023, in real terms, the Croatian GDP grew by 2.8% YoY and amounted to EUR 75.9bn. Looking only at Q4, Croatia’s GDP noted even more pronounced 4.3% YoY growth. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP in real terms increased by 1.3% QoQ and 4.3% YoY in Q4 2023.
Looking at the first estimates for the Croatian GDP, released yesterday by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS), the Croatian GDP grew by 2.8% YoY in real terms during the entire 2023. Taking into account only Q4, Croatia’s GDP noted a 4.3% YoY growth – currently the highest one achieved in the EU. In terms of the seasonally adjusted quarterly data, in real terms, during Q4 only, the GDP increased by 1.3% QoQ, and 4.3% YoY. This would also mean that on a full-year basis, it amounted to EUR 75.9bn, while in Q4 2023, it amounted to EUR 18.7bn.
Croatian GDP growth (YoY, %)*
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research
*Quarterly Gross Domestic Product, seasonally adjusted real growth rate
Breaking the components of the GDP a bit further, on a YoY basis, in 2023 final consumption expenditure increased by 3.5%. Inside this category, Households noted growth of 5.3%, NPISH noted a double-digit decrease of 11.5% YoY, while the General government remained flat (+0.2% YoY). Both last year and this year, the biggest contribution to growth is a real increase in personal consumption, which came on the back of the wage growth. Taking into account wage growth during Q4, it reported a steep increase to 10.3% (from 8.2% in the previous quarter). Gross capital formation increased by 6% YoY. Wage growth can mainly be attributed to the shortage of labor, and a decrease in inflation, but also to generous improvements in collective agreements in the public sector. During last year, nominal wage growth was strongly above EU levels. Exports of goods and services decreased by 4.4% YoY, amounting to EUR 34.7bn while imports of goods and services decreased by 7.1%, implying that exports declined at a slower pace than the imports. Finally, the biggest gross value added came from Construction and Wholesale and retail trade, transportation, storage, accommodation and food service activities, followed by Financial and insurance activities.
Lastly, during previous quarters, GDP managed to outperform Eurostat’s forecasts. However, currently, there are no Q4 estimates available for Croatia. However, taking into account available estimates for other available countries, Croatia’s GDP growth rate could end up being one of the highest in the EU on the back of strong Q4 growth. The growth rate for Q4 was elevated even when compared the the previous three quarters of 2023. The total EU average amounts to 0.1% YoY growth in Q4 2023.
