As of April 2025, Croatia saw a CPI increase of 3.1% YoY and 0.6% MoM, marking a slight deceleration in annual inflation but a clear reacceleration on a monthly basis, driven by non-food goods and services. In Slovenia, inflation grew by 2.3% YoY and surged 1.3% MoM, largely due to seasonal pressures including travel and apparel-related items. Despite short-term volatility, inflation in Slovenia remains in check and aligned with Euro area dynamics.

Croatia

Based on the latest flash estimate from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, annual CPI eased by 0.1 p.p. YoY to 3.1%, pointing to a modest deceleration in headline inflation after 3.2% recorded in March 2025. On a monthly basis, however, CPI increased by 0.6%, up from 0.4% MoM in March, indicating a pick-up in short-term inflationary momentum as spring consumption and pre-tourism season dynamics took hold.

Croatian CPI YoY growth rate (April 2015 – April 2025, %)

Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research

Examining the CPI components, services continue to dominate inflationary contributions with 6.1% YoY growth, followed by food, beverages and tobacco at 4.1% YoY. Energy prices, which were more volatile in 2023 and early 2024, grew by only 1.1% YoY in April. Meanwhile, non-food industrial goods excluding energy saw only a marginal increase of 0.3% YoY, reflecting still-subdued underlying core goods inflation.

On a monthly basis, inflation was mainly driven by a 1.7% increase in non-food industrial goods excluding energy, followed by services up by 0.8%, and food, beverages, and tobacco higher by 0.4%. Energy was the only component to post a negative monthly rate, down 1.1%, which helped ease some of the upward pressure from the other categories.

Despite the relative annual deceleration, Croatia continues to experience structural inflationary pressures, supported by strong wage growth, fiscal expansion, and rising domestic demand. Services-related inflation is likely to stay elevated as the country enters the peak tourism season.

Slovenia

According to data from the Slovenian Statistical Office, the CPI in April 2025 increased by 2.3% YoY and 1.3% MoM. This marks a 0.7 p.p. easing in annual inflation compared to the same month last year, when the CPI stood at 3.0%. Despite this YoY moderation, the sharp MoM increase reflects seasonal dynamics and specific category surges.

Slovenian CPI YoY growth rate (April 2015 – April 2025, %)

Source: SURS, InterCapital Research

The annual increase was most influenced by a 5.9% YoY rise in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, contributing 1.1 p.p. to headline inflation. Other contributors included clothing and footwear (4.2%), recreation and culture (3.0%), and restaurants and hotels (4.4%), each adding 0.3 p.p. Service prices increased by 3.2% YoY, while goods prices rose by 1.8%, with semi-durables up 3.9% and non-durables up 1.9%. Durable goods, however, continued to decline, falling 0.3% YoY.

On a monthly basis, April’s sharp MoM inflation was led by a 13.6% rise in package holiday prices, adding 0.5 p.p. to the monthly figure. Footwear prices increased by 20.0%, contributing 0.4 p.p., and smaller additions came from air transport, sporting goods, accommodation, vegetables, and meat. Conversely, inflation was pulled down by 0.1 p.p. each from lower prices of liquid fuels (down 6.3%), fuels and lubricants for personal transport (down 3.1%), and non-durable household goods (down 4.1%).

Package holidays are hardly a rare inflation trigger in Slovenia — in fact, they’ve become something of a seasonal classic. As April’s 13.6% price surge once again shows, Slovenians clearly aren’t shy when it comes to spending on getaways, and their inflation data continues to reflect it.

The harmonised index of consumer prices in the EU (HICP)

The harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) shows that Croatia recorded an annual increase of 3.9% in April 2025, alongside a 0.7% MoM rise, reaffirming its position among the Eurozone’s higher-inflation countries. Slovenia, by comparison, posted a more moderate 2.3% YoY and 0.8% MoM, closely mirroring the Euro area average and reinforcing the view that its inflation remains well-anchored despite temporary monthly fluctuations.

HICP YoY change for selected EU countries (April 2025, %)

Source: Eurostat, InterCapital Research

In April, Croatia’s HICP once again stood significantly above both the Euro area average of 2.3%, highlighting the persistence of domestic price pressures. Slovenia, in contrast, remained comfortably within the European median, underlining a more contained inflationary environment. This divergence illustrates the ongoing fragmentation within the EU, as some member states continue to battle structural inflation while others are gradually converging toward the ECB’s 2% target.

Overall, this data reinforces Croatia’s role as an outlier in the regional disinflation story, with elevated inflation still underpinned by strong internal demand and a tight labor market. Slovenia, meanwhile, continues to reflect a more cyclical and seasonally influenced pattern, staying broadly aligned with the Euro area trend. The contrast between the two underscores the uneven nature of inflation normalization across the monetary union.