According to the flash estimate by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, the Croatian CPI in January 2024 grew by 4.1% YoY but decreased by 0.4% MoM. The final release will be published on 22 February 2024, and changes might occur until then.
Yesterday, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics released the latest flash estimate for the Croatian CPI, for the month of January 2024. According to the flash estimate, the Croatian CPI grew by 4.1% YoY but decreased by 0.4% at the end of January.
Croatian CPI YoY growth (February 2013 – January 2024, %)
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research
Breaking this change down into main components of the index, on a yearly basis, Food, beverages, and tobacco recorded an increase of 7.1%, Services grew by 5.9%, Non-food industrial goods without energy by 3%, while prices in Energy decreased by 0.6%.
Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, Food, beverages, and tobacco increased by 1.1%, Services grew by 0.7%, while Non-food industrial goods without energy declined by 3.1%, and Energy decreased by 0.6%.
Furthermore, according to Eurostat’s release of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), in January 2024 Euro area annual inflation amounted to 2.8%. Meanwhile, Croatia recorded a YoY HICP increase of 4.8%, while on a MoM basis, HICP decreased by 0.3%.
Comparison of HICP change with available European countries (January 2024, YoY, %)
Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research
Compared to other available European countries, Croatia stands 2nd with the highest HICP, right behind Estonia’s 5%. Austria and Slovakia recorded 4.3% growth, Malta 3.6%, Spain 3.5%, and France 3.4%. In other words, even though there was an improvement in the HICP, the yearly data show us that Croatia still ranks as one of the most affected countries in terms of price growth.
Comparison of HICP change with available European countries (January 2024, MoM, %)
Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research
Meanwhile, on the MoM basis, most of the European countries recorded a decrease in the HICP, with only Estonia, Latvia, and Slovakia noting >0.5% increase, at 1.3%, 0.7%, and 0.6%, respectively. Croatia was placed somewhere right in the middle of the observed countries.
While the slowdown in inflationary growth is clearly present, for example, last month it amounted to 4.5%, and the month before at 4.7%, one has to take into account the base effect. In the comparable period at the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, Croatian CPI reached its highest level in years. This would mean that although there is a clear trend of slowdown, elevated inflation even when dropping plays a more significant role due to that high base last year.
