As of March 2025, Croatia recorded a CPI increase of 3.2% YoY and a 0.4% MoM rise, indicating a continued easing of inflationary pressures compared to earlier months, though momentum persists. The slowdown is visible on both an annual and monthly basis, suggesting a gradual cooling phase. In contrast, Slovenia posted a CPI increase of 2.0% YoY and 0.6% MoM, placing it broadly in line with the ECB’s inflation target. This reflects a more balanced inflation environment, supported by contained domestic demand and effective macroeconomic policy coordination.
Croatia
Based on the latest CPI data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, the downward trend in the annual inflation rate has continued, decreasing by 0.4 p.p. to 3.2% in March, down from 3.6% in February. On a monthly basis, the index recorded a slight increase of 0.4%.
Following a persistent rise in CPI from September 2024 to February 2025—driven by strong wage growth, robust GDP expansion, and high employment levels—the economy has now entered a deceleration phase. Although inflation is on a downward trajectory, the current annual rate still reflects an unfavorable macroeconomic environment and remains under close scrutiny.
Croatian CPI YoY growth rate (March 2015 – March 2025, %)
Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research
Disaggregating the data, the main contributor on an annual basis remains the services category, with a 6.0% increase. It is followed by food, beverages, and tobacco, up 4.4%, while energy posted a modest 2.1% rise. The only component to decline annually was non-food industrial goods excluding energy, which fell by 0.2%.
Conversely, this same component—non-food industrial goods excluding energy—was the biggest driver of the monthly CPI increase, rising 2.1% MoM. Services also contributed, with a 0.7% monthly increase. Meanwhile, energy and food, beverages, and tobacco both declined on a monthly basis, by 1.2% and 0.2%, respectively.
Slovenia
According to data from the Slovenian Statistical Office, the annual CPI increased by 2.0% YoY in March 2025, marking a further deceleration from 3.6% in March 2024. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.6%. With March 2025 inflation at 2.0% YoY, the country is exactly in line with the ECB’s target rate.
The key contributors to annual inflation were higher prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, up by 3.5% YoY, contributing 0.7 p.p. to headline inflation. Services prices increased by 3.4% annually, while goods prices rose by 1.3%. Within the goods segment, semi-durable goods were 2.2% more expensive and non-durable goods rose by 1.7%, whereas durable goods saw a 0.8% annual decline.
Health-related services and the restaurant and hotel segment also had a notable impact, both contributing 0.3 p.p. to annual inflation, with prices up by 5.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Other categories that added 0.2 p.p. each included clothing and footwear (+2.5%), recreation and culture (+2.3%), miscellaneous goods and services (+2.3%), and transport (+1.0%). On the opposite side, the only significant drag on annual inflation came from housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, where prices fell by 1.2%, subtracting 0.2 p.p. from the annual rate.
Slovenian CPI YoY growth rate (March 2015 – March 2025, %)
Source: SURS, InterCapital Research
On a monthly basis, CPI increased by 0.6%, primarily driven by higher prices of clothing and footwear, and electricity.
Clothing prices surged by 9.4% MoM due to the arrival of the spring-summer collection and the end of seasonal discounts, contributing 0.4 p.p. to the monthly inflation. Footwear prices rose by 5.9%, adding 0.1 p.p..
Electricity prices jumped 16.5% MoM, driving a 7.5% increase in the broader housing, gas, and energy group and contributing an additional 0.4 p.p. to the monthly CPI.
Smaller upward pressures came from outpatient services (+4.9%), other recreational items and equipment, including pets (+2.9%), and food (+0.7%), each contributing 0.1 p.p..
Offsetting the monthly inflation was a 14.8% decline in package holiday prices, which coincided with the end of the winter season and subtracted 0.6 p.p. from the index. Operation of personal transport equipment also had a slight negative impact, subtracting 0.1 p.p., as petrol and diesel prices dropped by 1.4%.
Harmonized index of consumer prices in the EU (HICP)
Croatia’s harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) rose by 4.3% YoY in March 2025, slowing down from 4.8% in February. On a monthly basis, prices increased by 0.5%. The data signals stronger price momentum in Croatia relative to most regional peers, with annual inflation still exceeding the EU and EMU averages. In contrast, Slovenia’s HICP rose by 2.2% YoY in March, continuing its disinflation trend from 3.4% a year earlier. On a monthly basis, Slovenian HICP increased by 0.8%.
HICP YoY change for selected EU countries (March 2025, %)
Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research
In March 2025, HICP inflation in the euro area stood at 2.2%, edging down slightly from the previous month. France recorded the lowest annual rate at 0.9%, while Estonia, Croatia, and Slovakia registered the highest, both at 4.3%. Slovenia’s inflation matched the euro area average at 2.2%, remaining notably below Croatia’s reading. Note that this flash update reflects the most recent data available at the time of publication.
Croatia’s inflation continues to run above the euro area average, reflecting persistent domestic price pressures despite signs of gradual easing. In contrast, Slovenia maintains a more balanced inflation profile, with price growth consistent with the broader objective of stability. While some eurozone members are experiencing clear disinflation, the regional picture remains mixed. Core components like services and food continue to drive underlying pressures, suggesting that the path back to full price stability will remain uneven across member states.