According to the first ever flash estimate of the Croatian CPI, it grew by 12.7% and remained roughly the same MoM.
With the entry of Croatia into the Eurozone, the Croatian Statistical Office (DZS) has announced that it will start releasing the so-called “flash estimates” for the Croatian CPI, on the same day as Eurostat’s HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices). The flash estimate will be the 1st estimate of the CPI for the previous month. It will be based on roughly 80% of the received and processed data, and data across countries in the EU will be comparable through the HICP.
Coming back to the CPI, the first estimate is that it grew by 12.7% YoY in January 2023, while on an MoM basis, the prices have remained roughly the same.
CPI (January 2013 – January 2023*, %)
Source: DZS, InterCapital Research
*Data based on the 1st estimate
Observing the selected groups, on the annual basis, Food, beverages and tobacco increased by 15.4%, Energy by 13.8%, Non-food industrial goods without energy by 12.1%, while Services increased by 9.3%. On the monthly basis, Food, beverages and tobacco increased by 1.3%, Services by 1.1%, while a decrease is estimated in the groups’ Non-food industrial goods without energy, by 2.1%, and Energy, by 1%.
The final data for the CPI in January 2023, will be released on 23 February 2023.
Compared to the full release of the CPI, the flash estimate contains a lot less data as well as no detailed breakdown of the CPI or its growth drivers. However, if the estimate turns out to be correct, the CPI of 12.7% is actually at the same level as the 13.1% last month. This is because the CPI in January 2022 was the same amount higher compared to the CPI in December 2021, as is the CPI in January 2023 as compared to December 2022. Because of this, even though the CPI on the annual level is “lower”, it’s only lower due to the higher base in the same month last year, signaling that inflation is actually not slowing down. Looking at categories, we can see that Energy is actually slowing down/decreasing, which is to be expected due to the decrease in gas/electricity prices, both due to warmer than expected winter, but also due to higher storage of gas across Europe for this time period. Food, beverages and tobacco has continued growing, and considering the amount of news we have seen after the introduction of the euro about price increases of the products in these categories, it will be interesting to see a full breakdown once the entire CPI release is published.
