Pressure on prices continues as CPI increases in September to 3.3%. The growth was mostly driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages prices, which as the largest component of CPI of 27.2%, grew 2.9% YoY. The growth was also driven by transport prices, which as the second largest component of CPI with 13.3%, rose 10.8% YoY.

In September 2021, the prices of goods and services for personal consumption, measured by the consumer price index, increased by 3.3% YoY on average. Meanwhile, on the annual average, they increased by 1.3%.

CPI for the first nine months of this year compared to the same period last year shows a rise in consumer prices of 1.8%, while we expect 2021 annual average slightly above this level. The growth was mostly driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages prices, which as the largest component of CPI of 27.2%, grew 2.9% YoY. The growth was also driven by transport prices, which as the second largest component of CPI with 13.3%, rose 10.8% YoY.

CPI (January 2013 – September 2021)*

Source:  Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research

*Annual change

Viewed by main groups by purpose of consumption, in September 2021, the highest relative increase was observed in the transport segment which noted an increase of 10.8%. Within the segment, operation of personal transport equipment increased by 14.6%, while air transport increased by as much as 39.3%. At the same time, Food and non-alcoholic beverages segment noted an increase of 2.9%. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco noted an increase of 5.6%, which mostly came on the higher tobacco prices (+7.1% YoY).

Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels noted an increase of 2.4%. Within the segment, liquid fuels noted a sharp increase of 56.8% YoY, while gas increased by 11.9%.

The only segment to note a YoY decrease is clothing and footwear (-2.6%), which holds a share of 5.68% in CPI. However, on a MoM basis, the highest increase was recorded in this segment, by 17.1% on average. This could be attributed to new collection of clothing and footwear.

Looking at the MoM basis, prices of Transport increased by 0.9% on average, while the prices of Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance increased by 0.5% on average. The increase in the consumer price indices in September 2021, as compared to August 2021, was alleviated by a decrease of 1.9% on average in the prices of Restaurants and hotels (lower prices of accommodation services), of 0.1% (in each group) on average in the prices of Food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as in the prices of Recreation and culture.

CPI Sector Breakdown – September 2021 (%)

Source:  Croatian Bureau of Statistics, InterCapital Research